Member Info for JohnLewis79

Further to hasibas post of 1/3/20 and playing the long game here's how mrkts reacted to previous flu/viruses.

SARS (2007) +14% in 6m +21% in year.
Avian flu (2006) +12% in 6, +18% in year.
Swine (2009) +19% in 6,
+ 36% in year.
Mers (2013) +11% in 6, +18% in year.
Zika (2016) +12% in 6, +17% in year.

Nothing to say it will be any different this time. Lots of companies have been trashed to ridiculous levels. If you have some spare now is as good a any time to buy.
WB is!!

Further to hasibas post of 1/3/20 and playing the long game here's how mrkts reacted to previous flu/viruses.

SARS (2007) +14% in 6m +21% in year.
Avian flu (2006) +12% in 6, +18% in year.
Swine (2009) +19% in 6,
+ 36% in year.
Mers (2013) +11% in 6, +18% in year.
Zika (2016) +12% in 6, +17% in year

Nothing to say it will be any different this time. Lots of companies have been trashed to ridiculous levels, G for one. If you have some spare now is as good a time to buy as any I have seen.
WB is!!

Malaysias new PM sworn in last week seeks to mend ties with India making it a priority of the new Govt.
The recent spat over Kashmir and the Muslim pop has cratered Jan palm oil shipments by c.85% to 47kt the lowest since 2011.
A spokesperson for India said New Delhi would work with the new administration to improve relations and palm trade as long as Malaysia keeps out of India's internal affairs.
Expect exports to ramp up shortly. Indonesia has been filling the gap while Malaysia sought other mrkts.

Palm oil has been a bust this year posting its steepest weekly fall (11%) since the 2008 financial crisis.
Some of the bigest producers said worse was to come. Sime Derby said demand from China had virtually 'dried up' and Golden Agri Resources said sales could fall 20% due to weaker demand from the Food Sector.
PO futures are 11% off and c.24% down ytd, now firmly in 'bear' territory & futures for May delivery (2319 ringgit).

Covid-19
Total cases 89081
China 80026 +202
Deaths 3057
China 2912 (+42 new)

Recovered 45148

Active
40876
Mild 33501
Ser 7375
.
Countries 68

Countries listed below have recorded at least 1 fatality.
SK 4212 +476 (26 deaths) + 5 new
Italy 1701 (41)
Iran 978 (54)
DP 705 (7)
Jap 256 (6)
Fra 130 (2)
HK 100 (2)
USA 87 +12 (2 )+1 new.
Thai 42 (1)
Taiw 40 (1)
Aus 29 (1)
San Marino 8 (1)
Phill 3 (1)

Summary
Total cases 89081
New infections 693
Total deaths 3057
New deaths 48
Morning all.

Covid-19
Total cases 89081
China 80026 +202
Deaths 3057
China 2912 (+42 new)

Recovered 45148

Active
40876
Mild 33501
Ser 7375

Countries 68

Countries listed below have recorded at least 1 fatality.
SK 4212 +476 (26 deaths) + 5 new
Italy 1701 (41)
Iran 978 (54)
DP 705 (7)
Jap 256 (6)
Fra 130 (2)
HK 100 (2)
USA 87 +12 (2 )+1 new.
Thai 42 (1)
Taiw 40 (1)
Aus 29 (1)
San Marino 8 (1)
Phill 3 (1)

Summary
Total cases 89081
New infections 693
Total deaths 3057
New deaths 48
Morning all.

Much better this morning in Asia a relief rally of sorts is under way however measured against the falls of last week the bounce is small but welcome. Investors continue to be very wary of getting ahead of any virus set'backs.

Stocks opened with falls the Nikkei off 450 has pulled back though off days high of +310 with Shanghai's main exchange the mornings runaway winner up 3% (+85) with the smaller Shenzen up 3.5% at lunch, as factories start to reopen and workers gradually return to work. However there were another 42 new fatalities on the mainland. SK with another near 500 infections and 1 new death added to the 22 fatalities has turned up 20 points near days close having been 51 lower at open.
Central Banks have pledged to ensure liquidity to mrkts and are ready to cut rates for a short term fix. Other Pan Pacifics are better but Aus (-1%) & Taiwan (-1%) continue to fall. London and NY are called 100+ better this morning.
Latest:
TK +180
HK +200
SH +85
SK +17
The nos:- Oil $51.20.
Gold $1601. Palm $657.
Vix 40. $ 1.283. € 1.161.
PI 6758 (-75). MSC1(W) 513. FF +136. DF +140.
Morning all.

Hi Dodger make you right there!!
Obviously the wrong call by me but Wol away only 4/13 wins swayed it for me...and T leading twice...well I guess they didnt deserve anything... a strange week with Leicester and Lpool getting beat, both bankers all 43 getting blown out by wk 2 leaving just me.....grrrrrr! Roll over next week....

Just got done for £860 those useless Tottenham t*****s losing at home to Wolves! Jeez I cant win a bloody Mars Bar atm...

As at March 1st, 03.30 GMT

Total cases 86992.
China 79826 +575
Deaths 2979
China 2870 +35

Seasonal flu deaths this year (80,222)

Active 41679
Mild 3411
Ser 7568

Countries 64

SK 3526 +376 (17 deaths)
Italy 1128 (29)
DP 705 (6)
Iran 593 (43)
Jap 241 (6)
France 100 (2)
HK 95 (2)
USA 69 +1 (1)
Aus 25 (1) (1new)
Phill 3 (1)
The above are only countries that have registered (1) or more deaths.
Of the 376 new cases in Asia, 333 (89%) are in Daegu S.K. Of the 35 new deaths (34) are in Hubei Province China.
Every year an est 290-650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal flu influenza (flu) viruses. This fig corresponds to 795-1781 deaths per day due to seasonal flu.
(Source CDC & WHO)

As at March 1st, 03.30 GMT

Total cases 86992.
China 79826 +575
Deaths 2979
China 2870 +35

Seasonal flu deaths this year (80,222)

Active 41679
Mild 3411
Ser 7568

Countries 64

SK 3526 +376 (17 deaths)
Italy 1128 (29)
DP 705 (6)
Iran 593 (43)
Jap 241 (6)
France 100 (2)
HK 95 (2)
USA 69 +1 (1)
Aus 25 (1) (1new)
Phill 3 (1)
The above are only countries that have registered (1) or more deaths.
Of the 376 new cases in Asia, 333 (89%) are in Daegu S.K. Of the 35 new deaths (34) are in Hubei Province China.
Every year an est 290-650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal flu influenza (flu) viruses. This fig corresponds to 795-1781 deaths per day due to seasonal flu.
(Source CDC & WHO)

Jack Salad makes some pertinent points regarding the casino mrkts and I wholly concur. I might add pis are not helped by inefficient jobsworths management in many companies and I ain't even mentioned the dodgy ones...aahemm!! I know it's our job to check but do we?
At least some of us know how to play the game. I try but usually fail and that's to snatch a profit before the mrkt snatches it from you.....for starters!

Never believe the incessant unsolicited emails from wise guy boiler room scammers punting their latest no hope blue sky mining stock at 0.65p (Harvard Securities) anyone? The master front runners of the '80s. I have in the past fallen prey to these fly'by nights...on one occasion anyway....aero inventory it was which bloodied my nose!

Making money in these rigged mrkts is nigh on impossible unless your the best stock picker the world has ever seen or just bloody downright jammy! As if the average pis doesn't face enough hurdles some far off virus blows in and wipes out his gains, if any, in a few days. Nah... the odds are insurmountable ask any G man, er... c'ept mayor bunks of course and even he might be getting twitchy at 147!
Have a nice day all and heres to a better start to wk10.

Lots of comparisons being made with 2008 so I thought I'd have a look at what all the fuss was about!
Firstly we had the *Northern Rock Bank run, later nationalised. *Other Bank/Building Soc hit investors for money via rights issues (HFX & Brad and Bing), £4bn & £300m respectively.
*Crude Oil hit $147
*Lehman goes broke.
*Madoff in $50bn fraud scandal.
*BOA buys Merrill Lynch.
*AIG Insurance gets $20bn
lifeline from the Fed.
*Chancellor cuts vat and borrows £118bn.
* UK rates slashed to 2%
*HBOS, T/Wimpey, RBS, Punch, Inchcape, Yell & Enterprise removed from ftse 100.
* Cattles, Punch Taverns & Inchcape joined the 90% down the pan club.

Meanwhile the ftse was being pummeled losing 31% the worst 12 month run since 1984 debut closing at 4434, the All down 33% at 2209.
The Dow tanked 34%, Nsdq off 40% the S&P lost 38%. No better in Asia the Nikkei down 42%, HK off 48% & SH 65%.

We might think 2020 is bad but nothing compares to 2008! You guessed it in 2009 the ftse ended 22% better and DJI gained 19%. So there's still hope.
Just as a matter of interest to match 2008 the ftse would have to fall 2338 points taking the index to 5204 some 1377 lower than present now that is crash territory.

Lots of comparisons being made with 2008 so I thought I'd have a look at what all the fuss was about!
Firstly we had the *Northern Rock Bank run, later nationalised. *Other Bank/Building Soc hit investors for money via rights issues (HFX & Brad and Bing), £4bn & £300m respectively.
*Crude Oil hit $147 (I had to 2x check that!
*Lehman goes broke.
*Madoff in $50bn fraud scandal.
*BOA buys Merrill Lynch.
*AIG Insurance gets $20bn
lifeline from the Fed.
*Chancellor cuts vat and borrows £118bn.
* UK rates slashed to 2%
*HBOS, T/Wimpey, RBS, Punch, Inchcape, Yell & Enterprise removed from ftse 100.
* Cattles, Punch Taverns & Inchcape joined the 90% down the pan club.

Meanwhile the ftse was being pummeled losing 31% the worst 12 month run since 1984 debut closing at 4434, the All down 33% at 2209.
The Dow tanked 34%, Nsdq off 40% the S&P lost 38%. No better in Asia the Nikkei down 42%, HK off 48% & SH 65%.

We might think 2020 is bad but nothing compares to 2008! You guessed it in 2009 the ftse ended 22% better and DJI gained 19%. So there's still hope.

An end to a miserable week for mrkts and investors though 491 down close on the 30 was a lot better than 1085 down at one time. Near 3 x1000 points dropped would have set a record I'm sure. As you will note all the damage was done this week. You all know the reasons so heres the nos.
Wk 9
DJ -3583 (12%)
SP -424 (12.5%)
NS -1010 (10.5%)
R2 - 203 (12%)
Ytd
DJ -3129 (11%)
SP - 277 (9%)
NS -400 (5%)
R2 - 192 (12%)

A similar story in London where £270bn was wiped off the blue chip and 350, the bigest drop since 2008. The nos.
Wk 9
Ftse -823 (11%)
All -459 (11%)
250 -2449 (11%)
S/C - 611 (10%)
Aim -116 (12%)
Ytd
Ftse -961 (13%)
All -522 (9%)
250 -2552 (12%)
S/C -565 (9%)
Aim -101 (10.5%)

Asia
Wk9
TK -2244 (10%)
HK -1187 (4%)
SH -160 (5%)
SK -176 (8%)
Ytd
TK -2514 (11%)
HK -2060 (7%)
SH -170 (6%)
SK -191 (9%)

Ytd
Oil - $16 (24%)
Gold +$63 (4%)
Palm -$155 (19%)

REA -44 (26%)
MPE -52 (7%)
ANG -52 (9%)
DKL -1 (29%)
EPA -0.36 (48%)
Morning all.

Reports out of China say container ships are unable to unload due to blockages in the ports as ships queue up awaiting unloading. This is causing major supply chain headaches for international companies like Jaguar Land Rover who are having to air-freight components at extra cost to keep the production lines operating.

SeaIntelligence a shipping consulting bureau estimate that as of last week 300,000 containers had failed to leave China ports and container traffic had collapsed by 50%. Perishable goods are rotting in containers, just one side effect of this bloody virus. No wonder travel, retail, airlines & shipping are being slammed by investors as the WHO are about to declare a world pandemic.

Vix the fear index is a tool to bet on the S&P 500 index via put and call options. It is essentially the fear and greed index of investors views on a daily basis.
Too much fear drives stocks down and Vix up, while greed raises prices beyond what they are worth and Vix goes down.

As of today's mrkt action Vix has risen over 240% to 47 ytd as stocks tank on the 500. Just one week ago the Vix was 18!
It's a quick and simple measure to gauge what investors think will happen on the 500 and whether they are buying or selling the mrkt. Always watch the Vix index!

You wouldn't have thought it among the mayhem of panicky mrkts that cpo would still average above $700 ytd, would ya?
No!..... Nor would I until I checked the figs and heh ho ytd av is $725. I'll check it later.......

......Jeez there is hope for us after all ($725 looks kosher) not REA mind, who cannot make a turn even at this elevated level... just kidding, as was Janice from a hit 1963 TV show who memorably said..."o'ill give it foive" as long as your not invested in that palm oil thingy, heh heh heh!

Have a good wk/end all and drown your sorrows!

I'm in front of you Dodger having had a 'bolly'good lunch session with a few distressed 'crap' stock investors bemoaning their fate. It's another day next week as I told all and sundry, so chill all will come out in the wash if your lucky to still be standing.

While global mrkts are on a kamikaze mission to the underwold (where the dead investors lie) trashing everything in sight, take comfort that us poor buggers invested in the detritus, that's code for s**t stocks do not seem to be faring too badly.
Now I grant you that's circumstance but who wouldn't take it just before the weekend close?

With 30 mins to go nothing much will change.
The mrkts have made their minds up, its everyman for himself and tomorrows another day and if your still invested expect more of the same....unless you know better....