Member Info for JohnLewis79

Said it would and it did tumbling 1000+ at open. Oh the shorters are in 7th heaven, make hay boys
while it lasts....

At least posts are in chronological order at long last!

With the mrkts determined to go lower and lower here's what happened in 1987.
The ftse had been on a tear up through late '86 early '87 rising over 40% when out of the blue on Oct,16th/17th the ftse fell 23% in 2 days and cont to fall through Nov to a low of 36% (c.900 points) below pre crash levels. Mrkts started to recover in late '89 but took nearly 2 years to retrace to pre crash levels.
The ftse is now 1000 (13%) off last years close which given the huge diff in mrkt values is probably worse than the '87 crash.
Mrkts always recover, well they have up to now so there is no reason to expect anything different this time. So when will the US lead the recovery? When is enuffs enuff?

World GDP could likely sustain a 1-2% drop in the short term but the Fed and other Central Banks have limited resources to counter a 30% crash... the Dow below 20,000 for instance.
That might be alarmist but given the ftse has tanked nearly 900 this week anything could happen.

Over the wk/end wiser heads might prevail and see all those $bills selling for 10c and start buying. You know it will happen I know it will, just a question of when.
Its not the timing you should worry about but the time in and at this level the risk/reward looks good if your prepared to be patient. Next week could be crucial as to the next direction. I think it could go low 6100 that's a
20% fall from high and in crash territory.

On Monday global mrkts will follow the Far East who hopefully will see green shoots sprouting though with Mr Jones called another 600 lower and determined to test 23500 who knows? I sure don't.

True dat Tartine! A total of 11.6p was paid (from memory) gives a stonking yield of 7.7%
Jeez even at 300p yields over 4%.
Its def bogof time guys'n gals.

With cpo off another $19.($649) energy assets are starting to look very attractive. I think cpo is oversold and due a bounce as its main mrkt is getting on top of the virus and India has reported just 3 infections in a pop of 1.4bn.
Of course supply routes have been out of action but these will reopen pretty quickly once things return to normal hopefully by H/Y.
I do not expect to see a drop off in demand and by Q4 palm exports should have made up any shortfalls due to covid-19.

I wont forecast any nos for REA shares other than we wont see 200 anytime soon. However given my batting average is poor in forecasting anything (I have given up swinging at every pitch). I have an order waiting to be filled.

At least the ftse is off 230 lows and Dow futures getting some mojo back only 250 lower at open.

To see a whole bunch of companies issuing statements on how covid-19 is effecting company earnings sales etc..,
Companies in the US are already doing so.

A word of caution. A precise est of mortality rates is impossible to calculate at present
(Swiss Medical Wkly)

Death rates.
Nationwide 2.1%
Wuhan 4.9%
Hubei 3.1%
Others.0.16%
WHO est 2.0%

*Study providing a tentative mortality rate 3%
* death rate among patients admitted to hospital 15%.

Comparison with other viruses.
Ebola 40%
Mers 34%
SARS 9.6%
Swine 0.02%

Death rate by age:
80+ 15%
70-79 (8%)
60-69 (4%)
50-59 (1%)
40-49 (0.4%)
30-39 (0.2%)
20-29 (0.2%)
10-19 (0.2%)

Death rate by sex
M (2.8%)
F (1.7%)

Seasonal flu deaths this ytd 77,579 of the worlds pop of 7.767bn.
Morning all

Since REA hit 186 (8/1) the sp has fallen 34% while over the same period cpo has fallen $73
(9%). Of course the above were pre the virus scare which has tanked London and global mrkts.
Heres the deal on London indices (ytd).

Ftse down 746 (9.9%)
All down 408 (9.7%)
250 down 2100 (9.6%)
S/C down 401 (6.7%)
Aim down 71 (7.4%)

Remember last year nos?

Ftse up 12%
All up 14%
250 up 26%
S/C up 15%
Aim up 12%
Ftse is given the bums rush first thing called near 250+ lower.

Flu deaths this year 77506

Covid-19
Total cases 83381
China 78832
Deaths 2858
China 2788

Recovered 36586
Active 43937
Mild 35838
Ser 8099

Countries 56

SK 2022 +256 (13 deaths)
DP 705 (4 deaths)
Italy 655 (17 deaths)
Iran 214 (26 deaths)
Jap 214 (4 deaths)
HK 92 (2 deaths)
France 38 (2 deaths)
Taiw 32 (1 death)
Phill 3 (1 death)
The above list contains countries who have had at least 1 fatality. So excluding the DP cruise liner that's 9 out of 56 or 16% have suffered a death of which 97% occurred in China.
Morning all.

Asia duly followed Mr Jones downwards the Nikkei now in 'correction'
territory slumping 854 before lunch. Other Pan Pacifics are down 2%-4%.
The PM said the Govt would take all measures to
prevent economic damage. Schools in Japan are closed for the next month, theme parks and all public events closed or cancelled.
Trade and industry threatened by mass quarantines and factory shutdowns must be avoided at all costs.
Nobody knows how long this epidemic will last some think a year others it will be over by Q3.
TK -940
HK -752
SH -91
SK -66
The nos:- Oil $50.27.
Gold $1642. Palm $657.
Vix 39. $1.288. €1.171.
PI 6807. FP 7490. FF -220
DF -506. MSCI(W) 522.

Is this the last leg of the 10yr rise in stock prices the virus acting as a proxy to hammer the final nail in the old bull?
The Dow thinks so, it did what it said it would do and duly tanked 961 by late morning taking the 30 & 500 into correction territory (10% off recent highs and the 500 breaching its 200DMA (3045) a signal triggering chart sellers.
Buyers were few preferring to keep their heads below the parapet for fear of being blown away. Only the very brave or foolhardy were opening new positions in these virus obsessed mrkts and Companies warning on Q2 earnings & sales being hit by the supply chain blockages in China added to the gloom. Goldman Sachs says US earnings could be minimal in Q2 and Trumps re-election could be in jeopardy sending the economy into recession. Further spooking mrkts was news that California was monitoring over 8000 people for infections.

Stocks across sectors were being sold off, Msoft (-12%), Apple (-6%), Dow inc (-6%), Intel (-6%) & Boeing (-3%) led the fallers only 1 big board stock ticking up was 3M.
Vols were again well above normal daily averages some 367m today, 100m more than usual. The mrkt has had several rallies which were quickly sold into by traders.
This is the 6th day of falling mrkts which is est to have wiped off $2.8tn in value. As the old adage says investors climb a wall of worry but take the escalator back down.

The Dow finally ended a miserable day with another 1000+ point fall taking the 30 to 25766 just above the days low (25752) as 2 months of gains have been wiped out in 2 days.
Ytd the 30 & R2 are down 10%, techs 5% and the 500 off 8%. Worth noting that the Dow rose 22% last year the 500 (29%) and the techs (35%). A 20% slump (one def of a crash) on the Dow would take the 30 back to 23650 last seen in Jan 2018. Given the Dow has had 2x1000+ falls that could happen next week!

DJ -1191 (25766)
SP - 138 (2979)
NS -414 (8566)
R2 -55 (1495)

PepsiCo in partnership with RAN (Rainforest action group) and International Labour Rights Forum in bid to guard against deforestation and Labour rights abuses.
Pepsi has strengthened its palm oil policy to eliminate deforestation, peatland and human rights abuses from all parts of its supply chain.
Pepsi will not source palm oil from any supplier directly or indirectly involved in deforestation over the past 4 years. This is a first from an international major food and drinks group.

Total mrkt cap of London palm stocks is c.£680m of which Mpe accounts for 55%, Anglo 33% & Rea 9%.

Returns to shareholders are minuscule given the mrkt caps but I guess it's the EV planted(ha) that counts most and in REAs case its £67m (154p) pre the virus of course.
How much will be written down/ lost is another matter. It could be as much as 10%-20% which may or may not be made up by B30.

Good post whitehat you could have made that the 4Rs..... reading, riting, rithmatic & Rea...heh heh heh! The sp is down c.20% ytd though I got out with a profit and intend to stay in cash until either the plague kills us all or mankind survives. At 163 its discounting an awful lot of bad news in the short term.
I'm wary of o....lies atm, hell you could say that of every sector, so
will try and practice what I preach..... a period of masterly inactivity.

Half way through wk 9 UK palm stocks have performed worse than the Malaysian Plantation Index (-10%) ytd and worse than the UK FP Index (-8%) ytd. As a one product sector dependent on the cpo price it's hardly surprising if your core product falls in price.

Heres the ytd nos:-

Anglo -32 (-5%)
Dkl -1 (-27%)
Epa -0.36 (-48%)
Mpe -30 (-4%)
Rea -32 (-19%)
Cpo -$125 (-16%)

As ever the prices are best guessed to c.95% correct you factor in the diff if any.

The WHO says 80% of people only experience mild symptoms and recover quite quickly. Investors disagree all are outrightly pessimistic until tomorrow of course...

HK up, SH up... ftse casino down 130, about right as we panic about zero deaths / 13 infections in this country and tank good companies valuations which after all is the raison d'etre of the lse, anything to make a quick buck.....

Deaths caused by water related diseases this year.
.....................132,127.......................

Seasonal flu deaths this year
......................76202.....................

USA 60 cases/0 deaths.