Member Info for JohnLewis79

Cpko prices rose 28% in (2018/19) to $945 after falling 43% (2017/18).

Despite c.2% falls in the Far East and oil well down the ftse is called up 6 points or so. Nikkei futures are 50 up for tomorrow's opening.

Cpo bouncing +/- $5 around $800 level this morning and the plantation stock index in Malaysia is off 33 but 8% up ytd.

Morning H I read you have boughtTullow, not sure why as the board have downplayed hopes of a swift turnaround this year.
F/Y output projected at 75,000bopd that's a 10k downgrade. Remember those fanciful 100kbopd back in 2018?
They say their TEN fields output will be flat through 2022, East Africa awaiting export pipeline to the coast and its Uganda/Kenya joint venture stalled triggering a $1.3bn asset write off. Debt will be little changed at $2.8bn
Drilling in Guyana is on hold this year while Surinam and Peru remain prospects at best. Perhaps the sp at c.50 reflects all this and the only way is up. I hope so for your sake.
Just one thing. As G is your main investment which you have been committed to for years...why go elsewhere in the oil sector?
Anyways wish you well. Remember cut losses asap!

Morning H I read you have boughtTullow, not sure why as the board have downplayed hopes of a swift turnaround this year.
F/Y output projected at 75,000bopd that's a 10k downgrade. Remember those fanciful 100kbopd back in 2018?
They say their TEN fields output will be flat through 2022, East Africa awaiting export pipeline to the coast and its Uganda/Kenya joint venture stalled triggering a $1.3bn asset write off. Debt will be little changed at $2.8bn
Drilling in Guyana is on hold this year while Surinam and Peru remain prospects at best. Perhaps the sp at c.50 reflects all this and the only way is up. I hope so for your sake.
Just one thing. As G is your main investment which you have been committed to for years...why go elsewhere in the oil sector?
Anyways wish you well. Remember cut losses asap!

Overnight US stocks closed mixed mrkts concentrating on good Q4 nos from IBM, Tesla hitting new highs up $22 to $570 selling on 92x earnings and now the 2nd most valuable car maker in the world.
Boeing down $16 to a 52wk low of $307 and Netflix Q4 nos up over 300% (8.76m new streamers) shares fell $12 to $326. Oil lost c.2% to $55.74 on inventory build up. December house sales the strongest in two years backed up consumer confidence numbers.
DJ -10 (29186)
SP +1 (3322)
NS +13 (9384)
R2 -1 (1685)

Wuhan the epicenter of the Coronavirus has been quarantined, cut off from the rest of China as trains, planes, autos the underground and cinemas are closed. People are not allowed to leave the city in an effort to suppress and contain the spread of infection. So far no panic in Wuhan and no "global emergency" has been issued.
Markets across Asia are falling as the virus spreads to other regions. Over last 3 sessions TK is down 400, HK c.1000 and SH c.84 but little sign of investor panic.
TK -206
HK -470
SH -46
SK -21

The nos:- Oil $62.16.
Gold $1558. Palm $803.
Vix 12.9. $1.312. $1.184.
PI 7464. FP 8307. FF -6
DF-76.
Morning all.

Cpo crawled off todays low of $778 to current $804 but few have any faith in the sustainability of prices in the short term. As ever it's just a **** (snapshot in time) so tomorrow likely $20 lower....? As ever when your relying on mrkt prices best to be cautious.

Dealers profit by price swings as do companies selling into the mrkts this year. The 52wk range is $493-$840 but who knows whether companies have benefited anywhere near that % increase?
I very much doubt it as how much drops to the bottom line given all the other constraints? Good for some not others. I think a lot less than the bare figures indicate for REA given the balance sheet priorities.

Perhaps $50 at best through Q1 2020? No wonder the sp is mired in the..... u know what!
As practically every other company has issued 2019 updates etc... REA pride themselves on being amongst the laggards a near 3 months since year end. No worries as nobody is expecting anything other than losses with the usual ' in line with expectations' for 2020 whose much bothered?

This is an exciting share to be invested in. Have no doubt if watching paint dry is your 'thaaang' your in the right place. I'm waiting for mine to dry.

One point you need to consider is that REA being family controlled are hardly in need of 'pesky' pis moaning about the Company performance.

The REA board never ever promise anything so cannot be accused of 'over promising' and under/over delivering. I remember a time when your average 250 company had hundreds of pis, in fact were encouraged by brokers etc.., to invest and attend the Agm to voice your view.
Those times are long gone big bang and costs did the damage, methinks.
About the only exception today would be some oil/expo companies. The main reason pis are useful today is to keep the sp ticking over, provide income for brokers /jobbers, outside of that were pretty ineffectual and mostly ignored. Fair enough I guess noone said investing was going to be a love-in.

Mind you W.B disproves that but he's a one in a million CEO. Nowdays most CEOs are faceless wonders wrapped up in MIFID unable to say anything of interest ( 'trading in line with...') for example. Any comment outside the most bland statement will have had to be checked by the shysters and HR people.
If you can live with that and let's face it you have to it's either the track or the mrkt where you can try and make some money..... unless you risk instruments of mass destruction! The hurdles to making money are of Beechers Brook proportions but we cant stop trying can we?

Despite a poll of industry participants predicting prices will surge c.18% in 2020 palm prices continue to be extremely volatile in the opening wks of the year ranging from $775 to $840.
Indonesia is est to increase output by 0.6% to 45.75mt in 2020 up from 45.5mt in '19. Much depends on the success of B30 rollout (est to be 8.7mt of production) across the country where it will compete with other fuels.
Analysts are forecasting prices to average RM2650
(RM 2248) this year.

Overnight the Dow slipped 152 on the spreading virus
now crossing into other countries. Closer to home Max Jet worries of being grounded till the summer knocked $11 off Boeing's sp. Tariffs on European autos cont...
DJ -152 (29196)
SP -9 (3321)
NS -18 (9371)
R2 -14 (1686)

Asia bounced off Tuesadays big falls re the Corona virus yet worries cont that the disease may spread as the China Lunar year starts on Sat and unless the disease is contained could spell trouble for businesses especially tourism.
TK +167
HK +340
SH +8
SK +25
The nos :- Oil $64.31.
Gold $1552. Palm $784.
Vix 12.80. $1.30. €1.178.
PI 7481. FP 8311. FF +22
DF +137.
Morning all.

The trade dispute between Mal and India is largely being blamed for the slump in palm oil prices.

Last week saw the largest
fall in cpo for night on 11 years as more than 30,000 tonnes of the oil were stranded off various Indian ports waiting for landing certificates. A bounce yesterday to $807 was short lived as prices slumped once more to c.$790 currently.

US mrkts closed for Martin Luther King day.

Stocks in Asia are slumping after the BOJ kept rates at negative 0.1% for short term and 10yr Govt Bonds at at c.zero %.
Last year the Govt approved a $120bn stimulus programme and expects the economy to grow by c.0.8% to March 2020. Stocks slumped on the news.
TK -219
HK -726
SH -35
SK -23

MSCI 579.

The nos:- Oil $64.55.
Gold $1566. Palm $789.
Vix 12. $ 1.301. €1.172.
PI 7503. FP 8278. FF-30.
DF -112.
Morning all.

Far Eastern mrkts have not followed the record busting advances on Wall St, Friday.
Mostly up to flat Chinas 6% growth nos well trailed
and the phase-one deal is history now. China left it's one year prime rate u/c at 4.15%. Better nos coming out of tech companies in Taiwan and S.Korea buoyed sentiment across the region. Mitsubishi Electric suffered a massive cyber attack and may have lost Govt and Company data the Co reported today. Shares down 17p in GBP.

MSCI 579

TK +42
HK -190
SH +16
SK +15

The nos:- Oil $65.60.
Gold $1562. Palm $789.
Vix 12.10. $1.300. $1.171.
PI 7488. FF +11. DF+2.
Morning all.

REA adj/EVA planted Ha is c.$8.8m (36,700) ha. This values the planted acreage at c.£250m or c.580pps. These were figs back at the H/Y stage.
A lot has happened since.
For instance they estimated 'achieved' prices for cpo as follows:-
2019 $460
2020 $505
2021 $505
Obviously those nos are redundant now with cpo averaging above $800 ytd.
Output is forecast to fall by c.7% '19 but partly made up by cpo H2 price increases (Production likely back over 1mt in 2020).
Hardman forecast yield mt/ha of 24, oil extraction rate 23 and cpo 236mt for 2019. Forecasts for '20 & '21 are insufficient now unless cpo falls back to the low $500s.
Next wk will be interesting can cpo bounce back to the $800 level having been hammered $50 from ytd high just a week ago or cont the slide to low $700s?

A slide to $740 av wk 4 would lower the ytd cpo av to c.$795.

Big Bang Bong...oops Big Ben Bong(s) I shudda said. It used to be Church bells ringing to call people to church, sometimes a warning peal, so why not a 'ringing' for ridding us from the dreadful shambles of the last few years? A celebration call to the people to salute a great occasion?

The mood has changed. The remainers have mostly forgotten old divisions the leavers likewise. Hell, who now even remembers Brexit?We are now back in charge of our own destiny forever consigning Brussels to meddle in their own backyard. Good riddance.

If now is not the time to have Big Ben chiming 12 times at midnight whenever is it? Should not revellers descend on Parliament Square bringing their own bells and a raise a glass or two in direct opposition to Parliament who vetoed the idea on cost concerns yet happily agreed to cost overruns now at £66m from £30m for Big Ben's restoration.

I shall open a nice Mouton Cadet reserved for the occasion and toast Boris for getting us out of the clutches of the EU and ensuring our independence forevermore.

A reminder to pis re: REA share capital (last noted)

£85,000,000 9.% cum pref £1 each
£12,500,000 in 50,000,000
Ord 25p each.

Issued
£72,000,000 in 72,000,000 9% cum pref shares.
£10,987,632 in 43,950,529
Ords.

Loan Capital
$27,035,218 nominal 7.5%
$ notes 2022.

That's a lot to be satisfied.
Cum prefs cancelled for now but hoping to be restored soon. Current price £92.50.

Global mrkts ended wk 3 with gains all round continuing the good start to 2020.
Ytd nos given below.
FT +133 (+1.76%)
AS +62 (+1.50%)
250 +3 (n/c)

DJ +810 (+2.84%)
SP +99 (+3%)
NS +416 (+4.6%)

TK +384 (+1.6%)
HK +866 (+3%)
SH +25 (+0.8%)

Oil -2%
Gold +3.5%
Palm -1.6%

$ -2%
€ -0.8%

Anglo -22 (-4%)
Dkl -0.25 (-0.7%)
Epa -0.5 (-0.6%)
Mpe +6 (+0.8%)
Rea +13 (+8%)
Morning all. Go Eagles!

Bloody lse mucking about with the posting system. I've had a right moan at them. Let's see if we can get them to go back to the last one which worked perfectly well!

Cpo fell c.$11.00 at close for a $51 fall on the week
an unexpected reversal for palm bulls. No doubt some froth blown off over enthusiastic traders and some overdue profit taking did most of the damage.
Whether fundamentals will reassert themselves next week we will wait and see.

However at wk 3 cpo averages $816 to date not far off $300 more than this time last year and who could have forecast that back in July 2019?
Palm stocks reacted calmly to the cpo falls rarely straying from opening prices. REA had no trades for 2/5 sessions and finished u/c on the week (tot vol 14,083)/ (9 trades). Of course I would like to see much higher vols and bargains but it's what it is.
Stoking up interest is usually the CEOs job or if not certainly the Co broker should be spreading the word and not a lone BB poster. I doubt the shareholder register has 100 pis on it as most of the stock is in family hands and the Pru (c.77%). So the free float could be as little as a couple of mill. The Co register will hold your shares in name of nominee broker as opposed to name and address form of yesteryear.

Pis indifference could be down to a host of factors of which climate change / deforestation is surely the main ingredient and that is unlikely to change anytime soon, RSPO certified or not.

True H but twas much the same here back when until you came along and stole my thunder!
As you know I've always felt it best to have a stake in a stock I post on, well if on a daily basis and atm funds, what little I have are earmarked for REA. As it is I really dont think I can add anything enlightening to a board with so many good posters.
I'm fighting a losing battle on my REA but one never knows
when or if pis will jump aboard.
It took awhile for G to get going and look at it now thankfully free of the booooooooom merchants and in out day traders.
I'm more than happy to read others postings until I back a few winners to get back in here.

Good to hear I shall be paying more attention to Brent in future. There maybe a crude/cpo connection I have missed. I see crude is up and cpo is off the days floor so who knows?
Tbh I think the connection is loose as estates are hugely dependent on cpo being commercially viable given the economics of the businesses
which differ hugely to the black stuff production. Good to see G reacting positively to the recent update. That's a first!