Member Info for JohnLewis79

On the subject of cpo prices seems pointless to me for the price to average say $600 a year and REA only get $450 net of export levy, duty, paying the cleaners and goodness knows what else.
Not much of a business if REA cannot make money at $764 which looks highly likely in H1. As ever the addicted debt habit of the Co hamstrings any advance for holders and will do so for years to come making cpo price almost an irrelevance. Could REA turn a coin at $900? Probably but by then I'd be dead, buried and forgotten.

I wake up with the 'sweats' at night thinking whatever possessed me? I do hope others can see a silver lining somewhere in the update that enables you a restful nights sleep.
Or as my Dad used to say "sell down to the sleeping level son."

Thought I'd have a quick look at Anglo the only palm of the big 3 with an occasional pulse. First off at H1 2019 borrowings and liables are minimal at $16m and net cash of $84m so no drag on profits which like all palmers were decimated by the low cpo prices through the period. They did turn a coin, $330,000 of them.

Preliminary announcement of F/Y results are some way off due around late April.
F/Y 2018 saw PBT $31m, net $18m and nav per share of c.930p. The p/bk value is 0.65 so in the undervalued profitable Co category.

Given the H2 (2019) recovery in cpo Anglo will certainly return a profit to shareholders which incidentally they have done every year since 2014 (av $25m).

Current bid prices:
Anglo 606
Dkl 2.80
Epa 0.55
Mpe 680
Rea 162
Morning all.

Well done bunks you have the magic touch. My ju ju men will be out again to smoke your 178!

The update was about as good or bad as you might have thought depending on what side of the fence you were on. I thought about as bad but hell I sure didnt expect to find any gold dust or hidden gems in the very bland statement giving little encouragement to investors. Even H1 is looking poor what with extra tariffs, swops on acreage, debts, rocky achieved palm prices, delays and it never rained on Wednesdays well you get the picture........ So a 6th year of successive losses with a dim outlook into 2020 where profits look as illusory as ever. REA fell 5 on the wk on 2500 traded. Anyways enuff of my moaning. I resisted the urge to sell out my last lot
first thing thinking things can only get worse or should that have been better?....I dont know anymore.

Only Anglo stock showed any life adding 56 over the wk on broker inspired small lot buying today. Other 'Palmers' unmoved.
Cpo added a $ ($752) today and ytd averages ($764) the Mal Plantation index is off c.6% since Dec oil is down 17% so far this year & Gold that safe haven is up 3% ytd. IDR up 20r.
London All Share closed at
4151 up 94 on wk the Dow was heading South (-176) but will likely close 2% up year to date, while SH has fallen 101since reopening and down 6% ytd (HK-3%, TK +1%). The MSCI(W) Index is 2% better this year good to end on a positive note.
Have a good wk end all...go Wales and the Eagles...

Dont you guys complain about this terrible site? Invariably have to wait a minute or more to log in here then have to press open/close all chat which when it works sends you to chat from last week and then impossible to find your way back to the latest posts.
Why the ***k lse mess about with the site when the previous simple to use one worked so well is effn beyond me.....and I have bloody complained I can tell you.
Tell me it's not just me!

Jeez 10 minutes to log on to the Co news service reports page...investegate.
FFS they cannot even spell the word correctly!

Is it just me who has noticed the useless internet constantly being interrupted, taking ages to access a page.... 'loading' (the most hated word in English) an all round highly frustrating experience of late. For instance accessing the REA page takes 5 or 6 goes to post a message.

Try dumping your stocks in a panic if your on a mobile! Is it any better than a quick call to your broker..."sell everything?"

Indonesias GDP slipped to 5% from 5.17% last year owing to the slowdown in exports and weaker manufacturing output.
The country was also hit by slumping palm and coal prices both key commodities to the economy.
The on going China/US trade war effected growth and tourism numbers will be impacted due to the virus, some 2 million Chinese visit Indonesia annually. The Govt cut rates several times last year to boost overseas investment now on hold until the virus dies out.

A $ gain in any of the Dow 30 stocks equates to c.7 points on the index. So big moves in Boeing(+$9) and Wallgreen boosted the mrkt in the morning session some 80 higher.

Earlier the Dow hit an intra day record high of 29401(+110) on "dip" buying at open. China agreeing to cut tariffs on some US imports and good Q4 nos from Twitter & Bristol Meyers lifted stocks, of which 71% of the 60% reported to date have beaten expectations.
Tesla bounced back from Wednesadays hammering down 17% on product delay news and Deutche Bank have cut global GDP to 3.1% from 3.3% and China Q1 GDP to 4.6%. At close the Dow put on 89 (29380) the SP 11 (3346) NS gained 63 (9572) both record closes and R2 slipped 4 (1677).

Hope's are being fuelled that the virus is being contained though there are few real signs of the virus being brought under control with over 31,000 infections and 636 deaths. In fact in Hubei province the authorities have switched off lifts to discourage residents from going outside and gatherings for birthday parties are banned. Mrkts think there will be no lasting impact on China growth as long as people recover fully from infections and the death toll starts to level out or better cease.

Li Wienlang a Doctor in WuHan has died after contracting the virus. He was the first to warn others that 7 patients in his hospital had the virus this was back in late D few took notice. He was reported to the local police for scare-mongering on the internet and had to sign a statement at the local Police Station admitting his misdemeanors. Upon release he returned to work only to die a few weeks later according to State Media reports. The cruise liner stranded in Yokohama harbour has 60 positive cases of the virus. The liner is in lockdown for 14 days.
Little change in Asia all mrkts are off awaiting economic data out of China on Friday. HK has fallen the most (202 points) others low double fig nos.

The nos. Oil $55.29.
Gold $1568. Palm $758.
Vix 15. $1.294. €1.179.
PI 7275. FP 8402. FF -4
DF -6.
Morning all.

Further on price to book below are bofp calcs for:-

Anglo 0.62
Mpe 1.20.

Price to book is a popular stat among the investing community as it gives a quick indication of a companies under/over valuation compared to its asset base.
Stocks with low P/B value (usually 1 or less) are considered under valued ie...trading at less than the value of its assets.
Mind you with a Co like REA with consistent negative returns it may mean little and could indicate a Co in trouble. Best to compare on a like for like basis.

My calcs on REA book value places it firmly in the undervalued category with a P/B value of .375.

The EU's outright hostile attitude to palm oil has attributed to a 42% drop in Malaysian export shipments over the last 5 years.
Many see this as the EU aligning itself with the green lobby & NGOs who dislike the demon oil and expansion of agriculture in developing countries.
The EU wants to protect its rapeseed industry which cannot compete with palm oil by ultimately phasing out the oil by restrictive practices.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where palm can be replaced by other oils such as coconut for its pricing and flexibility.
Palm oil needs to expand the oils usage by creating new product innovations via better cultivation practices, utilise higher yielding oils and inter cropping with value crops such as coconuts and pineapple thus not wholly relying on the volatile palm price.

Medical staff in HK have entered their 3rd day on strike over the border remaining open. To date 17 confirmed cases of infections and just 1 death reported in HK, while on the mainland deaths are 563 all but 2 are on mainland China and infections over 28,000. Seventy three deaths were reported on the mainland (last 24 hours) mostly in Hubei province. The virus has spread to 25 nations with 191 cases confirmed said the WHO.
However the WHO is suspicious that the figures released by the Chinese Health Authorities under report the death/infection toll by some margin.

In NY stocks soared on news that a British scientist may have a vaccine for the virus, trials go ahead as early as next week.
The vaccine even if found to be a cure is likely too late for current use unless a pandemic occurs and in months to come the vaccine would be available. Mrkts bounce on such flimsy hopes.
Much depends on China containing the rapidly spreading virus and the 50m people now quarantined. A cruise liner is moored in HK and another with 3600 passengers (10 confirmed infections) is docked in Yokohama harbour under 14 days quarantine as these are hot beds of viral infections.

MSCI(W) +8 (568)
DJ +468 (28808)
SP +48 (3298) R
NS +195 (9468) R
R2 +25 (1657)

Stocks are soaring across Asia this morning on hopes that the economic impact of the virus will be less than feared despite higher death and infection rates. Mrkts were also boosted by a surprise $75bn tariff cut in US goods. Towards close some profit taking is trimming gains in Tokyo.
TK +618
HK +740
SH +36
SK +63
The nos:- Oil $56.41.
Gold $1558. Palm $762.
Vix 15. $ 1.298. € 1.181.
PI 7286. FP 8360. FF+48
DF+213.
Morning all.

Indonesia's biofuel programme will need an est 8.3mt to meet expected domestic demand this year which raises fears that there will not be enough palm oil to export. However better weather forecast could boost output.
The Govt is already preparing for B40 in 2021 as the B30 is proving a success. Cpo output rose 9% last year to 47mt and exports despite the US/China trade war and the EU bio ban still managed a 4% increase to 36mt.

However the virus in China where all export activities have been temporarily suspended was Indonesias largest market for cpo and products buying (6mt), India (4.8mt)
and the EU (4.6mt). Other mrkts are poised to take up the loss of China. Africa imported (2.6mt) an 11% increase last year and demand is expected to increase this year.

This morning Asian mrkts are moving ahead on hope's that recent moves by the PBof China & the Central Bank who injected $57bn into mrkts will limit the economic damage of the virus, 490 deaths to date. However mrkts are well off days high points.
This followed a strong rally in NY yesterday the mrkt posting solid gains on their best day in months, the NSDQ racing to an all time high as Apple jumped $10 and Msoft, Cisco & IBM headed the Bigboard of leaders. The SP had it's best daily gain in 6 months. Bonds fell, Gold dipped but crude rose above $50 as 'risk-on' assets were back in favour.
DJ +408 (28808)
SP +49 (3298)
NS +195 (9468)
R2 +25 (1657)

MSCI(W) 569 +8

TK +235 (23085)
HK +7 (26667)
SH +23 (2783)
SK +6 (2158)

The nos:- Oil $54.46.
Gold $1563. Palm $762.
Vix 16. $1.302. € 1.179.
PI 7233. FP 8307. FF-23.
DF-16.
Morning all.

Cpo traded in a narrow range today $726-$752 closing at $748. Since the Wuhan virus outbreak the price has come off c.$52
strangely hardly effecting palm share prices.

While the virus continues to spread and fatalities pile up China's growth numbers will take a hit in Q1 perhaps as much as 2% as an increasing economic toll takes place.
Businesses are closing by the hundreds, travel has all but ceased, Macau has closed all its casinos for 2 weeks, gymnasiums and exhibition centres are being converted into make shift hospitals. China is also struggling to manage the food supply to its 1.4bn people and keep prices in check particularly chicken which suffered from an outbreak of bird flu killing over 4000 and culling another 17,000 just as swine fever decimated the pig stocks.

Inevitably veg oil demand will weaken as people are not spending and visiting shops has fallen drastically. Xi Jin Ping has been putting some stick about warning officials to become more proactive as the system has fallen short in some areas. Failing to do so will result in 'severe' reprimands. Wet mrkts and trade in wild life is to cease forthwith.
Across the border in HK only one death has occured and just 17 reported infections whereas Shenzen on the other side has had hundreds of infections. Of the 16 border crossings 3 remain open where hundreds cross every day to visit, work or shop. Hospital workers are insisting on a total shut down of crossings.

Western bourses have steadied the Dow up 400 this afternoon and Asian futures looking better tomorrow but not out of the woods by a long way.

Cpo traded in a narrow range today $726-$752 closing at $748. Since the Wuhan virus outbreak the price has come off c.$52
strangely hardly effecting palm share prices.

While the virus continues to spread and fatalities pile up China's growth numbers will take a hit in Q1 perhaps as much as 2% as an increasing economic toll takes place.
Businesses are closing by the hundreds, travel has all but ceased, Macau has closed all its casinos for 2 weeks, gymnasiums and exhibition centres are being converted into make shift hospitals. China is also struggling to manage the food supply to its 1.4bn people and keep prices in check particularly chicken which suffered from an outbreak of bird flu killing over 4000 and culling another 17,000 just as swine fever decimated the pig stocks.

Inevitably veg oil demand will weaken as people are not spending and visiting shops has fallen drastically. Xi Jin Ping has been putting some stick about warning officials to become more proactive as the system has fallen short in some areas. Failing to do so will result in 'severe' reprimands. Wet mrkts and trade in wild life is to cease forthwith.
Across the border in HK only one death has occured and just 17 reported infections whereas Shenzen on the other side has had hundreds of infections. Of the 16 border crossings 3 remain open where hundreds cross every day to visit, work or shop. Hospital workers are insisting on a total shut down of crossings.

Western bourses have steadied the Dow up 400 this afternoon and Asian futures looking better tomorrow but not out of the woods by a long way.

Malaysia said the current spat with India over Kashmir is temporary and will be resolved shortly.
Malaysia's B20 biofuel programme starts this month and may support cpo prices in the months ahead.
Current cpo price up $18 to $746.

Just an observation at start of wk 6 REA is the only London 'palmer' posting a share price gain, not a lot but a gain nevertheless.

Hard to believe given ytd cpo has fallen c.$72 and crude $12...Means zilch I know and no doubt a major correction is coming....
Wk 7 trading statement from REA might put some fizz in the price but given Mpe & Anglo F/Y nos precipitated sp falls, what chance REA?

* Indonesia exports rose 4% to 36.18mt last year the highest in history but is seen slowing in 2020.
GAPKI association said Indonesia produced 47.1mt of cpo last year and 4.6mt of cpko up from 43mt & 4.3mt respectively in '18. At year end Indonesia held 4.6mt of palm stock c. 10% of annual output.