Member Info for JohnLewis79

Deaths up, infections up stocks up....funny old world. This morning shares in Asia are ahead to steady after intervention by the PB of China and retail investors bottom fishing after Mondays 7% slump. While the % rate of infections is slowing the daily death toll is increasing, 64 on Monday and severe restrictions on households are in operation, only 1 person per household allowed out every 2 days to buy essentials as Contagion is some way off being under control. Many cities are adopting this method in an effort to stop the spread.

Infections are now nearing 25,000 and reported deaths 425. HK reported its first 'virus' death and borders are still closed with China. Pan Pacific mrkts are ahead taking the lead from SH.
TK +117 (closed)
HK +234
SH +30
SK +41
Overnight in NY stocks gained on better crude pulling up from years low to settle at $50.47 and a surprise rise in Jan manufacturing output pleased the bulls. Among stocks Tesla burst through $750 to close at $780 but Google parent Alphabet disappointed falling c.$60 after hours.
DJ +144
SP +23
NS +122
R2 + 18.
The nos:- Oil $54.91.
Gold $1576. Palm $735.
Vix 18. $ 1.302. € 1.177.
PI 7142. FP 8236. FF +37.
DF +204.
Morning all.

C'mon guys I know your out there...give me some smooth......, a blip of recognition to make me feel my witterings are worthwhile before you cast me into the dustbin of scrap paper......just kiddin'.....
Back from a nice lunch I'm surfing the box in the corner between Bullseye, Homes under...Traffic cops, Supermarket Sweep and Abandoned Housewives, blimey us old'uns are spoilt for choice. Isn't daytime TV exciting for us old coffin dodgers?

That aside cpo closed at $728. Now over $100 off ytd high, not much of a surprise as Brent has fallen to $55 along with other commodities and the virus is the only 'up deal' in town. Dont spout fundamentals, nav, roce or any other gibberish...tell me about the virus ....is it up or down, what are Wu flu futures doing?

Talking of which early indications point to some recovery in infected patients with some 475
having shaken off the flu like virus despite deaths now exceeding the SARS death toll in China last time around.
Hong Kong has officially closed its border with China hoping they have caught the spread in time.
In a suffocating city like HK with a pop of 7m+ it would be disastrous if the Wu flu took hold.

Hardly the forum to discuss the unwanted and unwarranted g/e mail *******s I'm plagued with every day.
Today I have deleted 52 of these bloody nonsenses and it's only 2.00 pm,
which if I bothered my arse would take me to Kingdom Come to read.

Why do they do it? Are they paid 0.00012p per 100,000,000,000 gazillion nonsenses? I guess so.
Someone, somewhere needs to get a life.....oops it's those bloody machines again that ping us with the latest bum tip from Motley Fool the most discredited of AIM touters since Moses and the Ark or the modern day equivalent Harvard Securities the only river they ever crossed was a river of pis blood and Carey St

Most of you will never have heard of HS who ramped the weird and wonderful dogs on the otc (over the counter scam mrkt) and were a regular advertisement on the London Evening Standard. Anyone remember Motion Media which blue sky mining fools bought into in their droves? I'd be amazed if any of their duff tips exist today.

I digress, I have had an illiquid lunch and feel the need to rant at these incessant intrusions into my privacy.....that's a bloody laugh! I look at it this way, reading my random thoughts is better than watching a static sp mired in the Indonesian peat bogs.
Afternoon all.

overdone seems to be the consensus view on panicky stock mrkts. Some semblance of normality has returned as futures on the Asian mrkts all point North for tomorrow's opening.
London called 50 better and Mr Jones 180 to the good.

As reported in an earlier post the SHCOMP ytd is down 10% not 27% since first reports of a flu like symptom had been observed in late Dec but not officially acknowledged as coronavirus.

UK to become more welcoming to Indonesian students post Brexit said Tim Owen UK Ambassador to Indonesia.
We want more students to come to our Universities where 4 out of the top 10 in the world are situated.
There will be future cooperation on palm oil as the UK Govt realises the importance of the oil to the Indonesian economy and recognises the efforts achieved for sustainable oil.
Since Brexit the UK will not be constrained to make trade deals and there will be no dramatic change in legal issues for living and visiting the UK as we were never part of the Schengen arrangements. Trade agreements for Timber will remain but the UK will continue to abide by the EU ruling on palm biodiesel for the moment.

India has raised import duty on cpo to 44% from 37.5% in an effort to boost local oil seed.
India relies on imports for 70% of its edible oil consumption up from 44% 20 years ago. Palm oil accounts for c.66% of Indias edible oil imports of 15mt annually.
The notification of the tax hike has confused traders as on Dec 31st India reduced the tax to 37.5% on imports under the ASEAN concessional agreement.

Stocks on Shanghai exchanges have fallen sharply in first dealings the SHCOMP off 260 points (c.9%) & (10% ytd) that's a $370bn plunge in value. The Govt (PB of China) have cut short term rates and are ready to pump in $170bn to provide liquidity.
Stocks across sectors have fallen but healthcare shares are soaring. The crash many predicted has not happened and mrkts are orderly yet it's often the aftershock that indicates how serious the economy has been effected. Chinese financial regulators say the impact on the economy will be short lived.

It's not only shares that are suffering, oil, metals (Copper -12%) and veg oils have been caught in the cross fire as the death toll reaches 360 (all in China except 1 in the Phillipines) and 17,000+ infections. Its reported that Doctors in Thailand have successfully treated two cases of the virus by a ****tail of drugs.

There's a lag in reporting deaths as the Govt do not have enough doctors to update the latest numbers and many at the bottom of the pyramid are going undetected as the medics are overwhelmed and pandemic fears are rising as many Chinese do not trust Doctors so the nos are hardly accurate.

The Nikkei at open was down 333, the Hang Seng 170 and the KOSPI 36.
All three have recovered some of the early losses near mid session. The Dow is poised to rise 185 and London a modest 23.

Latest mrkt nos
MSCI(W) 559 (-6)
TK -232
HK +62
SH -234
SK u/c

The nos:- Oil$ 56.15.
Gold$ 1585. Palm $743.
Vix 19. $1.316.€ 1.188.
PI 7044. FF +23. DF+185.
Morning all.

Scientists say the risk is small. The two known UK cases both from China are in medical lockdown but may have infected others here while the disease was incubating.
Public Health England has been seeking 1,600 people who flew into the UK from Wuhan region before controls were imposed. But nearly 500 cannot be traced.
It is a highly infectious disease and people may spread it before they know they are ill. Each person who becomes ill infects 2 or 3 others so an outbreak could get out of control.

*The virus is spread in body fluids. Droplets from coughs and sneezes, carried in the air, on hands or in used tissues are significant causes of infection.
* Ways to minimise the risk inc hand washing, binning all tissues, avoid spending time in enclosed spaces such as cars, trains and workplaces that's most likely impossible for most.
* Face masks are of limited benefit.
* The good news is the mortality rate of coronavirus is 2% much lower than SARS (10%) & Mers (20%-30%).
* The bad news is the Wuhan virus attacks the lungs causing pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome in a few people. It may cause permanent lung damage.
* There is no vaccine.
* Self isolation, avoid work, school, public transport if your diagnosed.

Wuhan a city of 12m has become a ghost town resembling those Wild West mining towns of the 1880s with tumbleweed blowing down dusty roads. Noone is venturing out except to join queues at Hospitals waiting to be tested. Noone is spending. Wuhan is home to state- owned car makers, Honda, Peugeot & GM all have large assembly plants there these are closed atm.
The virus has blown global mrkts off their even keels threatening asset prices, share prices and trade. Risk on is Risk off! Gold and Bonds have become oasis's of safe havens.

China accounts for c.16% of the global GDP it is the manufacturing colossus for i phone manufacture, cars, other electronics and clothing, it's the import giant of the world. Take Britain our exports to China were worth c.£22bn our 6th biggest sales mrkt which could be impacted and coming at the exact moment of our leaving the EU with no trade agreements. The timing could not be worse.

Many think this is the 'Black Swan' event which will lead to a sharp, long overdue correction as valuations became out of kilter to earnings. The last serious SARS outbreak knocked 14% off the China MSCI index. While a month of disruption is one thing, 6 or more months will hammer consumer spending and global trade.
Diageo one of the worlds biggest drinks companies has closed all factories in China and as for the luxury end of the mrkt, forget it that's gone as Chinese shoppers account for 90% of the growth. Burberry's heavilly exposed to China has seen its stock price fall c.18% in a month.

Hope's that mrkts have over reacted to the crisis and will blow over in weeks much as the crisis of a US/Iran war evaporated in next to no time as other events such as Ebola did may be wide of the mark. Who knows whether this epidemic will become another long forgotten footnote to history.
As of today Shanghai intends to reopen for business tomorrow. It has some catching up to do as since closing for the NY the Hang Seng and Nikkei have fallen 6% & 3% respectively.
However SH is by far the worst performer among Asian mrkts tumbling 27% ytd and could turn up at any moment if the virus looks like being contained and the death toll stops increasing. We live in interesting times.

Oil World has said that declining output and rising demand should push palm oil prices higher in the coming months out- weighing fears about the China virus.
Global oil production is expected to decline by 1mt in 2020 for the second annual supply deficit. Thomas Mielke head of a Hamburg based
Oil World said, " prices falling on Bursa Malaysia and all over the place were not linked to fundamentals but to emotions and nearby uncertainty but the fundamentals will prevail. In fact they are more bullish for 2021 because we are carrying unusually small stocks at end of season."

Oil World conservatively est the average palm price over H/I 2020 will be $800 a tonne up from $770 as of last Thursday. However if Indonesia were to fully implement a programme requiring 30% biodiesel content in fuel notably using palm oil as feedstock that could push prices up by $150 a tonne he said.

Also veg oil mrkts were being supported by declining supplies of rapeseed following poor harvests in EU & Australia
whereas soybean is expected to be less well supported than other oil seeds because of a bumper Brazilian harvest and high US production.
Uncertain Chinese demand dented by swine fever epidemic which has reduced the need for soy protein in pig feed will see prices come off.

Whether any of this pans out is questionable while the virus continues to spread globally so prices will be buffeted by fear, greed and uncertainty making decisions difficult for palm estates planning for the years ahead.

.................. 02-02-2020 ...............

Morning hydro, not sure what you mean by 3× oil short in 3SBR
but it sounds impressive as did the gains! A very good call from $66.50....wish I had the nerve.
Talk of $40 oil is scarry, let's hope it's just the talking books!

The death toll across China exceeds 300 and an estimated 15000 infections double that of the 2003 SARS outbreak have been reported.
There is talk that the true infection figure in Wuhan alone could be as high as 75000 and in Indonesia 40000 workers at a vast Chinese complex are in quarantine. The Hubei province accounts for c.60% of the coronavirus outbreak.
The epidemic is isolating China from the rest of the world. Travel bans and tourism has all but ceased (10,000 flights) into China have been cancelled as China extends the New Year in an effort to stop people travelling. Streets are deserted shops and restaurants closed, nobody cares venture out.

Embassy staff are being evacuated, Apple and other big US outlets are temporarily closing their stores and trade has been severely hit.
In Hong Kong thousands of hospital staff are on strike insisting the border with China be closed and in the US (4) States and 8 cases have been confirmed as around another 20 countries have reported infections. There are too many unknowns about the virus and its transmission path so countries are closing their borders and not accepting flights from China. The US are funneling flights from China into only 3 airports.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange might remain closed and it's a certainty that markets will open considerably lower in Tokyo and Hong Kong on Monday.

Well done boyo...good call, you had some outside help from my ju ju men!
Unlike hydro I dont want to see sub $50 crude as this would knock cpo prices and our 'break even' point is 60% or around double yours at current prices.

Wales 1/33 to turnover the sacrificial fodder of Italy and I fancy France to beat Eng at c.2-1 if your lucky.

Investors dumped stocks at any price as virus infected bourses took fright at the rising death toll now 259 and global spread of infections over 12,000. Its no longer a "little local difficulty" as the virus has now exceeded the total infections during SARS of 8100 but thankfully not the death toll of 774. The SARS epidemic took 8 months to run its course.

The 'January' effect has caught a bad dose of the flu, mrkts shivered, the Dow tanked 603 on Friday and 1092 points (4%) since Martin Luther King's holiday 9 days ago.
That fall takes the DJI 810 points down on the year or (3%). Mrkts worry that China is not doing enough and the US & Australia have imposed travel bans and bars re-entry to foreigners who have recently visited China. If the death toll keeps on increasing mrkts will get hammered probably another 5-10% as noone can see the floor support level.
Dow futures call a small gain at open but much can happen before Monday.

Friday close
DJ -603 (28256)
SP -58 (3226)
NS -148 (9151)
R2 - 34 (1614)
Morning all.

Cpo prices traded in a narrow range (740-748) all day closing at $748. Cpo averages $806 ytd, wk5 ($752).
No trading in REA to speak of just 7000 bargains dealt shares fell 8 on the wk. Other London palms did nothing but tread water.

No surprise investors need to see the virus contained which is spreading and another 100 cases have been confirmed in 19 other countries. On the week the ftse closed off 4% the All down 4% and the 250 3%.

No better in the US where the Dow wholly virus driven is off 392 at midday (had been 500 lower) which skids the Dow through its 50DMA.

Coronavirus is an infection that 98% of people survive. The way mrkts react anyone would think if caught you'd almost certainly die and the world ending. Not so.
Mrkts of course care little for human life much more the toll it will take on global trade and business.

It's been estimated that unless China gets a hold on the virus their GDP could fall as much as 2% in Q4 and that would certainly impact Western economies.
Dow futures are calling a 150+ fall at open which would take it into minus territory for the week. The Hang Seng had a shocker slumping 4745 (17% on the wk), TK off c.3% & SK down c.6% and Taipeh lost 5%. Nikkei futures see another 200+ fall on Mon openning.

There is little doubt that the China virus has precipitated the falls in cpo prices. This will lead to lower demand and hit exports.
The spread of the virus has led to a lockdown of cities and curfews on travel which directly impact usage of veg oils in the food industry.
At the same time crude oil prices are falling which impacts cpo through the biodiesel route and speculative capital is being withdrawn. The big question is...has the bull run in prices come to a premature end?
Consensus says yes in the short to mid term. Everything depends on China overcoming the spread of the virus.

The WHO has declared a global public emergency this is not in condemnation of China more as a warning to other countries, who may be ill prepared to deal with coronavirus.
China has virtually quarantined the whole country severely impacting the economy. Many World airlines are suspending all flights to China. To date deaths are said to be 213 with 8000+ infections.
China surprised Asian mrkts by reporting better than expected PMI nos pointing to expansion though these were pre virus outbreak.
TK +244
HK -57
SH closed
SK -15

Earlier US stocks rallied late on as Amazon and IBM posted excellent Q nos and hopes that China has reduced & contained infections. Crude rose to $53.21.
DJ + 125
SP +10
NS +24
R2 -1

The nos:- Oil $58.22.
Gold $1572. Palm $744.
Vix 15. $1.31. €1.189.
PI 7187. FP 8242. FF+39.
DF-13.
Morning all.