Member Info for JohnLewis79

Sterling despite small drop yesterday on the latest YouGov poll is up c.1.6% this month and c.6% last few. Foreign Exchange mrkts are very reliable in predicting election results.

A mate of mine reckons c.35 seat majority for the Blues but he lumped on Man C to win the Prem this year, heh heh heh.

Opening premium on Saudi Aramco stock first dealings at 35.20 SAR.

CPO is averaging $672 over last 30 days. Prices are off their $737 intraday high current $722 but well above the 30 day low of $633.
Most estates will turn a buck at those prices even REA, well I don't know about that... but best stay put and hope $700 holds to end year.

There will be 50 shades of gloom if Labour enter No 10 on Friday morning. Some say this scenario is in part 'priced in'. I dont bloody believe it!
My best guess is the ftse would slump 5%-10% on day one, after all the ftse had a one day slump near 3.5% on global trade fears back in April 2019. Think what 5 years of Labour would do to the economy!

Its getting mighty close for nervous investors to act if you fear the worst.
I suspect most pis will do nothing taking a long term view and praying the Marxist mob are deserted by 'old Labour' switching to the Tories getting the blues over the line.

I'm hoping that the "undecideds" will in the voting booth tick Tory as the pound in their pocket & the UK economy will be better protected under a Tory Govt as indiscriminate borrowings by Labour is the road to ruin. If you voted leave why on earth vote for the Undems who want to cancel Brexit? Why vote Labour who have a leader sitting on the fence not knowing which side to back?

The choice is plain. Vote Blue for a future vote red for the past.

I could do with a change as I have been s**t out of luck of late. Mind you I will be rooting for Booooris to have a workable win.
Come to rethink the bet I don't know why I did it, must have been a boozy lunch wot dun it!

US mrkts opened lower off 94 at days low but soon started recovering down just 17 as London closed at (7214).
Moves to impeach Trump on high crimes and misdemeanours (abuse of power and obstruction of Congress) was largely ignored as investors preferred to focus on the USMCA regional trade deal backed by the Democrats, designed by Republicans.

China trade news seems to indicate further delays and the Dec 15 extra tariffs will be pushed back.
US negotiators are trying to get Beijing to commit to Trumps agricultural purchase terms on soybean and poultry. Not much doing on that score to date.
There was little news on the economy, softer than expected Q3 productivity data saw a steep drop in labour costs which was welcome.

However investors sights are now almost exclusively on 2020 and the election. Gold is very popular as a store against economic shocks and investors are storing up on the yellow metal. Gold bulls are hedging against political uncertainties and recessionary / trade fears. As are twitchy investors fearing a 'scary event' in 2020. They have been buying S&P 500 puts in unprecedented volumes worried that a Socialist could enter the White House and damage the business environment and /or China conflict gets out of hand. Either of these could cause a severe sell off in toppy stocks. 'Put' prices have skyrocketed.

Stocks have had a quiet day, Netflix fell $9 ($293) on broker downgrades, competition worries and targeted by shorters has a "Don't Touch" tag.
Boeing off $3 ($348) down amongst the laggards while Apple, Nike, Amex and Merck on the up escalator. The other FAANG stocks have benefited from some switching out of Netflix which incidentally is the best performing stock by a country mile these last 10 years, up c. 3767% since IPO that's compounding at 44% pa.
Saudi Aramco has first dealings today on the Tadawul Exchange. Few western investors bght stock in SA.
The Dow ended the day falling 28 (27882) the 500 down 3 (3133) and Nsdq fell 6 (8616). Crude fell c33 ($58.91) and the 10yr t/bill 1.84%.

A very small selected rally in stocks in Asia this morning. Trade hopes are for the $165bn on Chinese imports (15% duty) will be kicked down the road by Trump. China extended ($197bn) in New loans to businesses and customers in Nov as broad money supply grew at 8% yet demand still remains sluggish. Towards close TK -46, HK +91 & SH up 5.

The nos:- Oil $ 63.97.
Gold $1467. Palm $720.
Vix 15.8. $ 1.313. € 1.184.
PI 7477 (+12). FP 7854 (-52). FF +9. DF +13.
Morning all.

No overall majority has been cut to 11/4 on tactical voting worries.
With the Tory majority heading to perhaps 7 I've had a punt at 3s on NOM with my local bookie.

Cpo fell back $6 to $723 despite a larger than expected Mal Nov output fall.
Whatever a few had called palm lower as prices had run out of steam and were ripe for some trimming.
London palm again little movement only Anglo and Mpe gained a touch as GE concerns take centre stage. Few dare risk opening positions ahead of the result.
Cpo(r) 4.15 losing ground v CPO value. Today just 1 trade (5000 at 178.40) REA sp down the bid off 5 at 168-80 & DKL slipped 0.10 but lse nos have been very unreliable of late, closing and opening prices rarely the same.

GDP nos just out show zero growth in the economy during the last Q to Oct. I wonder why? And a tax and spend Marxist Govt is going to boost the economy? Get real Jer!

Have a word with your Venezuelan chums they'll give you a few pointers on bankrupting businesses and the wealth creators which you so want so as to make everyone dependent on Govt hangouts.

Current odds below don't take in the real possibility of a Corbin Govt via the back door so to speak.

Majority

Cons 1/3
Hung 3/1
Lab 28/1

If the SNP, Libs and other minor parties gain just 12 seats that would be enough to remove Boris from No 10. As little as a 1-2% movement in the vote in a handful of seats would result in a hung parliament and years of instability and Brexit wrangling.
Marxist McDonnell is urging Labour voters to vote Lib Dem to prevent a Tory Govt. A poll of polls yesterday showed the Tories 11 points ahead (46 seat majority) but the ComRes poll for remain United campaigning for tactical voting claims the Tory lead has shrunk to 7% a 2 seat majority.

The reality is that Corbin does not need to gain one seat, he can rely on the SNP to make gains in Scotland, the Undems to do likewise in Southern Eng and he will be in No 10 with his Union chums swigging a pint 'o mild and a ham sarnie and make it quick luv.

We will almost certainly be facing the prospect of the GBP being devalued in a few years and McDonnell going cap in hand to the IMF who will insist on huge cuts in public spending to prevent the country from being crippled by unsustainable levels of debt.
The nonsense Corbin spouted on tv that "Socialism carried out in a democratic manner in Scandinavia raised the living standards of the poorest is.... 'tosh'
Those countries practice free mrkt economics paired with high taxes in exchange for generous Govt hand-outs. Its the wealth that makes such schemes possible not Govt benefits. Of course Corbin doesn't understand that simple fact. He demonizes the wealthy while urging envy and plans to 'bash the rich'.

Vote any other way than Tory the cost to the country will be incalculable.

Cpo prices on a roller coaster ride this morning after Nov output nos came in worse than consensus (10% forecast) drop.

Range today... $720- $731 current $726.

Morning Devon...i sure do remember the 70s...... years of constant strikes, litter piling up on street corners and been left to rot and the dead not being buried on time. Not to mention the 3 day wk and electricity been rationed to certain hours of the week.
It needed a woman to sort out the mess and by God we got one much against the wishes of party grandees. I'm praying for a Tory majority for anything else will crash stocks. Cash is king methinks in the first instance as an insurance. Overseas USD earners might be insulated from a Socialist Government but i wouldnt bet the farm on it!

The mrkt might not jump as much as people think on Boris winning perhaps 2% but sighs of relief will be more like 1000%.

Luv'em or loath'em Witherspoons will be investing £200m in their pub/hotel estate next year. Public House additions will be spread in small towns and larger ones as well as upgrades. At least Tim Martin is putting his money where his mouth is unlike Dyson scarpering off to Stinkypoor.
Good on you Tim. Hope the Marxist axis of Corbin,McDonnell
don't upset your "beer cart!"

Prices have risen sharply on the MPOB Nov output nos. Down $11 now back to near $730.

Richard Robinow is retiring from the MPE board as a non exec Director at end 2019.

Malaysian palm oil board has released Nov figures.

* stockpiles fell to a 3 month low of 2.3mt at end of Nov down 4% from Oct.

*Nov output was down by 14.4% at 1.5mt v Oct.

*exports fell 14.6% to 1.4mt.

* palm oil contract for Feb delivery slipped 0.2% to R2895.

* higher than expected inventories seen adding pressure on prices.

* Indonesia plans for B40 from 2021.

* current cpo $722.

Palm off $12 this morning
on profit taking. It could also herald the correction to 'overbought' prices. While consensus is for further rises into 2020 a fall back to $685 is very much on the cards if output nos are less than forecast.
These will be the catalyst for any further longer term moves. We'll see.

Malaysian palm oil futures rallied for the 5th straight session and a near 3 yr high on fears of a sharp fall in supplies.
The contract on the BM derivatives exchange closed 1.6% higher on Monday at R2904 ($696.40) the highest recorded since 2/2017.

A Reuters poll forecast Malaysia production would show a 10% fall in Nov but traders think 13%
Will be nearer the mark.
Official data nos will be released to the mrkts on Dec 10th, today.

A weak opening on the Street saw 60 off the Dow at the start with sector gains and losses split roughly 50:50. Volumes of 209m were well down on normal.
Trade and tariff watchers said the phase-one pre Dec 15 decision was keeping investors sidelined, as 'will he or won't he'.....carry out his threat to slap $165bn of Chinese imports with an extra 15% duty hoping to stunt Beiijing's technology ambitions. Bad news for stocks if he does.

Among stocks Boeing lost $3 ($351) back among the laggards with Apple, Goldman, Nike & 3M. A senior manager at the Boeing Renton plant said he warned the Co of production chaos at the plant where workers were being pushed to increase production and slipshod practices had been allowed to go unchallenged. He has been a constant thorn to the main board and has said he would not let his family fly Boeing. He will be interviewed in the up coming Congress enquiry.

Stocks going up, Home Depot topped the Big Board with IBM, Cisco & Exxon. The Fed policy committee meet Wed and no change on rates is expected and inflation forecast to rise to 2% in 2020 the Fed's preferred measure. Crude shed 24c ($59.06).

Mrkts are barely moving in Asia. Investors are loathe to open positions ahead of the UK General Election, the Sunday deadline on Tariff rises & a rates decision from the ECB.
Mrkts are fractionally lower, the Nikkei off 14, HK down 23 and Shanghai 6 lower. News that consumer inflation had risen to 4.5% due to soaring pork and food prices on the mainland made little impact.

The nos:- Oil $64.12.
Gold $1466. Palm $724.
Vix 15.9. $1.315. € 1.188.
BMPI 7469. FPS 7906.
FF+4. DF -10.
Morning all.

CPO flying again up $15 to $724. No move from any of the London palm stocks
its almost as if the're saying 'so what, nothing to do with us'
I'm beginning to believe it myself. Trust me if CPO heads south for any period of time you will see Palm stocks hammered mercilessly.
It's happening in crude oil stocks... we wont be exempted.