Member Info for JohnLewis79

Cpo had another down day which all indicators pointed to closing at $696. In 5 wks cpo has fallen $136 and REA sp 32 (similar % falls). How much lower is anyones guess. Just goes to show how skittish dealers are in the face of covid-19 and ongoing uncertainty over supply & demand.
When in doubt sell and move aside. No doubt a bounce back will happen but likely not till H/Y too late for REA H1 nos to look respectable.

Learn from others mistakes * swerve broker tips * cut losses.

In a very small sample of views relating to the stock mrkt I collated the views of 7 investor acquaintances (I excluded myself). Here are the Q&A.

Q do you trust the management?
A 5/7 had no idea who they were.
Q Have you ever spoken to a Director outside of the AGM?
A 6/7 No
Q Have you ever attended an AGM?
A 5/7 Yes.
Q do you think the mrkt values your co correctly?
A 6/7 No.
Q Would that be under/over valued?
A 5 under, 1 over & 1 don't know.
Q Do you think the bod works for shareholders or themselves?
A 3/7 for themselves.
Q Do you think as a private investor you are valued by the board?
A 7/7 No.
Q is the bod dedicated to improve share price?
A 3/7 No.
Q Are shareholders kept fully informed and up to date with events?
A 4/7 No.
Q should UK companies report Quarterly?
A 6/7 Yes.
Q Do you hold stocks for more than a year?
A 5/7 No.
Q Do you consider yourself an investor or gambler?
A investor 5/gambler 2
Q Do you day trade?
A 5/7 No.
Q Do you buy shares in companies, sectors you dont understand?
A 4/7 Yes.
Q if a share remains u/c for a month or more, what do you do?
A 5/7 Sell it.
Q if the sp crashes 30-50% on results do you buy, sell or hold?
A 1 buy, 2 sell & 4 hold.
Q Do you average down?
A 3/7 Yes.
Q Do you make your own investment decisions?
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Do you act on tips from friends?
A 3/7 Yes.
Q Do you read the AR?
A 3/7 No.
Q Do you read the FT?
A 7/7 No.
Q Do you read the mrkt report/business section of your paper every day?
A 5/7 Yes.
Q Do you jump in and out of stocks?
A 3/7 Yes.
Q Are you an inactive or hyperactive investor?
A 4/7 hyper.
Q Do you run profits and cut losses?
A Yes 7/7 and No 5/7.
Q Do you sympathise with those who lose money on the mrkts?
A 5/7 Yes.
Q How many shares do you hold?
A less than 5 (3). Between 5 &10 (3). More than 10 (1).
Q Do you invest in Aim?
A 5/7 No.
Q Why not?
A Too many duds and dodgy management (2/7) & (3/7) lost money before.
Q Do you invest in bonds?
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Do you invest in mutual fund(s)
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Have you ever invested in physical gold or shares?
A 3/7 Yes.
Q Have you dealt in options, spread bets etc..?
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Have you ever shorted a stock you own?
A 7/7 No.
Q Do you check the sp every day Yes or No
A 5/7 Yes.
Q Do you bet on the horses on a regular basis?
A 6/7 Yes.
Q Do you play the lottery weekly?
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Do you go to casinos?
A 6/7 No.
Q Do you play poker in high stakes cash games?
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Have you ever had a multi bagger?
A 1/7 Yes.
Q Do you consider yourself a successful investor?
A 2/7 Yes.
Q Over your investing lifetime have you made money, broke even or lost?
*Made money 2/7
*Broke even 1/7
*Lost 4/7
Q how accurate were the above. Very, not very?
A 2 very, 3 not very & 2 a guess.
Q were your losses damaging to your financial health?
A 2/7 Yes.

Q If you could have your time over again name what you would do differently?
A * research more
* lea

For all those who believe in NAV, ok I know some companies might trade near their asset vaue but I never find them.
So...here's another gem of an agri company whose NAV is c.£188m (63p) trades at less than 6p valuing the company at £16m (PBT $3m and has turned a coin in 4/5 last years).

And i think REA has problems!! I used to own a fair few in this co but sentiment, politics, founder retiring and currencies blah blah tanked the stock which traded at 11p in Jan 2019. I sold out at 10 for a loss through sheer frustration.
My one time trading partner cont to hold in the hope that mrkt volatility which creates opportunity will someday return here.
I'm doing the same at REA which only goes to show I know not what I do.

......... ftse up, oil up, builders up, gold & silver up, everyone up....er
not quite Leem1...... bloody palm oil down...hey heh heh!

Cpo may have found a floor at $700 as the range has been narrowing these last few days. Perhaps some speculative froth has been blow off with traders fearing to tread in.
Only fools call the bottom. What was a $20-$30 range normal a week or so ago is now down to sub $10 as lot vols slump.

On the 5-50 DMA (4) buys (8) sells. On the Tech (0) buys (8) sells & (0) neutral with all indicators pointing prices are headed lower.

Indonesias exports to China total just 84,000t month to date (371,000).
Jan saw total exports to China of 483,000t.
The Plantation DG said demand from China (19% of total exports 2019) is still expected to increase from the mid-month number.
Exports as a whole are ahead ytd despite the slump in covid-19 sales data. Noone can be sure that demand will revert to the normal when and if the virus is defeated.

With the death toll rising in China, demand falling away and operations nowhere near back to normal analysts see further corrections in the palm price.
Positive fundamentals mean little in a bear grip on prices as panicky dealers sell out. In early Jan cpo hit R3150 but by months end had slumped 17% the steepest fall for 7 years.
Current $713 c.$120 off ytd high seen 13/1/20.
Sooner or later palm company share prices will wake up the new normal. If prices fall to the $650 level many will not be profitable as doubts surface about B30 picking up the lower sales & slack export demand.

With the death toll rising in China, demand falling away and operations nowhere near back to normal analysts see further corrections in the palm price.
Positive fundamentals mean little in a bear grip on prices as panicky dealers sell out. In early Jan cpo hit R3150 but by months end had slumped 17% the steepest fall for 7 years.
Current $713 c.$120 off ytd high seen 13/1/20.
Sooner or later palm company share prices will wake up the new normal. If prices fall to the $650 level many will not be profitable as doubts surface about B30 picking up the lower sales & slack export demand.

Cases 75217
China 74186 (+1750)
Deaths 2012
China 2006 (+138)
Recover 14719
Actives 58486
Mild 46430
Serious 12056
Countries 29
Diamond P 542
S'pore 81
Japan 77 (+3)
HK 62
SK 46 (+15)
Thai 35

Experts caution that the worst is over despite strict limits imposed by the authorities which has seen some progress the death toll continues to rise in China and the spread of infections outside China also increasing.
More than half the pop is under some limitations and 150m face restrictions on leaving their homes.

Overnight US mrkts slipped from record highs
except Nsdq which posted a record high close.
The Dow fell on Apples not hitting its expected 2Q $63bn revs, Dow inc and Intel pulled the index lower. However the Dow despite the virus is up 2.4% ytd the techs up over 8%.
DJ -166
SP -10
NS +1
R2 -4

Japan's better than expected export data buoyed mrkts across the region and news of Chinese mfg companies returning to work helped sentiment as the rate of infections seem to be slowing.
TK +235
HK +97
SH -7
SK -1

The nos: Oil $58.17.
Gold $1607. Palm $712
Vix 15. $ 1.300. € 1.204.
PI 7184. FP 8328. FF +55
DF +78. MSCI(W) 578.
IDR 13715.
Morning all.

REAs share price lies moribund in a slough of despond or nobody 'gaf' which is more to the point.
That's fine by me I dont need to see hundreds of trades a day to feel the 'lurve'.....the odd one or two will suffice even if arm twisted by the Co Broker...
Eventually the board will have to decide whether it's in the Co interest to keep a lse quote which I dont suppose is cheap or worthwhile outside of a prestige pov.
Trouble is REA have been listed for many years so despite the zero interest in the shares other considerations will outweigh going the delisting /private route (availability of finance) for one which unless the Robinows decide to pull will see a continuing static sp.

Whatever they decide the current situation might imo would serve holders better away from the scrutiny of mrkts if holders were offered a sensible value, which as you know will never happen.
My last experience of this did not end well so going private would mean your shares would be untradeable under MIFID rules (no matched bargain basis) and subject to all sorts of hindrances as a private Co, the main one being you would never get told anything, dependent on a miniscule dividend.

So REA to be taken private by the majority holders is a non starter a) because you would never get a fair price which would be at a low ball offer below current sp, which looks precarious pitched at a tightrope 153. A wobble downwards could see 100 in no time which would certainly suit the board enabling them to force through a compulsory cheap offer. Would you expect anything else?
Remember pis here are an irrelevance. The board certainly dont need to act in our best interests despite all the rules and regulations. Just an added risk to holding here which suits manic depressives and 'dog stock' buyers like me who hope (in vain) the bod have at least one with a brain cell to match me.
Afternoon all....

....takes them 2 months should read 16wks!!

HSBC has reported its 2019 results this morning.
If you have the stamina there are over 600 pages to wade through.
Like REA they lost money last year but unlike REA it took just 7 wks from close of 2019 to update shareholders of all the numbers and supporting strategic documents.

REA whose 2018 report was 130 pages long takes c.2 months to reproduce the nos. What takes them so long? Ditch the pen and ink guys.

Commodity prices plunged in Feb as Rubber, Coal & Palm prices were all significantly lower on China demand slow-down due to covid-19.
On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange:-
Rubber down 17%
Palm down 15%
Coal down 5%

All three are among Indonesias main commodity exports and contribute hugely to foreign exchange earnings. Indonesias trade deficit was $3.2bn last year ($8.7bn) with China importing 4.4mt of oil the 3rd largest buyer after India & the EU.
Much depends on defeating the virus which shows little sign of ending in China.

Covid-19:-
Cases 73,336
China 72,438
Deaths 1,874
China 1,869
Recovered 12,876
Actives 58,625
Mild 46,830
Serious 11,795

Countries 29
(Diamond Princess 454)
S'pore 77
Japan 66
HK 61
Thai 35
SK 31
* no increases in countries with less than 31 infections.

latest opinions:
*All predictions are important most predictions are wrong.
(Dr M.Ryan Exec Dir WHO)
* If a pandemic happens 40%-70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected.
(Prof M. Lipsitch.
Harvard).

US mrkts were closed for Presidents day.
In Asia covid-19 and the fall out is hurting stocks in TK and HK. Economists think China's Q1 GDP could fall as much as 2.5%
from Q4 so severe has been the impact on export trade and businesses closing for almost a month that some avenues of trade may be closed forever because economic activity practically halted throughout China. The Yuan has been visibly weaker v the USD.

Imports to SK fell 50% during the first 10 days of Feb and China has cancelled 'Auto China' one of the biggest motor trade shows in the world held in Beijing.
TK -349
HK -374
SH -5
SK -34
The nos:- Oil $57.07.
Gold $1589. Palm $710.
Vix 14. $1.299. € 1.199.
PI 7246. FP 8418. FF -44
DF -157. MSCI(W) 580.
Morning all.

Far Eastern mrkts closed mixed yesterday but Shanghai threw off covid-19 concerns to go nearly 3% higher after intervention in the mrkts from the Govt to support the economy and infections worldwide may be slowing as the nos in China point to a slow down of infections outside of Hubei.
Noone is calling the virus under control let alone defeated but signs are things may be getting better as long as all figs released by China are treated with caution.

Currently something like half of Chinas population are living under strict living and travel restrictions be it self exclusion or hospital quarantined.
Health Officials are going door to door to seek/test for the virus in areas not previously visited. It beggars belief that China could possibly do more. As a totalitarian state the lockdown of half the population would result in insurrection in Western economies. Yet the Chinese are sensible enough to realise it's the only way to go.

Imagine 5m Londoners confined in doors for 14-20 days. Never happen imo. Hell the Luftwaffe did their best to bomb Londoners to bits killing 32,000 during the blitz. So what's a weeny virus going to do?
We must hope that these draconian measures prove successful in weeks to come and the virus will die out through natural causes and China inc rumbles back to life.

When that happens the global economy should respond fairly quickly as supply lines, orders etc..., get filled and in the case of palm demand reverts to the normal before the price hits $500 and tanks estate companies profits and outlook into 2021. This year looks a bust for REA and 2021 too far away to make any sensible forecast.
One forecast I stand by is 200 is nailed on as a gonner or should that be a 'gooner' in 2020?

If your a lousy stock picker like me trusting to such antiquated fundamental formulae and the like, perhaps you might try new techniques that promise you how to play the mrkt and ostensibly succeed as an investor.
Wave theories, candlesticks, trending oscillators etc might be worth a look if profits, eps and roce dont do it for you.
Heres how an analyst described the days action on the street some years ago.
"It was a bonus day for traders as the major indices had a trend down air pocket following the basic first hour strategy flip top pattern....the rising prices on declining volume into month end and the artificial price action on Monday with the increased terror warning made the indices vulnerable to an air pocket. NYSE vol was only 1.4bn the .50 retracement between 45.78 high and the 17.32 10/02 low is 31.55 and the price has now formed a 17 day range at this retracement zone".... Hope you followed that.

I have adopted in my limited way Ben Grahams theories in his 'The Intelligent Investor' book, basically he said seek out discrepancies between the value of a business and prices of a small piece of that business in the mrkt.... so called value investing. Doesn't work for me or rarely does I should say.
As I said I'm a lousy stock picker. Too late for me to start studying charts, soggy bottoms the movements of planets and the price of M&S socks etc,..ya never know it might work for you. Gluck!

Feb 17.
Covid-19.

Cases 71336
China 70552
Deaths 1776
China 1771
(Others) 5
Recovered 11098
Actives 58462
Mild 47164
Serious 11298
Countries 29
Infections
Japan 416
S'pore 75
HK 57
Thai 34
SK 30
Latest opinion.
The virus is probably with us beyond this season beyond this year....(Dr Redfield US CDC Director).

China is struggling to get people back to work to open factories and resume daily life balancing this with the need to contain infections the vast majority in Hubei and surrounds. China has been practically shut off for 3 weeks.
Nationals off the cruise ship moored in Yokohama are being evacuated home where they will face a further 14-20 days isolation.