Member Info for JohnLewis79

Merry Christmas all G men, drown your sorrows for your living to fight another year. Hopefully G will repay your stoicism by putting some money in your pockets. Good luck guys and the best for 2020.

With just 2 ish trading days left in 2019 REA investors will be more than glad to see the back of it especially if you had invested back in Jan at 200+ and not caught the bottom 6 months later at c.97. Mind you few did as that 'buy one get one free' offer was available for just one day.
However a few days later you had around 10 days to buy at 105-115 a great opportunity as REA had been hugely oversold for months. I know I watched it daily eventually buying at 105 ish and again at c.135.

Most watched the stock fall from 245 to 100 lows thinking the prolonged cpo price fall, stocks piling up were here to stay and REA would be racking up more losses. To be fair who could have envisioned REA at 96, Cpo $479 and both would turn on a sixpence and head North in double quick time?
Not many for sure. Those who caught the low 100s will be happy showing c.60p gain ytd and cutting their overall loss if holding higher up.

If you had avd in 30p chunks your avc would be c.150, easy to say! Only the foolhardy or brave would have employed those tactics...
......one time when adding to a losing position paid off in spades. Last time I did that I was a bus ride away from Carey St. The Co concerned disappeared in a puff of smoke. One of Woodfords 'wonderbuster' stocks!

Dispiriting as 2019 has been sp wise, 2020 looks much much better for REA. Cpo in the high $700-$800s planting out likely to be re-started if not already underway and B30 biodiesel already in use (B40 to come) and demand globally will support prices at these levels. Hardman pencilled in a $29m loss for this year ($9m loss '20) so who knows we could be headed to break even or a much reduced loss and profits on the horizon in 2020/1. Reason enough to hold / buy at 159-165 levels.

I intend to add when monies become available in Jan. So to all holders here have a good Christmas and here's to a better year ahead for REA shareholders.

POvernight:-
DJ +96 (R)
SP +3 (R)
NS +21 (R)
R2 +2 (R)

Asia:-
TK +9 (closed)
HK -42
SH +17

The nos:- Oil $66.58.
Gold $1495. Palm $741.
Vix 12.6. $1.294. €1.167.
PI 7573. FP 8181. FF -1
DF +16.
Morning all

Today Indonesia launched biodiesel 30% the highest mandatory mix in the world in a bid to slash its fuel import bill and boost domestic consumption of palm.

Jokowi Widodo said "B30"
would allow Indonesia to cut its fossil fuel imports by $4.5bn pa. This will improve our current account defecit". Since 2018 biod sold across the country has had a B20 mix using FAME made from palm oil.
The Govt has allocated 9.6m kilolitres of FAME for the B30 mandate in 2020 up from 6.6mkl this year.
Indonesia is currently carrying out road tests with B40 mix ready for 2021.

0It is worth noting on the on-going debate on Palm oil that there are positive sides to the argument, not that the 'green' lobby are much interested. Firstly palm producers must adhere to an RSPO system of sustainability and traceability of the veg oil. Secondly palm estates provide jobs and income thus reducing poverty and inequality to communities that might not have been able to benefit themselves. Thirdly it's not the big concerns running the estates exclusively for profit as over 40% of estates are managed by local smallholders who provide for their families.

Un-beknown to many palm oil is the only plant based oil that abides by a sustainability system. Others such as corn oil, soybean and sunflower do not. So those constantly pushing for a 'green' agenda should compare like for like to other plant based oils.
Unfortunately palm oil has had to face years of distorted facts and views which claim amongst other 'horrors' that the palm estates are the biggest contributor to deforestation when in fact livestock farming is by far the biggest land encroacher in the global farming, agriculture and forestry sectors.

Of the total land area available palm estates occupy c.0.3% of the total farmland in the world whereas livestock uses 71%.
The Indonesian Govt are preparing a presentation to the UN Food and Agri organisation highlighting the positives of palm oil.
We have heard too long about the negatives of which there are some biodiversity impaction etc
but it's not all bad and that needs to be said.

TK +9 (closed)
HK -8
SH-25

The nos:- Oil $65.88.
Gold $1485. Palm $743.
Vix 12.8. $1.301. € 1.174.
PI 8132. FP 8132*. FF-8
DF +30.

* Food Producers index (32) companies of which London Palm stocks are part of has risen 11% ytd.
Morning all.

Mrkts:-
Overnight.
DJ + 78 (28455) R
SP +16 (3221) R
NS + 38 (8925 R
R2 +5 (1672) R

Far East:-
TK -48 (23817)
HK +71 (27871)
SH -12 (3005)

The nos:-
Oil $66.04. Gold $1482.
Palm $741. Vix 12.51.
$ 1.300. € 1.174. PI 7604*
FP 8132.

London palms:-
Anglo 564 +2
DKL 2.95 +0.45
EPA 0.75 -0.07
MPE 726 -6
REA 159 u/c
Cpo (r) 4.66.

Since wk 30 CPO has averaged $589 and last 24 sessions $697. Since Jan 1st 2019 CPO has increased by $156 (27%).

*The Malaysian Plantation Index since 1st Jan 2019 has gained c.4.5%
Morning all.

Trading almost ground to a halt this week as REA had just 2771 trades. The sp little moved at 150-168 while palm went from $721 to $741.
Since wk 30 CPO has risen from c.$478 to $741 for an average of $589. REA up 53, the sp somewhat on a similar cpo % increase.

Not that I correlate sp and cpo which at times seem divorced from one to another. We will see come Feb trading update whether H2 nos will help with the bottom line.

I don't know, perhaps losses will be reported for the 6th consecutive year with much to play for in 2020. The risk/reward just favours the reward but not by a lot imo as I cant see the shares much above 220 during 2020.

Whatever...the Co fortunes should be a lot better with break even for 2020, perhaps a small profit ya never know!

In a bid to boost transparency the Malaysian Govt has decided to allow Geo- RSPO to publish maps of corporate land concessions for peninsula Malaysia and Sarawak which will improve traceability.
This will be followed by the publication of all maps in Malaysia not only of RSPO members.

Specialists at WWF called the move "a game-changer" as these maps display relevant data which includes active hot spots, tree cover loss and tree cover gain. However Greenpeace said "too little too late" as the map data does not include 3rd party suppliers from which much of the output derives.
No doubt it's a move in the right direction and one that will leave Indonesia further behind in pursuit of transparency.

Overnight:-
DJ +138 (R)
SP +14 (R)
NS +59 (R)
R2 +5

Asia:-
TK -3
HK +102
SH +6

The nos:- Oil $66.60.
Gold $1483. Palm $742
Vix 12.50. $ 1.302. € 1.171
PI 7527. FP 8135. FF -4
DF +8.
Morning all.

Cpo jumped late to $741.
Forget REA they are still on jelly bean watch...as are the others to whichever road they travel have posted small losses. today. As I have intimated the CPO price means zilch.... until they do.

Goodness knows why we obsess about CPO prices?
I'm kinda thinking cpo $1000 REA 200...just joking but whatever you do, do not equate sp's with cpo prices, therein lies misery, bafflement and WTF! (Bone up on the MBJB derivative mrkt).

Don't let the bloody Barrow boys tilt you off your strategy for they can outlast the most committed long term holder. If times on your side.... hold firm for the fundamentals to reflect the numbers.

I have to say I'm not a great believer in waiting for the never never... to happen. I have lost plenty doing precisely that and certainly would never consider doing that again.

Accept you have boo'boo'd and move on, you will live to fight another day.

At recent 180 high REA value to Cpo was 29%.
See how far we have fallen current 4.6x or 22%.

Indonesia imports of dairy and eggs are worth c.$1bn
most of it coming from NZ and Australia where a new trade agreement had been signed.
The previous Trade Minister said he planned to recommend a 20%-25% tariff on EU dairy products in retaliation for the EUs anti subsidy duties on Indonesian biodiesel exports.
The EU biodiesel mrkt is worth in total c.€9bn, $400m from Indonesia.

End 2018 Malaysia inventory recorded a near 2 decade high of c.2.3mt of palm oil. Come end 2019 its expected to be at c.2.25mt.
However the Industry Regulator expects the introduction of B20 biodiesel to increase local consumption to 25% up from current 18% and will be happy to see stockpiles reduce to 1.5mt and the cpo at R3000pt.

B20 will be rolled out in stages next year and has targeted 70% of all estates to be RSPO certified. That will become mandatory from Jan 2020.

Overnight (US)
DJ -70
SP -1
NS +4 (R)
R2 +4

Far East.
TK -70 (closed)
HK -112
SH -4

The nos:- Oil $66.23.
Gold $1480. Palm $724.
Vix 12.6. $1.308. €1.175.
PI 8540. FP 8089. FF +6
DF+6.
Morning all.

New Year stock recommendations will soon be upon us. (Vodafone anyone?) I mean hardly a year goes by without Voda being picked and done sfa ytd.
Not one for moi.

My bookie quoted me 10,000 -1 agin REA would be among them. Couldn't argue with that. A deffo swerve. Probably of more interest is what price REA at 2020 year end?

My pick is tops 200....u heard it here first.

Pointless commenting on today's palm action (is there ever any?) which has been minimal even as cpo slipped $10 to $727.
Hell, who cares. You might be interested to know that Jelly Beans are trading at a daily high of 0.000265p in other words we pay you... which has attracted one buy to date for Jan futures at minimum of 2mt.

The Jelly Beam mrkt is in its infancy but hope's that Palm Oil estates will part switch from cpo to jelly beans, tons of which are nearing maturity. Palm oil can be used to ferment the beans giving them an extra sweetness useful for the West African confectionery market.

Trials are underway to assess the suitability for biofuel etc which look promising. The mrkt hasn't woken up to another arm of palm cultivation. The acreage is small atm but will in years to come (2520) match palm.
Dealers see an extra leg up in prices...your guess but $1 +/- 000.264/6 looks realistic. I'm in for 10mt (30 day delivery). Total consideration...not a lot.
Hell ya gotta start somewhere.
Evening all.

Just a few months ago benchmark futures languished at 4 month lows as investors worried about stockpiles waning demand from China, India & the EU.
That all changed at the growers conference in Bali earlier this year as analysts warned of 'haze'
hitting production just as Indonesia focuses on implementing its ambitious B30 program.

That kick started the rally from July lows of cpo $470 by more than 50% to current and a 35% annual gain to date almost it's best performance in a decade. (Soy prices are up 22% ytd).
Most industry watchers see palm oil at these levels through 2020 as a median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg survey puts palm futures at an average of R2600 v R2240 last year due to lower output, increasing biodiesel and robust food demand.

The Key drivers to palm oil prices will be.

* The Bio Boom
Weak output being trimmed back and stockpiles to shrink

* Bouyant demand.
The strong rally in prices threaten palm as a cheap veg oil reducing its appeal over others. Yet China expects to import c.7mt from Oct this year.

*Going Green
National sustainable certification will become mandatory as the regulatory regime is stepped up.

Overnight:-
DJ +31
SP +1
NS +9
R2 +8

Asia:-
TK -116 (closed)
HK -8
SH +2

The nos:-
Oil $65.78. Gold $1481.
Palm $733. $1.310. € 1.17
Vix 12. PI 7566. FP 8062.
FF-4. DF-8
Morning all.

Anyone remember 'weasel' Hammond and old 'codger' Clark? No. I thought not. Gone in the mists of Boris's bazooka-ering of the Tory remoaner lot and the Labourite horde at the battle of the Northern Somme.
Brixton boy Major absent from the ground war was seen recently pottering about the Oval in his wellies waiting to put down his towel reserving his seat for the coming cricket season. Our John likes to get in early like his German mates hoping to evade the Stukas raining down bouncers at the Surrey openers...
......and wait where was Multi millionaire failed 'remoaner' ex MP Heseltine? The cheer leader for the ' let's cancel Brexit' vote, was he holed up in his country estate praying for an Undem victory? Was he knocking on doors in Bishop 'wherever?' I effn doubt it. I know where he was. Sitting in front of a log fire hounds asleep at his heel port in hand shouting for the schoolgirl on TV.

How did that work out at your old alma mater? I doubt he ever rose above 'fag' status at that minor public school he attended. So stay in your pile in the Cotswolds and prune your Rose's or play with your helicopters. We have had our fill of your pro EU nonsense. Goodbye and good riddance & goodish luck as if you bloody needed it.

A new dawn rises, the horizon is bright and welcoming. A new 'get go'
Parliament sits ready for the challenges facing the UK in a post Brexit world.

I could not be happier! Hip Hip Hooray!! Go Boris.