Member Info for JohnLewis79

A couple of sells amounting to about 2/- if you remember those pre decimal days when everything went to ****,
attracts no pis interest.

To be fair even at 120 I doubt few pis would put their hand in their pockets to buy in here given that cpo prices mean zilch in sp terms and not much else until we are advised otherwise and then its back to the Quo...."down down deeper and down"....
Heh heh heh!

Back at Crockfords, Mpe fell 12 or maybe not, best ask the croupier, if hes not checking RDSB on his mob..... Other palms were in dgaf mood for the day and cpo fell a Boeing just above days low of $745 and may have set a new trading range of $700-$755.
Not sure it means anything but if your not a day/swing/top slicer you will be sidelined from the movements in prices, which no doubt will help you not to jump on the latest meaningless bandwagon of brouhaha only to be disappointed when the bid is a hell of a lot lower. Sellers are crucified in these mrkts.

China looks ever more in lockdown as the WHO refuse to categorise the virus as a world emergency. While uncertainties exist mrkts will head South. I'm out in the short term as I believe the fundamentals mean zilch in the current climate of rumour, rabid headlines, jobbers rigged prices and negative sentiment all of which conspire against the lowly pis.
Nikkei futures look sick so imo palm is headed sub $700 in quickstep time and until REA go sub 140 I'm in no rush to invest/buy back. I shall be observing a period of masterly inactivity, staying away from the cacophony of bull crap headlines predicting the end of the world, HS2 failing, Huawei milking my posts and palm oil getting the thumbs up from Greenpeace. Evening all.

Cpo price at 8.00am $745
that's $92 off ytd high.

Excepting notifications of Director's interests, placings and issue of prefs the last time we heard anything of substance re company performance was back in late Sept, the H/Y stage.

Just a reminder the av sell price achieved (Jan-June'19) was cpo $430 ($549) / cpko $590 ($977).
Cpo averaged c.$563 (Jul-Dec'18) which will be comfortably beaten in H2'19.

Fed Chair said the US economy is growing at a moderate rate with inflation remaining subdued. They expect the coronavirus to disrupt activity in China and are closely monitoring the spread now at over 7700 infected and 170 deaths.
Mrkts had a nothing day 2 up & 2 down with Tesla the top riser on earnings beat rose $14 to $581.
DJ +12
SP -3
NS +5
R2 -9
As the Dow nears 30,000 it has risen 10,000 or c.50% since Trumps inauguration
which surprisingly puts him last on the 36 month Presidential term leader board (47%) to runaway leader Roosevelt at 182%.
What worries investors is can the Dow at this high level support an economy growing at less than 3% and Co earnings declining on margin pressures?

Mrkts in Asia are completely 'virus' driven. Taiwan slumped near 6%
dragging down TK, HK and SK. The virus has now spread throughout China and severe shortages of medical supplies are reported in Hubei province. Yey the % of those infected going on to die is c.2%, when SARS hit it was c.10%. In HK panic buying has broken out, schools are closed and the city looks more like a 'ghost' town every day.
TK -439
HK -544
SH closed
SK -40

The nos:- Oil $58.23.
Gold $1579. Palm $750.
Vix 16. $1.302. €1.182.
PI 7187. FP 8290. FF -48.
DF-150.
Morning all.

US mrkts enjoyed a better day on back of continuing strong retail sales and consumer confidence. Helping sentiment was the WHO refusing to say there is a global emergency despite the death toll now at 132. Apple topped the big board with a $9 jump to $318 and crude added 72c to $54.20.
DJ +187
SP +33
NS +130
R2 + 14.

Mixed messages out of Asia this morning with SH still closed and will not reopen till Monday. HK is down 660 first day back from the holiday and the Govt has declared an emergency in the city as mainland coronavirus hits 6000 infections. The Year of the Rat has not started well. TK & SK both trade ahead as do most Pan Pacifics.
TK +145
HK - 660
SH closed
SK +16

The nos:- Oil $60.31.
Gold $1565. Palm $770.
Vix 16. $1.302. € 1.182.
PI 7223. FP 8295. FF+21.
DF +100.
Morning all.

Malaysian plantation stocks had a bad day falling 235 (3%). Ytd is a bit worse off 544 points to 7189 or 7% mirroring cpo falls this year.

Suckers rally cpo c.$746. Not to be trusted while the virus dominates mrkt trading.

Cpo may have bottomed out at $725 as the price has turned rapidly upwards to current $770.
It may well have been oversold and traders cutting shorts, whatever it's a relief that $700 may have been a step too far and prices became divorced from the fundamentals of supply & demand.

However the virus has not yet been contained so I wouldn't bet the farm on a sustained recovery to ytd highs just yet.

US stock mrkts caught the bug yesterday the Dow tumbling 454 had been over 540 down at session low. Stocks with China exposure were slammed, Apple fell $9 (3%) as those infected reached 3000 and the death toll to 106.
DJ -454
SP -52
NS -176
R2 -18.

Stocks in Asia have fared as poorly. HK & SH are closed, TK off 127 and SK lost 3% on reopening after their NY. The virus is the ultimate uncertainty for mrkts the disease now spread to 12 countries.
As China accounts for c.6% of all SP500 revenues investors fear company profits will be damaged unless the authorities can stem the spread and death toll from rising.

The nos:- Oil $59.33.
Gold $1578. Palm $748.
Vix 18.2. $ 1.304. € 1.184.
PI 7244. FP 8223. FF+28
DF+166.
Morning all.

While mrkts obsess over the coronavirus, the Dow off 500 at one time, atm off 365... sounds a lot but in % terms is tiny followed Far Eastern mrkts lower. London could not escape global falls and fell 174 at close led by oils, miners & airlines.

It may be that China has the disease under control and so far no global health emergency has been announced.
Of course these 'Black Swan' events are just what the traders ordered, nothing like a little panic to pick up some cheap stocks.
While most pis will watch from the sidelines hoping the 81 deaths are the limit and no secondary outbreak occurs in the next few weeks or all bets are off!
Palm stocks were quiet except Anglo which may have fallen 26 and Dkl off 0.05 with palm closing at $747 down $34 on the session. Ytd cpo has lost $53 or c.7% and no sign of bottoming out. Brent was down c.2% at $59.02 (-$7 ytd) with sterling little changed at $1.305 likewise the €1.185.

Ftse futures look better tomorrow called 23 to the good but the Nikkei down 155 or so.

The continued sell off in palm futures has taken c.$100 off ytd high of $840 during last 2 weeks, that's c.12%. Cpo is following the Brent oil price of sub $60.
To date palm oil sps have been little affected much as they were in the rise from sub $500 oil.
Whether supply/demand factors reassert themselves to overcome coronavirus concerns in the short term looks unlikely.
No doubt at sometime the virus will die out as did SARS and we can all get back to counting jelly beans and watching daytime telly.

Dekel Chairman Lincoln Moore has been on Proactive investors in vision forum (YouTube) discussing the companies performance and outlook for this year.
Whatever you think about CEOs appearing on TV I'm in favour, nothing wrong in promoting the Co at every opportunity, kinda like what a good CEO does.

Other CEOs may have done it before but in REAs case as Rhett Butler famously said " frankly my dears I don't give a damn"......

Demand might well outstrip supply this year on tight supply concerns, however that hasn't stopped cpo prices tumbling $90 from ytd high of $840.
The coronavirus is having an unexpected negative impact on traders psyche though too early to tell how badly prices will be hit given the speed they can recover on any good news of the virus being contained.
The last SARS emergency (750+ deaths) knocked c.1% off Chinas Gdp and 0.5% in the region. To date the WHO has not given coronavirus (80 fatalities) 'emergency' status.
As ever there's always something around the corner to upset the apple cart hence I suggest you factor, at least in your mind, REA at140 if the virus gets completely out of hand or sell now if your truly worried. I'm holding long as I believe the virus will die out before reaching SARS proportions. I'm not panicking yet.

The economic impact of the spreading coronavirus disease is hitting Asian mrkts this morning particularly stocks in airlines, hotels & travel companies.
Tokyo closed off 2% (-476) Shanghai is down 3%, SK fell 21. Only HK posting blue nos (+41) at close.

The nos:- Oil $59.30.
Gold $1580. Palm $758.
Vix 14.6. $1.306. €1.184.
PI 7425. FF -100. DF -300.
Morning all.

Top Ten global Palm Oil Producers (mt).
1) Indo 43
2) Mal 21
3) Thai 3
4) Col 1.7
5) Nig 1.0
6) Guat 0.85
7= Png 0.63
7= Equa 0.63
9) Hond 0.55
10) Braz 0.54

The top importing countries:-
1) India 18%
2) China 11%
Asia totals c.54%
3) EU 25%
4) Africa 14%
5) Others 7%
It is said that in 1591 a consignment of goods from W.Africa landed in London containing 32 barrels of palm oil. Since those far off days the oil is now grown throughout SE Asia and used in hundreds of products on super mrkt shelves spread as below.

*71% food products.
*24% consumer goods.
*5% energy.

Some 4-5m people in Malaysia earn a living from palm oil and in Indonesia some 25m people are indirectly dependent on palm for their livelihoods.
The oil plays a huge roll in reducing poverty, producing tax revenues and those calling for the banning of palm have no idea as to the disastrous effects it would have. Switching to other veg oils would require much more land clearance as the yield per ha is much lower than palm which on average yields 4-10x as much oil per ha.
Priority no one is to stop deforestation / fires and beef up the regulatory, auditory process as to where the oil is harvested and reduce emissions impacting climate concerns and the destruction of biodiversity.
It can be achieved. Palm oil is here to stay. It must be grown more responsibly and Govts need to do a lot more to ensure it satisfies RSPO edicts.

Wks1-4 close and ytd nos for major mrkts.
Ftse +44 (+0.6%)
All +17 (+0.4%)
250 +119 (+0.5%)
Aim +8 (+0.8%)
***
DJ +451 (+1.6%)
SP +64 (+2%)
NS +342 (+3.8%)
R2 -6 (-0.3%)
***
TK +170 (+0.72%)
HK -240 (-0.8%)
SH -73 (-2.4%)
SK +68 (+3%)
***
Palm (-2.2%)
Oil (-8%)
Gold (+3%)
***
MSCI +8 (+1.4%)
***
Morning all.

Think I'll have to come back and challenge bunks superiority, give him some opposition, put some stick about....just kidding! Six consecutive winners yikes that is suspicious! Oil off from $64.59 to $60.55 on the wk and G rose a couple of pence, who wudda thunk that outside of Mayor Bunks? This week will see the end of his reign my 'ju ju' men have spoken, 195 has been cursed!
Have a good wk/end all.

Despite a $6 fall on the week cpo ytd averages $811($560). The direction of travel looks downwards perhaps to $750 though that's a gut feeling as any rise to $800 gets sold into
and chat about future prices/output are not convincing imo, too many unknowns.

No way am I forecasting cpo prices that's a red or black option! REA was static on the week at 179 with just 38,000 traded which inc a late sell trade of 25,000 at 175 so basically zero interest which is par for the course recently.
Other palms sps were mixed with very little movement either way and the food produce sector fell 15 to 8345 but 185 up ytd (+2%) while the Malaysian PIantation (Ytd Index) fell 308 (-4%).

Palm stocks Ytd.
Anglo -22*
Dkl -0.65
Epa -0.10
Mpe -28*
Rea +13
* With a pinch of salt obviously....

Cpo trading in a narrow $5
range today. However i expect ytd price to be comfortably above $800 wks1-4 (5wks in Jan).

For the same period last year cpo averaged c.$560 so a considerable boost for palm oil estates finances at start of 2020.

US stocks traded water for most of the session with no new factors to drive prices higher. Tit for tat tariffs over digital and autos are going to be implemented. The ECB kept rates on hold.
DJ -22 (29160)
SP +4 (3326)
NS +19(9402)
R2 +1 (1685)

In the Far East Wuhan remains in lockdown as does 8 nearby cities, some 25 million people are now inconvenienced by the coronavirus. The toll is 25 deaths and over 800 infected. Only TK & HK are open for business both trading slightly up.
TK +35
HK +41
SH closed
SK closed
The nos:- Oil $62.23.
Gold $1560. Palm $791.
Vix 13.0. $ 1.31. € 1.187.
PI 7425. FP 8259. FF +52.
DF +36.
Morning all.