Member Info for JohnLewis79

Indonesia plans to raise palm oil levies to support expansion of the B30 program.
The current levies are set at a max of $50 pt for palm oil exports depending on the type of palm product. The levies will be increased because the price diff between biodiesel made from palm oil and standard gas oil has widened.
The Govt price for unblended biodiesel jumped to 9539 rupiah per litre in Feb. In comparison the standard diesel price was 6674 rupiah.
However biodiesel blends are currently selling for 5150 rupiah at many local gas stations.

Covid-19
Total cases 82,183
China 78499 +435
Deaths 2804
China 2747 +32

Recovered 32899

Active 46480
Mild 38011 (82%)
Ser 8469 (18%)

Countries 48

SK 1595 +334. (13 deaths)
DP 705. (4 deaths)
Italy 470 (12 deaths)
Jap 189 +17 (3 deaths)
Iran 139 (19 deaths)
Spore 93
HK 89 (2 deaths)
USA 60
Taiw 32 (1 death)
France 18 (2 deaths)
Phill 3 (1 death)
Tha above list only those countries registering a death.
Now more cases occur outside of China than within but recoveries are greater than newly infected. The nos of serious/critical cases is declining globally.

Whipsaw action on the Dow today rising to 27543
the mrkt turned South around midday slumping to the days low of 26891 on fears that covid-19 is spreading globally yet declining in China. Infections have risen to 57 in the US and 46 countries have reported infections.
With only one story in town stocks move disproportionately to vols traded acting on sentiment & the rumour mill of constant 24 hour chatter on Radio, TV & Social Media. Vols on the NYSE were well above the daily av of 276m hitting 339m traded at close.
A whole slew of companies have reported earnings doubts, Diageo says they could face £140-200m shortfall, HSBC may take a $400m hit on bad loans and Cathay Pacific have told 13,000 staff to take a 3wk unpaid leave, Microsoft have warned on earnings... and so it goes.

At 2.00pm the Dow was clinging to 27000 on a
mixed bag of risers, Pfizer, Apple & Wallgreens while Netflix ($377) jumped 5% on bullish broker reccomends of $400 a pop. Heading down Amex, Dow inc, Exxon & Chevron doing nothing for the crude price which slid to $47.98 despite a smaller than expected rise in crude stocks.
The Housing mrkt showed surprising strength last month as single house sales rose c.8% to a 13yr high a timely reminder that the US economy remains strong in the face of weak global growth.
At close:
DJ -124 (26958)
SP -12 (3116)
NS +15 (8981)
R2 -19 (1553)

Only one bright spot in Asia this morning the two SH stock indexes posting gains. TK, HK and SK all lower the Nikkei over 550 with other Pan Pacifics in the red. The SK Central Bank surprisingly kept rates u/c (1.25%).
Stocks remain transfixed to any virus news local or overseas with Europe seen as catching up, in particular Italy seeing a big jump in cases. There remain many unknowns about covid-19.
TK -551
HK -206
SH +17
SK -23
The nos:- Oil $ 52.05.
Gold $1651. Palm $679.
Vix 28. $1.293. €1.185.
PI 6978. FP 7712. FF -140
DF -404. MSCI(W) 540.
Morning all.

Forest loss this year.
* 804,998 (ha).
Soil erosion (land lost) this year.
* 1,083,751 (ha)
C02 emissions
* 5,591,092,200 (tons)
Desertification
1,857,528 (ha)
Toxic chemicals released this yr.
* 1,515,811 (tons).

Energy nos:-
*Oil pumped today 47,400 boe rising rapidly.
*Oil barrels left 1,516,372,320 decreasing rapidly.
* Days to end of oil 15814
(43 years +/- current consumption).
* natural gas left boe
1,097,428,237,400.
* Days to end of natural gas 57,759.
* Days to end of coal 148,928.

Were all going to die, the end is nigh, a plague has been sent to infest the earth for mans raping of the planets resources.

Well?...kinda what the UK gutter press would have us believe. Bad news, irresponsible salivating journalists ramping up the rhetoric of negativity the UK Health 500,000 deaths
worst case scenario when they know the total death toll is less than 3000 (2700/90%) of those in China) is headline grabbing news designed to panic readers.

Where are all these other 497,000 deaths going to occur? China, Europe the US? I think we should be told and given the death rate is c.1-2% how many infections would there be to have 500,000 deaths? PFour hundred mill easily that's more than the pop of the USA.

Of course its serious, very serious if it reaches pandemic proportions but 500,000 deaths? Heres a list of common causes of fatalities this year.

Deaths
* from cancer 1.3m
* children under 5 (1.2m)
* from smoking c.773,000.
* from alcohol c.387,000.
* from suicides c.165,000.
* from malaria 156,000.
* from seasonal flu 75,000

World deaths total c.9.1m
and communicable diseases total c.2m this year to date.

Crash or correction? Typically a crash is a sudden one off event that tanks mrkts 10% or more in a session that comes out of the blue like the '87 crash.
Corrections are part'n parcel of mrkt cycles and investors can see them coming. The two near 2000 point falls on the Dow this week were 3.5% & 3.1% nowhere near the accepted % definition of a crash.
Of course 10% in 1987 is a lot different to 10% now given the huge difference in mrkt value. I'd est a 2-3% fall now is the equivalent, so in '87 terms a crash but in 2021 I don't know.
The 1910 points decline on the Dow doesn't feel like a crash perhaps more an overdue correction blowing some excess froth off stretched valuations particularly among the techs.

I have not heard of panic selling which usually occurs when investors confidence in mrkts is lost and the herd rush for the exits. Some doomsters are predicting a 40-70% correction which would take the Dow back to c.8300 last seen back in 1998.
The virus will hamper mrkts re-gainng lost ground and may not see 30,000 on the Dow again but from all we have heard the US economy is strong, rates are low, employment at record levels and inflation under control. Is this sustainable and how this plays out in the months to come is the big question facing investors. Talk of an impending US recession is going the rounds and the 'fear' factor when investors give up the ghost is yet to happen.

China is slowly starting to get back to work so supply chains should start to catch up as long as other countries can contain the spread and keep businesses open we may muddle through.
London is off near 130 early doors as reported cases in Europe increase.
UK Health officials painting a 'worst case' scenario of 500,000 deaths isn't helping.
Any big increase in covid-19 infections/deaths in Europe and the US would be a huge cue for another big sell off.

Indonesia started using biodiesel with 30% palm content in late 2019.
In Jan consumption was c.35% higher than the average monthly consumption last year.

A Minister has warned that Indonesia may not have enough supply of cpo to go beyond B50 bio-content unless a moratorium on replanting is not lifted or estates replanting plans stall.
If Indonesia does not produce new feed stock for biofuel, 75% of its palm output will be used domestically within 5 years, currently 30%.

PTP a State owned energy Co has asked Parliament to cap prices for some cpo as the Co is investing heavilly in refineries to produce biofuel.
PTP needs a guarantee on the supply & price for feed stock as its building 3 refineries and wants a DMO (domestic mrkt obligation) to require a % of planters output to be sold at a capped price.

Covid-19 summary:-

Total cases 81,006
China 78,064 +406
Deaths 2765
China 2715 +52
Recover 30,167

Countries 42
SK 1146 (12 deaths)
DP 691 (4 deaths)
Italy 325 +2 (11 deaths)
Jap 161 (2 deaths)
Iran 95 (16 deaths)
Spore 91
HK 85 (2 deaths)
Thai 40 +3
Taiw 32 +1 (1 death)
Bahrain 26 +3
France 14 (1 death)
Phill 3 (1 death)
The above list contains only countries that have registered a death.

DJ -879 (27081) -3%
SP -98 (3128) -3%
NS -256 (8966) -3%
R2 -56 (1572) -3.5%
Covid-19 scare has wiped 1910 off the Dow since Sundays close and erasing the gains this year now down 5%. Similar story for the 500, techs & small caps. Stocks will remain under pressure to 'virus' headlines and worries on Co earnings into Q2.

A more measured response in Asia this morning after the big sell off in NY overnight. TK closed 156 down with HK, SK & SH posting small losses. Other Pan Pacifics followed the trend lower.
TK -156
HK -178
SH -2
SK -21
The nos:- Oil $54.82.
Gold $1647. Palm $670.
Vix 28. $1.298. € 1.194
PI 6955. FP 7817. FF-42
DF -107. MSCI(W) 543.
Morning all.

I suffered a share delisting and going private...one of that ****s
Woodfords wonder stocks. Trust me it did not end well for pis despite all the bull**** waffle from W that away from the day to day scrutiny of public mrkts the Co could grow and thrive.
Yea, bloody right it could. Despite c.£80m pumped in by investors over 20 years the Co could not raise 2/- at the final curtain.
The Co was laid low by the NHS preferring to adhere to practices last seen in the Middle Ages than a device that was leagues ahead of any competition in the blood gas analysis sphere.
Dont bank on any rescue from Father Christmas. Prepare yourself for the worst, cut losses and move on. I failed to do that thinking that an iis would pick up the stock and provide further funds to get the Co to commercialisation. Nah, never happened! To read the full history go to Sphere Medical an example of a great British start up let down by British business obsessed with investing in corner coffee shops and the like.

Accessing latest posts is almost impossible on a mob. I scroll down to open/close posts (why?) and get a Nov 18 post of boyos!
Forget it!... I'm waiting for lse to make it even more impenetrable
if possible before I venture back here. Good luck in finding this post....

Capital Group of companies have reduced holding by a small %.

You may have noticed Firestone Diamonds has filed for de-listing from AIM ( I held stock here moons ago).
Among the reasons listed were unable to repay/service debts, AIM costs, need to preserve cash, poor diamond sector, the illiquid share as 65% of the outstanding is owned by Bondholders and two minority holders (18%).
I went through similar with Sphere and was wiped out so I fear for pis caught up in this stock today.
...............Ring any bells?.............

Covid-19 summary.
Total
Cases
80,154
China
77659 +509
Deaths 2703
China 2663 (+7)

Recovered 27,704

Countries 37

SK 893 +60 (9 deaths)
DP 691 (4 deaths)
Italy 231 +2 (7 deaths)
Jap 160 +1 (1 death)
HK 81 (2 deaths)
Iran 61 (14 deaths)
Taiw 31 +1 (1 death)
France 12 (1 death)
Phill 3 (1 death)

The 'mayhem' headlines of covid-19 didnt help the bulls of stocks who were sent rushing for the exits yesterday, an almost orderly retreat.
However behind the headlines tech stocks and associated sectors are hugely overvalued say many mrkt commentators and are priced for a 20-30% correction.
Apple is considered the most over valued among the Techs falling c.$15 yesterday to $298. Apple sources 20% of its IPhone rev from China. The IT and Comms account for c.$10 trillion in mrkt cap.

All 11 of the S&P 500 sectors reported losses energy, oil and info tech hit the hardest with c.4% falls. The private sector data released by IHS Markit showed the economy grinding to a halt in Feb the services PMI reading at 49.6 the worst in 6 years and US Services sector companies reported the first drop in orders since 10/2009. This sector accounts for 75% of US GDP. The $64,000 question is will the impact of the virus on global slowdown of economic activity tip the US into recession?

The bulls will no doubt have counter arguments so if your out of the mrkt maybe that's the best place to be for the next few months. Practice some masterly inactivity.
Or if your brave you will be picking up some of the $bills now fetching 50c on the floor of Stock Exchanges. Mrkts have a propensity to bounce back from 1000 point falls, H1N1, SARS, MERS, EBOLA & various other flu epidemics pretty rapidly.
No reason to suppose this time will be any different.

Calmer in Asia this morning after the big falls on US mrkts. TK is off 700+ after Mondays day off but SK and S'pore post gains with HK little changed and SH down 41.
TK -758 (closed).
HK -11
SH -41
SK +23 (closed).

Overnight US stocks caught the bug with big falls on all major indexes as the spread in SK, Italy and Iran cause most concern as the WHO say countries should prepare for a possible pandemic.
The 1000+ drop on the Dow was the 3rd largest one day drop in history.
Dow futures see a 200 gain at open today.
DJ -1030 (27961)
SP -119 (3226)
NS -355 (9221)
R2 -50 (1628)

The nos:- Oil $56.59.
Gold $1653. Palm $680.
Vix 25. $ 1.293. €1.291.
PI 6933. FP 8067. FF+38
DF +230. MSCI(W) 556.
Morning all.

Here we are towards close the 100 down 258, the Dow off nearly 1000 at open. Cooler heads will no doubt be picking up oversold good quality stocks as oil falls ($55.65) and Gold jumps $100 in the last week.
It's all just part of the continuing cycle of the game (tbh it's so bloody predictable). If you can keep your head..... while others are dumping everything in sight you will do well, perhaps not today but surely if mrkts come off more which they surely will and you have the spare I'm sure good things will happen for longer term holders.

Cpo closed at $683 and looks headed to sub $650 where REA cannot make a coin in this or any other 'hemisphere'. At 142 the sp looks way overvalued given all the debt constraints, bad vibes surrounding the demon oil & current global turmoil. I see no compelling reason to hold and have sold my last few shares.

REA has proved a so-so
investment for me. I made a small turn. I like the sector (I worked in Malaya on rubber and palm oil estates in another lifetime). Unfortunately we have to face facts and REA just cannot make a profit which makes the Co uninvestible. Profits in 2021/2/3 doesn't do it for me. I want jam now.
I certainly dont trust the BMDE forecasts of cpo futures etc.., demand to return to prev levels and price increases. I dont trust the bulls of palm they are just front runners and talk their own book imo.
On balance I'd have to say my stay here was a bad call, goodness knows what possessed me to park my GTR here this long? Got to be my 'sucker' disposition I guess? Even I wake up now and then!

Good luck to the few who still hold, be prepared for a
a longer wait than you anticipated for those illusory profits (if ever). I doubt the stock in the real world is worth £50m, but wtfdik.
I realised a bit late that I was taking a hell of a lot on trust investing here.
The estate management have no idea how to make a profit, so your banking on cpo to get you out of the doo-doo and that's way too risky along with any Co that cannot set it's own selling prices makes for a lot of added risk.
You really need better odds than a 33/1 shot to invest your hard earned in REA. Do you think you can get it?

PS. Pending me investing elsewhere (if ever) I will cont to do the mrkt stuff and the virus details, if for no other reason than to give me an incentive to get out of my pit and face the rigours of a heavy lunchtime session.
Evening all.

Is this the start of the long overdue correction? Investors have been complacent to the warning signs coming out of China
and the likely impact on global trade. The ftse off 260 at days low and the Dow called 800 lower.

Might be a short term blip who knows but were in for a rough few days. REA 144 and cpo $689 both going South if the virus gets a hold in Europe despite the negligible death rates.
Oh well nothing like a little panic to get investors to run for the hills and dealers some decent volume. So far not herewith just 9600 sold.

The palm oil contract on the BMDE fell 0.5% to 2610 ringgit on higher production and falling demand dur to covid-19 continuing spread.

Palm prices are tracking weak soybean on the Chicago Board of Trade the ringgit being palms currency of trade and is at its weakest since 4/2019.
Current price $691 range ($689-$703).

On other news India had issued 70 licences to import 5 lakh tonnes of RPO from Bangladesh, Nepal & Indonesia.