Member Info for JohnLewis79

Two late reported trades from Friday 3rd.
28652 at 170
10500 at 170
Boosted wk1 volume to
57894 traded only 1 sell advice of 500 shares.

RNS is out guys..

The Malaysian Palm Oil industry is bullish on this years outlook amidst flat output, depleting stocks and growing demand into 2020/1.
The countrys output has been revised down to 19.3mt for 2019 which augurs well for better prices going forward. The golden crop is expected to have a 'stellar' year according to the (CPOPC) and Research Houses echoed the optimism and noted the worst was over for the industry assuming cpo prices remain in the RM2600-RM2700 for 2020.
At those spreads palm oil will be well supported by demand from China and India. With China importing much less soybean, palm imports are expected to increase by c.1mt to 7mt in 2020 and for India to c.10.4mt.

A bout of profit taking has taken c.$20 off the ytd high ($823) nevertheless 2020 should be a much better year all round for oil plantation estates.

Far East mrkts:-
TK -452
HK -234
SH +2
MSCI(W) -3

The nos:- Oil $70.17
Gold $1579. Palm $806.
Vix 14. $1.307. € 1.171.
PI 7730. FF-45. DF -124.
Morning all.

As the war of words continue on the Trump twitterati Dow futures have turned positive (+5).
The strike in Baghdad has come conveniently for Trumpy at the time of his impeachment woes.

As is his way he apparently did not inform Congress until after the fact and forgot to inform or consult his British and European allies who may well have warned against attacks on high ranking personnel as escalating tensions needlessly. Well that didnt stop Obama from killing Bin Laden did it? Any action against US enemies goes down very well in Trumpy's redneck heartlands.

The US military are 4 square behind Trump given the $ millions poured into the services. Direct costs to the US for Iraq war, reconstruction & occupation was est a few years ago at $819bn and if you add in indirect costs of the entire global war ($15bn in annual disability payments!) its c.$6 trillion (last reported nos).

No doubt those nos have risen over the last few years. It's a mighty costly business waging foreign wars. The war machine eats up c.30% of the entire US annual budget of which in 2019 the US Dept of Defence approved a budget of $686bn inc $69bn for waging war.

The US is the only country on earth who can undertake such massive
commitments so it's best not to upset Uncle Sam!
Iran may not want any direct confrontation preferring to use guerilla tactics to tweak his tail or aiming missiles at Israel and using secret militias in other regions targeting US and British personnel.

Best not attack any British else we'll send a gunboat to sort you out!

Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Friday after the US air strike in Baghdad but recorded a 3rd straight wk of gains due to falling output and B30 diverted to the domestic economy. The benchmark Palm Oil contract for March delivery on the BMDE closed at 3117 ringgit ($760) off 13r but 1.4% higher on the week.

Prices tended lower on profit taking and ME fears as Brent futures jumped
$3 on possible oil supply disruption through the Straits of Hormuz.
Malaysian cpo production for 2019/20 was forecast at 20.6mt down 200,000mt from previous estimates in last Q report.

Tariff cuts by India stemmed the output decline. Cpo prices have soared 44% in Q4 2019.

the previous post it was intended elsewhere and has no bearing here.

Here I am an avid deleter
of every unsolicitated advert/message promising me untold riches, imploring me to subscribe to a Tahiti hideaway, (dusky maidens supplied) as part of the package (yum yum) so i should sign on the.....line now!
Well bloody hell send me the contract and I'm double in. You know they never do, it's just a 'come on' to get your e-mail number and password wich im risking in telling you is....F***K off.

Of course I never signed up to that deal given given the intrusive info they wanted. For instance, like do you remember your password, your email, your first ***nk..... Cheeky buggers! Which tbh i can remember to this very day occured in a cold toilet in Kampala when I was a randy young experimenralist seeking relief! (heh heh heh). You might ask what the helI was doing in Uganda? That, I'm afraid is a story for another time.

For sure you must decide whether this is all bull **** and I'm story telling. Well, let me tell you its pukka, this info was of a private nature which remained with me until now and I thought might add a bit of 'gravy' in the telling. Strange how first feelings never go away...ahem!

As I live in a 'dodgy' part of Saaaarf London, on Dulwich borders, I like to tell everyone....... well a 2 stop bus ride from the College to be exact, I can almost believe this is an upcoming Eton & Windsor borough.

Good point Hydro..I had not thought of that but shrouded in other machinations of skullduggery .....ya just never know. Whose watching the watchers?

Will the taking out of one of Irans top dogs develop into a full scale ME war? Unlikely imo as Iran knows only too well that the US war machine could turn Tehran into a Wallmart car park with no shoppers. In terms of military firepower it would be like a flyweight getting into the ring with Mike Tyson.

Iran has threatened 'severe' retaliation but options are limited outside of closing sea routes the occasional drone strike aimed at S.Arabia, "Death to America" chants as sanctions have depleted their resources and Iraq is split between the Sunnis and Shias so little help there outside of stirring up trouble.

Iran may target US citizens or attempt another hostage crisis a la 1979 when 50 odd US diplomats were held hostage for over a year. However US citizens have been advised to leave Iran immediately and the US Embassy has been closed.
Trouble is Trumps in/out foreign policies inspire no confidence that the 'man has a plan.' He is a shoot first talk later hombre.

Whatever the US will expect the Mullahs to attempt to bloody Trumps
nose. Iran has developed sympathetic cells, militias world wide ready for moments like this to attack US interests in other parts of the World.
Russia and China have yet to show their hands but any nuclear option is most certainly out. However
when you have two hot heads in opposition anything is possible so lets hope it becomes no more than a 'tit for tat' spat at worst.

As to his election chances in 2020 US voters are loathe to change Presidents in times of war and the Democrats are more US centric than foreign politic despite Bidens experience as VP and serving on the Foreign Relations Committee. I think Trumpy gets in for another go as long as the economy holds up and he can stay a repeat of the gunfight at the OK Coral.

US stocks fell 234 yesterday on ME tensions but Dow futures are calm and oil at $68.61. Talk of $150 oil, well we have heard all this before. I suppose it's just possible the bulls could call it right once in a while? Payments for G might not be affected but it's another worry you didn't need.

Trust you don't mind a few thoughts on the above.
Have a good wk/end all.

....world index is a mrkt of 1655 mrkt cap weighted stocks from 23 countries worldwide but excludes emerging and frontier exchanges....wot no Mogadishu exchange?*
The WSCI World index has been in existence since the late 1960s and there are many variations of the index. It is maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International and intends to represent a broad cross section of global mrkts.
China was only recently admitted (5/2018). The last available figures for 2018 showed a 8% decline (div reinvested).

* Emerging and Frontier have separate exchanges but will have limited appeal to the average Joe.

MSCI(W) +2 (567)

Vix +0.62 (14.02)

Ftse +80 (7562)
All +40 (4236)
250 +105 (21988)
Aim +6 (964)

DJ +97 (28635)*
SP +4 (3235)
NS +48 (9021)
R2 -7 (1661)
* +85 Santa Rally.

TK 23657 (closed)
HK +261 (28451)
SH +34 (3084)
SK -2 (2176)

Oil +$2.59 ($68.61)
Gold +$31 ($1555)
Palm +$14 ($813)
Cpko ($755)
Cpo(r) 4.872x
PI +77 (7810)
FP +23 (8183)

$1.308
£1.171
IDR +103 (13925).

Anglo -12 (570)*
Dkl +0.10 (3.75)
Epa -0.04 (0.66)
Mpe -5 (711)*
Rea +3 (170)

* best guess.
Morning all.

No Santa Rally this year part holed by the never ending ME tensions. The ftse added just 48 damp squibs closing at 7622.

Heres a couple of shockers for you. Since 1992 the ftse has added 4761 points or 166% over 27 years. Contrast that with the Dow which has risen 25,344 points or 766% over same time frame.

Take 1999 (20 years ago today) or the Millennium the ftse has risen just 10%! Can you believe that? Surely Shirley thats not right. It bloody is. Contrast that with the Dow which has risen 173%. Can you believe that? It's also true.

Comparing us with the dynamic US economy might not be very fair but boy does it show how far behind de'm damn Yankees we have slipped.

Cpo fell $14 today to $813
more or less Fridays mid range, giving cpo a wk 1 av of $818, a good start to 2020 even if palm stocks look the other way.

For instance, when cpo hit $620 REA was 180 since fallen to 170 while cpo has risen 31% to $813. Sp's def follow the palm price don't they?

Anglo & Mpe prices once again meaningless who knows whether up, down or u/c, whether the open was the close or the close the open. I've given up bothering too confusing for me. Epa took an (c.6%) tumble to 0.66, Dkl & Rea remained u/c at close.

There seems little consistency in the sector which probably explains the lack of pis interest that's if any are looking.
When their basic commodity price rises 70% off lows and some palms are flat to lower where's the sense in holding?
To be fair REA has outpaced cpo % wise as by end Oct the sp hit 70% up while cpo rose just 21%. REA has lagged cpo rise somewhat since by 0% to 40% and therein lies the frustration. One can only hope Y/E nos will be bountiful.

Not exclusive to this sector by any means I'm sure others are out of favour or ignored. No wonder many pis return to S&P 500 trackers which perform well and take the hassle out of never ending fretting about sp's and why they do not follow the basic rules, profits up, eps up, revenues up, roce up shares UP!
Evening all.

Perhaps today traders are banking profits as cpo current $818 the days range $803-$823. Blow a bit of froth off never a bad thing.

Shareholder pressure in the wake of the Australian inferno will ramp up on London miners to further reduce their exposure to coal an increasingly unpopular fossil fuel.

It worked at Rio Tinto one of Australia's biggest miners who have now exited all its global coal interests. Glencore and BHP are under increasing activist pressure.
Believe it or not the C of E which manages £13bn of assets has been a long time critic of fossil fuel companies. It said the global economy must transition away from coal as soon as........as does Norways $1trillion Govt pension fund which has stringent rules for companies in which it invests limits investing in coal.

Yet Australias PM has defended the coal mining industry and said he was not prepared to walk away from coal by writing off thousands of jobs. Australian coal production
is worth c.£53bn and provides work for 50,000 and c.120,000 indirectly. Most coal is exported to power hungry countries like China & Japan which helped fuel the coal industry boom in the 2000s.
More than $5bn is paid in royalties to the Govt and a further 6 mines are being planned. The PM said Australia would maintain the course of responsible management, addressing the changes of climate change to ensure we can grow our economy in what is a very tough climate.

You may have missed that REA was assessed by the Zoological Soc of London in 2019 scoring 76% and ranked 8th out of 99 participating companies.

REA was rated on a number of factors including the following:-
* transparency disclosures
* environment issues
* social best practice
* regulatory
* maps
* water & chemical management.

In 2018 REA were ranked 19th of 70 and in 2017 16th of 50. It was not disclosed which companies bettered REA.

REA Q1 (2019)

Open 244
Close 201
Loss 43
Loss 18%

Overnight.
DJ +330 (28869) R
SP +27 (3258) R
NS +120 (9092) R
R2 -2 (1667)

Far East.
TK closed
HK -82
SH -6
SK -2

The nos:- Oil $ 68.35.
Gold $1541. Palm $819.
Vix 12.5. $ 1.313. € 1.175.
PI 7838. FP 8170.
MSC1 565. FF-26. DF-190.

The Santa Rally up 34 dtd looks like petering out with the Dow called c.200 lower at open on escalating M.E tensions. The ftse will open c.30 down as wk1 closes at c.level par.

Ftse
Q1'19
+551
+8%

Dow
Q1'19
+2603
+11%

Palm
Q1
$512
-$73
Morning all.

Cpo another solid day of gains closing up $28 to $827. I cannot remember when cpo last had a down day.

Palm stocks little bothered as is the norm and I was unable to verify closing prices which bore no resemblance to opening nos. For instance Anglo opened at 596 closed at 582 up 15, go figure. MPE similar nonsense.
At least REA held a 3 gain to 170 but as per slipped v the cpo rise again. DKL gained 0.10 and EPA u/c.

I think we will forget the Santa Rally and hope that Jan performs to past averages. For any sp appreciation were going to have to wait for the trading update as the rising cpo price does little but tbf were not going down either along with other unloved palm stocks.

It's highly unlikely you will see any palm sector stocks get tipped for 2020.
No analyst in his right mind would dare to recommend the hated palm oil, contributor to global warming and wrecker of biodiversity. He would be drummed out of town or sent to the post room to file reports for the rest of his life. The green lobby are targeting companies like Unilever who use palm in many of their products hoping to pressure them into switching to other veg oils however impractical that is.
Fossil fuel oilers are battling the same eco warriors but luckily do not have a biodiversity problem or the need to grow palm which employs millions of people throughout SE Asia.