Member Info for JohnLewis79

Wk 8 sees the Nikkei off 210 after the Govt reported the economy contracted 6.3% in Q4 with covid-19 likely to impact consumer spending in Q1.
Over in China the Govt trimmed rates from 3.25% to 3.15%, cut taxes and injected $28bn also conducted $14bn in reverse repos (buying short term securities). Indonesia is expected to follow the Phillipines and Thai Govts base rate cuts.

TK -200
HK +125
SH +38
SK -4
The nos:- Oil $57.21.
Gold $ 1586. Palm $722.
Vix 13.6 $ 1.305. € 1.203.
PI 7316. FF +22. DF+70.
Morning all.

At present the death rate is calculated by dividing fatalities by confirmed cases. The resulting number does not represent the true case death rate and might be off by orders of (----) magnitude. A precise case % rate is not possible at the moment.

Latest (16/2/20)
* 70 new cases on cruise ship, 9.6% tested positive (335/3711) passengers.
* 1 new case in S.Korea, no travel history to China.
* 166 new cases, 3 deaths outside of Hubei province.
* 9664 have recovered.
* Mortality rates (see above).
Nationwide 2.1%
Hubei 4.9%
Wuhan 3.1%
Others 0.16%

India which has been Malaysias biggest customer for RPO for years, accounts for
c.25% of its output.
However since the spat over Kashmir with India and the ban, Malaysia shipments have plunged 85% to c.47,000t the lowest since 2011.
Indonesia has filled some of the gap but a re-balancing of the mrkt is underway. Malaysia has boosted exports to Pakistan (100%), S.Arabia and Ghana who have traditionally bght from Indonesia.
At the moment this is not critical for Malaysia though stockpiles are tight.

Covid-19 cases drop for the 3rd day in a row. A 4th death outside mainland China occured in Paris. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Yokohama a total of 335 (330from HK) have tested positive.
All banknotes are being disinfected and stored in banks for 14 days prior to being reissued.

*Update.
Cases 69270
China 68502
Deaths 1669
China 1665
Infected 57941
Mild 46642
Serious 11299

*Countries (29)
Infections
Japan 408
S'pore 72
HK 56
US 15
UK 9
Morning all.

As of Feb 15th 7.00am (1526) deaths.

Expert opinions on covid-19.

* I think we should be prepared for a very very bad flu season or maybe the worst-ever of modern times. (Prof Marc Lipsitch)
* I hope this outbreak may be over in April. (Prof Nanshan Zhong)
* It could infect 60% of the global pop if inchecked.
(Prof Gabriel Leung)
* We are estimating c.50,000 new infections occurring in China per day. It will probably peak in Wuhan in
a months time and a month or two later in rest of China. (Prof N.Ferguson)
* This looks far more like H1N1's spread than SARS
I am increasingly alarmed.
(Dr Peter Piot)
* increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained
(Prof Thomas Frieden).
* it sounds and looks as if it's going to be a very highly transmissable virus which may still be learning what it can do. We dont know it's full potential yet. .(Robert Webster infectious disease expert)

Update:-
Cases 67,105
China 66,493
Recovery 8303
Active cases 57276.
Mild 81% / Serious 19%

Countries 29
* Japan 260 (+1)
* S'pore 67
* HK 56
* USA 15
* UK 9

The Indonesian Govt is planning to sue 5 and likely 16 more companies over fires on their concessions last year. Indonesia as a whole suffered fires that razed c. 6,200sq miles.
However getting paid is altogether a different matter through companies stonewalling, use of legal manoeuvres and court bureaucracy which renders rulings practically unenforceable.
To date the Ministry has taken 17 companies to court over fires winning judgements against 9 with combined fines totalling
$231m, yet only one, a pulpwood Co has paid $5.7m a fraction of the full amount
It took the Ministry 4 years before a court ordered a subsidiary of Jakarta listed Bakrie Plantations to pay $1.9m in fines over fires on 319 acres of its land.

Another duff wk on palm stocks. Cpo prices do not believe the brouhaha of those in the know predicting higher prices.
Wk 7 saw palm fall $34 (5%), clearly at the coal
face they see lower prices.
Ytd (wk7) palm prices are averaging $737 down from $818 at wk1.

REA fell 13 on just 3888 traded (11 bargains) with a small adjustment to close at 153....make of that what you will. Forget it imo, it's a fictional price based on no metric I'm aware of.... guess that's the whole point.
I think 120 is a serious possibility even on the odd passer by selling a few shares and covid-19 hanging around for the next few months.
The background and sentiment is awful not just here but mrkts worldwide.

I know of two seriously big investors who pulled out of the mrkt pre covid-19 and are happy to stay on the sidelines. Can't say I blame them as the odds of this 10yr bull run must be 4/5 to come to an end soon.
This day 10 years ago the Dow hit (10,099) and the 500 (1076). The ftse (5142) & All share (2633).
You do the math but it's been a blockbuster 10 years coming after Lehman and the 2008 recession.

Malaysia no longer intends to file a WTO lawsuit against the EU on restrictions on palm based biofuel.
Instead they will seek to convince the EU to change its treatment of the crop in a review scheduled for release in 2021 to regard palm oil bio as a renewable source. They add that forest cover is being maintained above 50% as estates cut back entering forest for planting palm.
However the EU maintain palm oil based biofuel should not count towards renewable energy targets based on deforestation issues.
The EU bloc as a whole consumed over 7mt of palm oil, 65% of which was used for energy.
Meanwhile Asian producers seek alternative solutions to satisfy demand when covid-19 dies out and normal trade resumes.

A pause in the bullish uptrend in NY as covid-19 infections and fatalities continue to grow (see below). Mrkts in Asia closer to the action were mixed the Nikkei off near 200 but others posting small gains. The spread of the disease seems to be slowing and Hubei province reported a big fall off in infections after the previous days massive rise. The WHO said there was no significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak.
DJ -128 (29423)
SP -6 (3374)
NS -14 (9712)
R2 +4 (1694)

TK -140
HK +116
SH +5
SK +9
*The nos:- Oil $56.38.
Gold $1578. Palm $724.
Vix 14. $1.305. € 1.204.
PI 7314. FP 8298. FF +10
DJ +48.
* virus update:
Hubei province reported 4823 new cases of which 3095 were clinically diagnosed and 116 deaths of which 8 clinically diagnosed.

*Cases 65,247
Japan 252
S'pore 58
HK 53
*Deaths 1491
(China 1488)
Recover 7099
Countries 28
Morning all.

You'da thunk a late reported sell would have hit the airwaves by now?
Still time I guess....

No interest at 140 bid from pis thinking may go lower.....

Est shareholders funds for 2019 is 420p of which the EV planted ha accounts for c.155p or $8763 (adj) (Hardman). I thought I read PBJ was sold at a much higher valuation in '18 ($11,000?) and the Asian Plantation ha av was near $11,000 (6/'19). There's your adj for you.

I remember reading a article on a one time successful investor who made it big in 70s/80s who said stocks were most interesting when nobody is interested in them. That struck a chord in me.
It made instant sense to avoid the stampeding herd and look for the castaways. For sure they must meet your criteria for buying whatever it be, gut feeling, the nos, overlooked and unloved etc...
That's initially what brought me here and has kinda worked out ok'ish as I sold half my holding higher up and the balance is in for c.120 whence I will hold pending events.

Beza, probably the best place to be until the F/Y report in April when actual nos will be available.
You know the saying "when there's blood on the streets"....or as Newton said " I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people"...
or as WB says " be greedy when others are fearful by acting in a way opposite to the prevailing sentiment. He made a ton of money by going against the crowd and he tended to hold 'forever'
It's a strategy I have favoured though not in Mr WB league of success who readilly admits when he sees diamonds cast as cigar butts he acts like an oversexed guy in a brothel. Ever had that feeling?

....of ebita (earnings before int, tax, dep, amor & paying the cleaners). Or as C.Munger dep Chairman of Berkshire H calls it Bull s**t earnings.
I agree and it gets worse when you start talking about 'adjusted' ebita. Confusion and obfuscation or keep the buggers in the dark is the aim....just look at the notes to some ARs for evidence. Not that many read them anymore?
Let's face it most don't own stocks long enough to worry about such things as adjusted this that and t'other.

Overnight US mrkts went their merry way higher, covid-19 a distant memory. The Dow, 500 & techs all closed at all time highs. Crude and the $ also gained.
DJ +275 (29551) R
SP +22 (3379) R
NS +87 (9726) R
R2 +12 (1689)

In Asia the recent increase in fatalities and infections weigh on investors and confidence in the Chinese authorities ability to stem the spread has been badly shaken. However mrkts have taken the news calmly with only small falls.
TK -45
HK -84
SH -24
SK -4
The nos:- Oil $55.82.
Gold $1577. Palm $733.
Vix 14. $ 1.295. € 1.192.
PI 7283. FP 8361. FF -6
DF -80. MSCI(W) 578.

* Covid-19 update*
There has been a big jump in the reported cases due to the adoption of a new diagnosis tabulation which has accounted for 13,332 as clinically diagnosed added to the 14840 confirmed cases. There were 242 new deaths in Hubei the worst day rate to date. China has by far the largest nos of cases followed by Japan (247). The liner in Yokohama (218/3700) have caught the virus and are confined to their cabins for the 2nd wk.
A liner has docked in Cambodia after being refused by 5 other ports.
* Overview.
Cases 60373
Deaths 1369
Recovered 6032
Morning all.

Evening Beza, companies rarely in my experience ever comment on daily sp fluctuations.
They would normally only issue an RNS on 'price sensitive' info to the mrkt.

Today's few trades hardly qualify for that. So it's just the daily to and fro of deals. As I'm sure you know the free float is very small could be less than a couple of million so moves either way tend to be exaggerated and subject to a fair bit of manipulation. But £10m sliced off the mrkt cap looks well overdone and provides a buying opportunity for the longer term investor and by that I mean 'bottom drawing' your certs for the next 3-5 years.

Very unfashionable to take that view I know but in REAs case it's the only way ahead as I'm afraid profits will remain illusory till 2021/2 and assumes a lot on cpo being above $800 (some estates in Malaya just about break even at $630) the Covid-19 dying out before the H/Y, output being maintained, costs nailed down to the absolute minimum and resolution of the debt interest level.
Hope's on B30/40 biofuel should, if successful underpin cpo prices via domestic demand this and next year though that doesn't automatically rerate the share price.

REA will be working for the Banks and creditors for years to come hamstrung by the debt binge now near 4x the mrkt cap. The big question is can REA trade out / reduce its colossal debts and become self financing?

Ridiculous 16% drop in the sp on just £8,000 of sales. I won't go 'into-one' as it's just a snapshot in time.