Member Info for JohnLewis79

The 'Santa Rally' seems to have by-passed London mrkts this year as with only one day to go the mrkt is trying hard to cheer up (+45). In my limited experience palms don't do SR's and if the wider mrkt is stuck in neutral palms wont be in 6th overdrive bombing down the M4.

There is no clear explanation for the SR. Usually mrkt sentiment, Wall feeling bullish, investing monies for the New Year or any number of other factors drives share prices during this 7 day period. Its said the pro's are out the pis piling in.
Whatever since records began going back to the 50's shareholders have seen gains 66% of the time, so a good bet.

Personally I think it's more likely the 'January' effect which spans the Nov-Jan best months for US S&P 500 stocks with rises in Jan of 42 and decliners of 28. Also I think pis like to be in the mrkt at the start of any year.
Last year saw a 9% gain for S&P stocks in Jan and the last losing Jan for the S&P was 2016.
In Jan 2019 the All Share rose 4% and the ftse 100 gained 3.6%.

BBC2 at 9.00 tonight a journey through Borneo the worlds 3rd largest island. From coral reefs to jungle and all that swarm, sprouts through the Island inc wildlife and palm plantations the enemy of evolving life. Expect a bad rap.

The Indonesian Govt has criticised a CNN Iinternational special report titled "Borneo Burning" that the worlds demand for palm has ignited a climate time bomb.
The Deputy Foreign Minister claimed the report was not constructive and provided a false narrative intended to undermine the competitiveness of palm.

On the issue of deforestation it is absurd to claim there is a global climate time bomb linked to burning forests in Borneo when fires are raging as far apart as California the Amazon & Australia none of which are attributable to palm oil.
Of course fires in Indonesia are a contributing factor to CO2 emissions and the need to manage deforestation which the Govt are dealing with as a matter of urgency will top the Govts agenda every year.

It should be noted that the production of palm oil helps to conserve the global land bank to meet growing demand as other veg oils require many times the acreage to meet consumption.

Following Indias recent duty cut on RPO Feb futures on the BMDE rose R14 to R3066 in expectation of increasing imports. (The average through 2019 was R2560).
The technicals see resistance at R3156.

Dec exports in Malaysia fell less than forecast at c.5.5% while Dalian's most active soyoil contract fell 0.7%. Palm prices are affected by movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global veg oil mrkts.

The CBT (Chicago Board of Trade) will reopen later today.

US mrkts closed.

TK closed
HK +323
SH +37
SK closed

The nos:- Oil $66.20. Gold $1523. Palm $810. Vix 13.8 $ 1.321.€ 1.179.
PI 7761. FP 8160. FF+13.
DF+44.
Morning all.

Cadbury descendant decries 'irresponsible' use of palm oil in chocolate manufacture.
Bruce Cadbury the great-grandson of the founder said " Cadbury must end its use of palm oil which is destroying the planet and bringing the animal kingdom to the edge of extinction"
Cadbury is now owned by Mondelez one of the biggest buyers of palm oil.

A Mondelez spokesman said its palm oil is responsibly and sustainably sourced as well as being fully traceable. He added other alternative sources require five times more land to produce the equivalent of palm.

Cpo flying up continuing the gains seen since July lows of $477.
Closed at $811.6 (+$12).

...Guys heres to a better 2020 for one and all.

2019 year end % nos and bracketed 2018 % closes.

MSCI(W) +24% (-12%)

Ftse +12% (-12%)
All +14% (-13%)
250 +26% (-17%)
SC +15% (-13%)
Aim +12% (-18%)
TM100 + c.38%

DJI +22% (-6%)
S&P +29% (-6%)
NS +35% (-4%)
R2 +24% (-12%)

TK +18% (-12%)
HK +8% (-14%)
SH +22% (-24%)
SK +8% (-17%)

Oil +22% (-18%)
Gold +19% (-12%)
Silver +13% (-11%)
Palm +37%

£$ +4%
£€ +6%
Happy new year all.

Thus ends a dispiriting 2019 part rescued by cpo recovering in H2 rescuing the palm oil price but not palm share prices. DKL led the way among the gainers, EPA the laggards.

Anglo up 2.5%
DKL up 10%
EPA down 55%
MPE up 5%
REA down 32%

Cpo up 37%
Cpko (Nov) down 1
Cpo(r) 4.63x

IDR / USD down 4.6%

As ever prices are best I could find but pretty much on the money.

And to you comeonvog.

current $808
Day Range $805-$817.
Q4 $629av.

Q4
REA 157-166
H 180
L155

Indias import of refined palm oil (RPO) fell to half in Oct-Nov '19 thanks to the Govt policy aimed to support the domestic industry by hiking duties by 5% to 50% on RPO sourced from Malaysia for a 6 month period.

Imports tumbled to 2.64 lakht in Sept, 1.19lakht in Oct & 1.22lakht in Nov.
Overall imports fell 33% in Oct on a monthly basis.
Of Malaysias total PO output, India accounts for c.25% (Jan-Nov '19) a total of 4.3mt (2.2mt) by far the largest single buyer.

Adverse weather conditions in Mal and Indo and B30 biodiesel are expected to impact on 2020 output nos keeping prices on an upward trend.

Overnight.
DJ -183
SP -19
NS -61
R2 -5

Asia
TK -181 (23657)
HK -130
SH -9

The nos:-
Oil $66.63. Gold $1526.
Palm $809. Cpko $757.
Vix 14.8. $ 1.311. € 1.171.
PI 7791. FP 8185. FF-27.
DF+28.
Morning all.

Purely as a matter of interest cpo closed at $814... REA off 3.5 just moving the spread a touch....ignore and cpo(r) at 4.89 slipping again.
In share price terms it's a non event as most 'palmers' focus on jelly bean futures which have rocketed up of late. CPO price noted just in any case anyone believes sp's track the crude.

We must assume that plantation companies know what to do with this 'manna' from heaven before they write down/ write off all sorts of nasties on the balance sheet. Trust me they will.

Investors going into 2020
whether they know it or not will soon realise that the one way 'Ticket to Ride' soon becomes a 'Magical Mystery' tour into balance sheet obsfucations or worse...like "HELP"....help me I need somebody not just anybody...... heh heh heh!

Investors need to look at the macro picture in 2020 hoping that China's productivity doesn't fall, the US consumer keeps spending and Trumpy keeps off the scrumpy-tweetery long enuff to keep the Democrats at bay.

Tomorrow is a half day so sp's are unlikely to move much which will close a very poor year for REA and other Palmers. Next year should underpin current prices but I no more expect REA adding 50 than Palace in the Prem top 4. Not gonna happen, not this year. So confident am I of being right about this that I'm almost certainly bound to be wrong.

Purely as a matter of interest cpo closed at $814... REA off 3.5 just moving the spread a touch....ignore and cpo(r) at 4.89 slipping again.
In share price terms it's a non event as most 'palmers' focus on jelly bean futures which have rocketed up of late. CPO price noted just in any case anyone believes sp's track the crude.

We must assume that plantation companies know what to do with this 'manna' from heaven before they write down/ write off all sorts of nasties on the balance sheet. Trust me they will.

Investors going into 2020
whether they know it or not will soon realise that the one way 'Ticket to Ride' soon becomes a 'Magical Mystery' tour into balance sheet obsfucations or worse...like "HELP"....help me I need somebody not just anybody...... heh heh heh!

Investors need to look at the macro picture in 2020 hoping that China's productivity doesn't fall, the US consumer keeps spending and Trumpy keeps off the scrumpy-tweetery long enuff to keep the Democrats at bay.

Tomorrow is a half day so sp's are unlikely to move much which will close a very poor year for REA and other Palmers. Next year should underpin current prices but I no more expect REA adding 50 than Palace in the Prem top 4. Not gonna happen, not this year.

bargains dealt and sp's as follows:-
Anglo (30) sp-6
Dkl (17) sp -0.10
Epa (8) sp u/c
Mpe (8) sp -4
Rea (1) sp u/c
Definitely too much Turkey and share prices over stuffed and hung over. Santa Rally bypassing most London equities this year with much that dogged shares throughout 2019 still in focus.
I think 2020 is going to quiet what with the Nov US election and trade squabbles hardly settled.
China of course will cont to be the driver of global trade concerns, little 'ol UK now very dependent on the Govt delivering on GE promises of cutting taxes, deregulation and getting a deal from the EU asap.

....decade of share prices going nowhere....mostly.

Sp
(2010-2019)
Anglo 572 -580
Mpe 305 -750
Rea 414 -170

Sp
(2016 -2019)
Dkl 10.70 -3.60
Epa 2.5 -0.76

Of the 3 bigger stocks MPE is the star of the show gaining 445 since 2010. Anglo up 8 and REA down 244.

Cpo over the decade has risen $457 to current $810.10

Indonesia and Malaya will enter 2020 with rapidly declining inventories. In Malaysia they fell below 3mt in March to c.2.3mt in Nov (data from the MPOB). Indonesia stood at 3.8mt in Aug down from 4.6mt a year earlier.
Domestic consumption in Indonesia climbed to 1.5mt v 1.1mt in '18 driven by B20 blend biodiesel. On the supply side growth in 2020 will be limited affected by this years very dry weather and less fertiliser being used due to low cpo prices in H1.
Indonesia is forecast to produce c.46mt in 2020 up 1mt from this year.

Indonesias capacity for the B30 blend mandate will be fully utilised all year as PME can be used all year-round as the country has no winter months.

With the EU imposing 8-18% tariffs on palm Indonesia will be shut out of much of Europe. Other regions & increased domestic use will inevitably take up the slack if the EU commit to phase out palm entirely by 2030.
It must be said that the entire palm oil debate could have dramatically changed during that period.

Asia.
TK -155 (closed)
HK +124
SH +31

The nos:-
Oil $67.03. Gold $1518.
Palm $804. Cpko $756.
Vix 13.4 $1.312. €1.171.
PI 8256. FP 8256. FF-10
DF -4.
Good morning all.

Here's some historic REA share prices:-

Open
Sp.
1988 151
1998 265
2008 512
2018 315

Decade
Sp.
2010 414
2019 170 (est).

Historic.
H 800
L 96

CPO.
Decade
2010 $353
2019 $803 (est)

CPO
Historic.
H $1293 (2011)
L $234 (2001)