Member Info for JohnLewis79

Cpko prices hit an all time high of $2200 in 2011 up from a low of $256 in 2001. Current cpko price $945. Of course REA will not receive anything like that after all and sundry have dipped their fingers in the pie.

Triputra Agro Persada backed by a Singapore wealth fund might (GIC) might seek a listing in Indonesia valuing the business at c.$2bn.
The plantation Co has 170,000 ha planted across 27 estates and talks are very much at the preliminary stage.

The Indonesian Biofuel Association has said it will start trialling B40 biodiesel fuel in March following the success of B30.
This was in line with President Jokowi Widodo's plan to implement B40 fully in Jan 2021. Two models would be tested for B40 which is produced by distilling cpo and infusing FAME (fatty acid methylester) to the mix in order to reach the optimum level.

The Govt is eager to increase the mix of palm oil diesel to reduce oil imports which contribute heavilly to the country's trade deficit.
B30 fuel has performed very well and is forecast to consume some 9.6m kilolitres (1 kilolitre = 264 US gals) of palm oil this year.
Eventually Indonesia plans for B100 assuming all the tests prove successful. Currently imports of crude amounted to c.$7bn in 2018. Indonesia's GDP at Q3 2019 was $659.584M
(2018 $1,022,454M).
The Quarterly GDP per capita is $961 up $114 from last year.

Palm oil accounts for c.11% ($5.7bn) of Indonesias export earnings and supports 4.5m jobs. It's interesting to note that annual household income of palm farmers averages $6000 pa, for non palm farmers $800 pa with the poverty line based at c$350 pa.
***
Overnight stocks in NY were flat looking to earnings nos rather than the rise in fatalities (1115) and infections (45171) in China. Mrkts think they can work past the COVID-19 gloom if containing the spread.
***
DJ u/c (29276)
SP +6 (3358) R
NS +11 (9639) R
R2 +10 (1678)
***
Asia is better leading and Pan Pacifics are ahead on back of China intervening in SH to keep liquidity in the mrkts. Yet with over 70m people in quarantine in attempting to control the runaway epidemic and many struggling to find treatment, beds etc mrkts might be underestimating the severity of the knock on global effects. Worse to come imo.
***
TK +124
HK +292
SH +20
SK +15
The nos:- Oil$54.85.
Gold $1568. Palm $724.
Vix 15. $1.298. € 1.188.
PI 7315. FP 8392. FF +12
DF +78. MSCI(W) 578.
Morning all.

Just caught up with your reply to my post of me moaning about the site.
Tried the head and shoulders thingy just offered me more options none of which I understood. Lse have def made navigating the site via mob much more clumsy to what purpose I have no idea.
I give this latest version a couple of months before the mrk X whizz bang version screws with us again. Thanx boyo...

Simon 'Evil' Cawkwell who imo was the catalyst of the surging sp back at 135 ish, bringing his fan club along has been keeping shtum following REAs trading update.
Of course he's not obliged to comment perhaps waiting for the AR in April.
I'm sure his views will be more valid than mine as he may know the Directors and be closer to the action.
Whether he's as bullish as he once was ('time to aggressively buy REA') is what interests me most.

Total cases:- as at 11/2/20.

China 42,638
Japan 163
Sing 45
HK 42
Thai 32
SK 28
Less than 20
22 countries

The piping system of a building in HK is being looked at as a potential cause of airborne transmission of feces, after a person living 10 stories below the 12th confirmed case contracted the infection.
Some of the internal vents might not have been properly blocked allowing the virus to be transported to other flats.
The building has been evacuated for further investigation.

The JCI (Jakarta Comp Index) has had 5 'bottoms' since 3/19 recovering sharply each time.
Having bottomed out in Jan when the index slumped 6% the mrkt is showing signs of recovery in Feb as hopes that the virus has hit its peak and is petering out.

Panic selling by foreign investors who pulled out $171bn accelerated the decline. Bank Indonesia has injected $1.8bn buying Govt Bonds to stabilize prices and provide liquidity.
Indonesias GDP has hardly moved these last 3 years averaging c.5% yoy nevertheless among the best in Asia.
Lower palm oil exports might be counter balanced by lower imports of 'crude' under the B30 biofuel mix
by 2020 close. Another 5% GDP is priced in.

The UK Food Products sector which Palm stocks are a constituent of is up 3% ytd and near all time highs.

In Malaysia the plantation index is off c.5.5% ytd but up 6% since Jan 2019. As ever the agriculture sector can be battered by outside influences be it embargos, disease, no rainfall, fires, El Nino, manual labour shortages etc.., its a wonder anything ever gets produced given what nature can throw at us.
For sure the sector is very resilient and in due course will survive the China virus but $1000 palm is ways away. More realistically the palm price is up 33% over 52wks but as mentioned before the 'achieved' price is another matter. Kinda like REA nav sp of c.450 eh? Cloud cookoo land.
Do you think the Robinows would offer 450 to take REA private? Do you think Mpe or Anglo would offer 450? Not a chance.

All the talk of tight supplies, falling production etc helping to sustain prices into 2020 are being ignored by dealers on the exchanges who deal in the "here & now" of waning demand.

Consequently palm prices have been on a downward spiral since early Jan when the seriousness of the China virus became apparent. Prices had only one way to go and they went there... now $732.

No investor in this sector should be surprised as it's almost a certainty production vols will be lower in 2020 and demand fickle at the best of times may not support prices above $800. B30/40 in Indonesia is an unknown quantity (too early to tell). It's expected to be strong but there's many a slip...
and the sector as a whole continues to face negative condemnatory comments from the rest of the world.

Until the virus is overcome completely commodity prices will cont to drift and shares of palm will underperform the mrkt.
REA have already told us forget H1 (it's what they are good at) so jam butties in H2 but dont bank on it.

Malaysian palm oil inventories fell for the 5th straight month and exports to China halved as the virus & extended holiday crashed demand to 176mt (300mt) sending prices lower.
Exports totalled 1.2mt (1.7mt) and production 1.165mt (1.737mt).
Pakistan said it would help Malaysia to counter lost sales to India making a record purchase of 171kt up from 81kt.
Data from MPOB.

With no lead from Tokyo Asian mrkts moved upwards in morning trading after comments from Xi Jin Ping that the virus would not impact Chinas economic activity in the longer term and the fundamentals are on solid ground. Mrkts expect another round of stimulus to support the domestic economy.
However the virus has claimed its 1018 victim and infections total 43,100/4043 recovered. Health officials say new cases in Wuhan & Hubei are dropping off giving hope that the tide is turning. Wuhan is still in lockdown.
TK closed
HK +338
SH +8
SK +20

Earlier NY was in record busting mood the 500 hit a record close (9628) as did the Nsdq up 108 (9628). The Dow put on 174 (29277) shy of a record.
Good corporate Q4 nos outweighed virus worries.
Tesla cont its strong run as it reported their Shanghai factory will reopen on Monday and vague talk that Google could offer $1500 a share which would value the co at c.$250bn. Crude gained 56 to $50.12, Exxon fell to the bottom of the big board losers and t/bill yields cont to fall.

The nos:- Oil $53.98.
Gold $1572. Palm $734.
Vix 15. $1.291. € 1.184.
PI 7303. FP 8400. FF+43.
DF +93. MSCI (W) 575.
Morning all.With no lead from Tokyo Asian mrkts moved upwards in morning trading after comments from Xi Jin Ping that the virus would not impact Chinas economic activity in the longer term and the fundamentals are on solid ground. Mrkts expect another round of stimulus to support the domestic economy.
However the virus has claimed its 1018 victim and infections total 43,100/4043 recovered. Health officials say new cases in Wuhan & Hubei are dropping off giving hope that the tide is turning. Wuhan is still in lockdown.
TK closed
HK +338
SH +8
SK +20

Earlier NY was in record busting mood the 500 hit a record close (9628) as did the Nsdq up 108 (9628). The Dow put on 174 (29277) shy of a record.
Good corporate Q4 nos outweighed virus worries.
Tesla cont its strong run as it reported their Shanghai factory will reopen on Monday and vague talk that Google could offer $1500 a share which would value the co at c.$250bn. Crude gained 56 to $50.12, Exxon fell to the bottom of the big board losers and t/bill yields cont to fall.

The nos:- Oil $53.98.
Gold $1572. Palm $734.
Vix 15. $1.291. € 1.184.
PI 7303. FP 8400. FF+43.
DF +93. MSCI (W) 575.
Morning all.

On mobile.

Morning devonplay I like the idea of fractional shares but dont really think they are for me as i tend to swerve the likes of the £20 stocks (RDSB) etc...mind you back in the 80s i used to dabble in call options kinda fractional shares if you like. Dont know what happened to them...might have gone out of fashion or demand ceased? Whatever I find it difficult enough to make money in stocks let alone other exotic instruments...

As of February 9th 2020.

Total cases 40,620
Fatalities 910
Death rate 2.2%
Recovered 3324
Serious/
Critical 6494
Countries 28

RPO orders from India slumped 10%-15% to date but are likely to be temporary said FGV Holdings because supplies are low this Q and food and fuel demand is set to stay robust into 2020.
China demand for veg oil is well down and expected to cont this Q where prices are forecast to trade at R2500-R2575. Current palm price $744 not far off $100 from ytd high.

With little glimmer of hope that the infections (40,000+) worldwide and fatalities (908), 97 on Sunday alone the deadliest so far is being contained proved false. Asian stocks took fright and fell during the morning session.
Talk over the wk/end of better virus news was premature.
Badly hit sectors are tourism, retailing, electronics & shipping with supply chain interruptions affecting c.51,000 companies doing business in China. Food prices have shot up 20% and consumer price inflation up to 5.4% as the Chinese Central Bank has pumped in $127bn into the economy.

With large sections of the workforce returning to work in a staggered fashion some semblance of normality has returned in areas around Beijing but not in Hubei and the surrounds which are ghost like with empty streets and little sign of normal life activity.
Mrkts:
MSCI(W) 574
TK -142
HK -167
SH +5
SK +5

The nos:- Oil $54.51.
Gold $1575. Palm $747.
Vix 15. $1.290. €1.178.
PI 7288. FF -15. DF -3.
Morning all.

Morning devonplay restoring the pref divs is a plus for sure...not that I have any.
Unfortunately REA will be working for the Banks and other creditors and not for ordinary shareholders for a longtime to come I fear.
Not an ideal position for most of us lower down the food chain and I'm struggling to find a good reason to stay invested here.
But while I see little upside for the stock this year given the bad vibes over H1 im holding just in case there's some amalgamation in Indo palms.

The long range weather forecasts are unfavourable for palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia this year and increases in prices will also contribute to a fall in global imports.

In H1 20, its estimated prices could surge 15% to 20% due to slowing production, rising domestic usage from the B20/B30 biofuel programme.
This is pushing towards a supply crunch of palm but will not impact the demand side. To fill the gap imports of soybean and sunflower oils are expected to increase c.7%.
According to USDA global output of soy and sun will increase to 57mt and 21mt respectively as India and China ramp up imports.
However estimates for palm might have to be revised as prices for commodities plunged in China. Iron Ore dropped 6%, Steel fell 8%, crude down 6%, palm off 7% may be effected less as it's the low season for demand following the NY break & Copper 7% lower.
All hit their limit downs at one stage as investors deserted the resource sector following the virus outbreak.

Stocks pulled back on Friday close. Only SH posting a small rise as virus fears continue to bedevill investors. The coronavirus has now killed 811 in China plus 2 abroad, exceeding the Sars virus (774 fatalities) and approaching the death toll of the MERS outbreak in 2012 (858). China has given the virus a new name it's to be called (NCP).
The vast majority of deaths/infections are in China with Japan infections next highest at 90. Recorded Infections are over 37,000 but with the incubation period at 2-14 days the nos look certain to increase. Medical supplies are in short supply and the whole health system is under tremendous pressure.
Gaming giant Tencent is telling its staff to take another week off and a temporary 2000 bed hospital in Wuhan is already taking patients.

The expected China data nos mrkts were waiting for on Friday are delayed. The Jan & Feb nos will be combined because the General Admin of Customs wanted to bring the data in line with the National Bureau of Statistics.
Morning all.

Forget the 178 I've no idea what I'm talking about.