Member Info for JohnLewis79

Out. Update 16th Jan.

Ytd sp has started well, certainly better than 2019
but of course still nowhere near Jan 2019 sp of 240.
Ytd the cpo price continues its rise from July'19 and the Jan'19 price of c.$585. REA has pretty much doubled from the 96 low so has outpaced palm (+73%) since then.
Not sure what to expect when REA update the mrkt on 2019 nos but if the mixed response to MPE and DKL nos are anything to go by it's likely to be muted at best. Cant see a profit being reported unless there has been a massive cut back in capex etc...but H2'19 should indicate where H1'20 is headed.
That will be the outlook of most interest to pis along with debt reduction plans as some of the $ notes fall due this year or is it next?

India has ceased all buying of RPO from Malaysia after Govt warned importers to boycott Mal palm oil.
Indonesia has taken up the slack charging importers a $10 ($810) premium over Malaysias price.
India imported c.4.4mt from Mal whether Indonesia can fulfill lost tonnes is not certain but its estimated Indias imports could drop to 1mt in 2020.

Overnight:-

MSCI(w) 573 (+3).

DJ +83 (28907)
SP +23 (4288) R
NS +95 (9274) R
R2 +12 (1670) =R
US removes China from the list of currency manipulators, in return China will grant US companies greater access to their financial mrkts. Trump has halved duties on $120bn of imports and will not impose tariffs on a further $156bn. The Dow crossed the 29000 line earlier in the session awaiting upcoming Q4 nos.

Far East:-
TK +163 (closed).
HK -20
SH -1
SK +10
Mixed but sentiment improving on latest Sino /US trade moves and easing of duties.

The nos:- Oil $64.28.
Gold $1539. Palm $827.
Vix 12.3. $1.299. € 1.166.
IDR 13660. PI 7616 (-61). FP 8162 (-57). FF +5. DF -1.
Morning all.

Waste of time updating trades as they drag up trades from 1947 etc,...a total waste of time for all who are bothered and trust me I'm the only one.... it's all part of the 'mushroom effect' aimed at you and me (if you dont know, dont ask).
When did trades ever move the sp outside of a nano minute, so why bother?
I certainly won't anymore and it's close to the next step of not bothering with the sp for what does it tell us? Zero imo, a number of trades kinda like Cadburys chocs, dark or light take your choice or Bournville or the next choc on the bloc or a bartering system, perhaps negotiated deals cutting out the middle men, i have heard of others and prices offered come with a health warning.

The system is broken and has been for years just us the bookies have crucified the 'over round' to 10-20% in their favour which has decimated place pot returns (in stock mrkt terms that's buyers pay more, sellers get less) you knew that of course. Of course you did.

I know I used to price my selling price of a share 20% less than I bought which took care of the spread, the banana skin, broker downgrades, shorters, sods law, a kind of mental insurance preparing me for the worst. I was rarely disappointed.

Have to say I'm an awful cynic (deservedly so mostly) so as ever take what I say with a large pinch of salt. If not, it may save you a whole world of pain if you dont set your sights too high and prepare for the long term, that's at least 2- 5 years

With F/Y numbers due shortly just a reminder of the main nos from 2018.

* Total assets 1091p
* Total liables 634p
* Net asset val 457p
* Revenues 184p
* Av price pt. 82p
* Cost of sales 174p**
* Net debt 331p
* Safety 61%

** Estate operating costs
c.101p.

Far East mrkts wk 3.

MSCI(w) 570

TK +111 (23851) closed.
HK +236
SH +6
SK +16
Mrkts steady ahead of Wed signing in Washington of phase-one deal whereby China has agreed to buy $40-$50 billion of agri products an amount being treated with considerable scepticism. US exports to China slumped to $13bn due to retaliatory duties on soybean and pork.

The nos:- Oil $64.84.
Gold $1557. Palm $835. Vix 12.6. $1.304. €1.171. PI 7686 (-7).
FP 8159. FF+5. DF +58.
Morning all.

I think that's a very prudent stance to take boyo. I became too emotionally involved with G despite having little time for the sea farer of Cowes leading the team. My regret was believing that common sense would send the stock back up to intrinsic value levels. I don't believe that juju nonsense anymore.
A stock like G can turn anyone into a hardened cynic I'm afraid. and tbh the stock has been a serial disappointer for far too long. I feel for H. How long before he throws in the towel?
How much lost opportunity value has he missed glued to G year in year out?
I suspect its considerable. Of course I believed my blood thing was going to pay off in spades and overstayed my welcome. So I understand only too well H's dilemma, the fear of missing out when G has a Lazarus share price revival.
Awaiting that happy event may prove even too testing for H's patience.

"Jan" 2019 closed returning 9% to investors one of the S&P500 better months and since 1950 Jan has an av (+1%) total return.
However the month of 'Jan' on the London All Share has been the worst month for investors since 2000 returning an average (-1.6%). However the 16 years from '84-'99 saw the Jan return av (+3.3%).

It's a tad early to be doing the nos but at the half way stage on the S&P500 and the All Share this is the 'January effect' position.

S&P 500 up 34 (+1.05%)
All up 11 (+0.26%)

Other ytd numbers as follows.
Ftse +46 (+0.6%)
UK 250 -316

DJ +286 (+1.0%)
NS +206
R2 -10.

TK +194 (+0.8%)
HK +448
SH +41
SK +28

REA +13 (+8%)
Cpo +37 (+5%)
Morning all.
Go Eagles!!

Average price ytd $820.

Crude up for the umpteenth time while 3/5 palm stocks closed down which is the current direction of travel for reasons which may be stock specific rather than palm specific.Most of us know one does not align sp's with cpo prices unless they are going down. They are mostly divorced from rises in one sector translating regardless of pis wish lists to the bottom line of Company balance sheets.It's just another learning curve pis need to get a 'handle' on. Jobbers are not here to make you money, not here to guide you through the ABC of stock mrkt investing or console you when things turn sour, those learning curves one learns through bitter experience.Anyways REA put on 9 over wk 2, on 32,900 bargains, cpo added $25 to $838 making a $360 gain since the low of late July, much of this one imagines going straight to the bottom line. Mpe which reported production nos c.21% up was u/c on the week. Others saw little movement either way.

Boyo, all. I'm gonna try and wrangle in that 'dojo' thingy in my palm stock!

Overnight:-
DJ +212 (28957) R
SP +22 (3375) R
NS +74 (9203) R
R2 +1 (1665)
Easing ME tensions and 'phase-one' deal to be signed next week.

Far East:-
TK +96
HK +2
SH -9
SK +11

MSC1(w) 567

The nos:- Oil $ 65.14.
Gold $1547. Palm $834
Vix 12.5. $1.307. € 1.177.
IDR 13755. PI 7662.
FP 8257. FF+30. DF+71.
Morning all.

Mpe managed to struggle into plus figs by close a pretty good performance post results these days on the LSE.
As ever whatever nos are posted by reporting companys there are always prior considerations to be considered, holders often coming a distant second, if at all.

Among palms EPA took the limelight today with a 27% gain and 171 posts! Gordon Bennet thats more than the top o...lie achieved in many a month!
Where did all these posters come from? Hell, EPA is hardly your average pis fave daily puntathon is it?
DKL moved up a touch to 3.85, Anglo and REA remained unchanged as Cpo gained c.$5 to $829 after $835. Those of a nervous disposition would be advised to bank profits at these palm prices and await developments. The rise from $478 just 6 months ago looks like euphoria gone mad and no guarantee that palm sp's will live up to one's expectations....REA a case in point.

Not that I would wholeheartedly recommend it but it might be best to "bottom drawer"
your certs and come back in 6 months. Watching sp's on a daily basis is like watching Palace missing the rare sinch goal opportunity week in week out or as Charles Dickens said in Our Mutual Friend (1865)...

" Shares O mighty Shares!
Relieve us of our money, scatter it for us, buy us and sell us, ruin us, only we beseech ye take rank among the powers of the earth and fatten on us!"
Poor old Charles must have been in REA and done his money!

... reinvested their divs? Or was it bolly down the local? I'm on a free session in my local this morning thanx to a mate who is still invested here and reasonably happy he tells me but he was one of those sub 100 merchants!

Hell 'dragonfly doji' I learn somepin new every day from boyo. I thought that might have been some martial art attack position, heh heh heh!

...interesting to see what the mrkt makes of the bare nos. At the halfway stage production costs had risen by $35 to c.$380 pt, so while the 20%s increase is welcome we await how that impacts the bottom line. At the H/Y Mpe posted a $0.6m pt loss but maintained the 5p div.

Mpe announce crop and production nos for 2019.

Total ffb crop 1.001mt up 21%
Production:-
Cpo 232,000 up 20%
Cpko 53,000 up 22%

Indias restrictions on imports of refined palm oil (RPO) might lead to a price war between the two biggest suppliers after India amended advices to buyers from 'free' to 'restricted'
Currently India imports c.30% from Malaysia mostly (RPO) and the balance (CPO) from Indonesia. As the product is the same Indian buyers are hardly going to anger the Govt by continuing to source from Malaysia.
India is likely to shift to soybean and sunflower oil alternatives to fill the gap.

Overnight.
MSCI (w) 567

DJ +161
SP +16
NS +61 (R)
R2 +5

Far East
TK +550
HK +343
SH +22
SK +25

The nos:- Oil $65.76.
Gold $1556. Palm $831.
Vix 13. $1.312. € 1.180.
IDR 13855. PI 7683.
FP 8216. FF+30. DF +106.
Morning all.