Member Info for JohnLewis79

Heres the last 15 days of the DJI & Ftse 100 daily moves:-
DJI/Ftse100
-1031/-248
-879/-139
-124/+24
-1191/-246
-491/-216
+1294/+74
-786/+63
+1173/+97
-970/-110
-256/-242
-2014/-497
+1167/-5
-1465/-84
-2352/-639
+1985/+129

Shows how volatile these virus infected mrkts have become and the best place to be is on the sidelines. Over the above 15 sessions as below.

DJI down 5806 (20%)
Ftse down 2038 (28%)

REA down 46 (30%)
CPO down 91 (13%)
Gold down (44%)
Morning all.

Heres the last 15 days of the DJI & Ftse 100 daily moves:-
DJI/Ftse100
-1031/-248
-879/-139
-124/+24
-1191/-246
-491/-216
+1294/+74
-786/+63
+1173/+97
-970/-110
-256/-242
-2014/-497
+1167/-5
-1465/-84
-2352/-639
+1985/+129

Shows how volatile these virus infected mrkts have become and the best place to be is on the sidelines. Total 15 session fallout as below.

DJI down 5806 (20%)
Ftse down 2038 (28%)

G down 94 (53%)
Oil down (42%)

Gold down (44%)
Morning all.

Covid-19
Total cases 145,681
China 80,824 +11
Total deaths 5436
China 3189 +13

Countries 145
(Selected)
Italy 17,660 (deaths 1,226)
Iran 11,364 (514)
USA 2,329 +82 (50)
UK 798 (11)

Summary:
Total cases 145,681
New cases 209
Total deaths 5,436
New deaths 20
Recovered 72,532 (50%)

SF/deaths 97,500

Its a fact of stock mrkt life that stocks are worth less money when they make less money. That's what's happening now and when you factor Bonds & Gold acting similarly you know your in trouble.
Some say were not in a bear mrkt, territory yes but mrkt not yet at least I dont think so. I have to be convinced of people not wanting to own anything at all so scared are they of risk & safe haven assets they hoard cash at the expense of everything else. They have thrown in the towel, been run out of town into the arms of Building Societies.

That is a shame as we have seen 20% falls on the Dow in 1987, 2001 and 2007 only to see strong rebounds of 10%-14% over the next few months. Those who panicked and sold out, lost out! The mrkt is a skid pan ready to send weak holders crashing down and when mrkt act on the 'viral' not fundamental or technical you have to either stick it out or sell and hope to buy back lower down and unless your timing is spot on you could trade your way to further losses.

Bonds are no longer giving you a return, no longer providing a retirement income in fact negative returns are on offer. Remember when the benchmark 10yt t/note was 3.9%? No longer now c.0.8%g is what you get. So as an investor when the facts change so should you. The retail mrkt looks horrific if footfall is your thing but a lot of money could be spent on the 'online' airwaves. We wont see the nos just yet but expect US & UK GDP to take a hit in Qs 1-2-3.

We have been here before and those who held their nerve did exceedingly well.
I believe we could be nearing a turning point maybe not a resumption of the 11 yr bull but at least in escaping the clutches of the bears. On average bear mrkts last 12-16 months or have done since WW2 so unless this time is different a period of stagnating boring mrkts might be the best we can hope for where making money is very difficult but so is losing as well.

So what could trip up any mrkt rally if we have one? The Govt for one have acted too slowly doing little or nothing during Feb and ignoring China efforts.
Countries are adopting different methods in tackling covid-19, that's not helpful. UK infections are going parabolic & might hit 10,000 by end March with 150 deaths according to one think tank. That could paralyse mrkts and so a £30bn Govt blank coronavirus cheque will be used to inflate a teetering economy as a last ditch effort to keep businesses viable, relaxing vat and rates and keeping the High St functioning in the face of a scared populace who see increasing infections as a disaster waiting to happen.

Some form of exclusion or lockdown cannot be far away however unpalatable. We must keep calm and carry on and it would help if the Media, fake or otherwise desisted from the daily Armageddon headlines. The next 4 wks will be crucial for all of us. Have a virus free wk/end if poss.
Evening all.

Its a fact of stock mrkt life that stocks are worth less money when they make less money. That's what's happening now and when you factor Bonds & Gold acting similarly you know your in trouble.
Some say were not in a bear mrkt, territory yes but mrkt not yet at least I dont think so. I have to be convinced of people not wanting to own anything at all so scared are they of risk & safe haven assets they hoard cash at the expense of everything else. They have thrown in the towel, been run out of town into the arms of Building Societies.

That is a shame as we have seen 20% falls on the Dow in 1987, 2001 and 2007 only to see strong rebounds of 10%-14% over the next few months. Those who panicked and sold out, lost out! The mrkt is a skid pan ready to send weak holders crashing down and when mrkt act on the 'viral' not fundamental or technical you have to either stick it out or sell and hope to buy back lower down and unless your timing is spot on you could trade your way to further losses.

Bonds are no longer giving you a return, no longer providing a retirement income in fact negative returns are on offer. Remember when the benchmark 10yt t/note was 3.9%? No longer now c.0.8%g is what you get. So as an investor when the facts change so should you. The retail mrkt looks horrific if footfall is your thing but a lot of money could be spent on the 'online' airwaves. We wont see the nos just yet but expect US & UK GDP to take a hit in Qs 1-2-3.

We have been here before and those who held their nerve did exceedingly well. I believe we could be nearing a turning point maybe not a resumption of the 11 yr bull but at least in escaping the clutches of the bears. On average bear mrkts last 12-16 months or have done since WW2 so unless this time is different a period of stagnating boring mrkts might be the best we can hope for where making money is very difficult but so is losing money as well.

So what could trip up any mrkt rally if we have one? The Govt for one have acted too slowly doing little or nothing during Feb and ignoring China efforts. Countries are adopting different methods in tackling covid-19, that's not helpful. UK infections are going parabolic & might hit 10,000 by end March with 150 deaths according to one think tank. That could paralyse mrkts and so a £30bn Govt blank 'coronavirus' cheque will be used to inflate a teetering economy as a last ditch effort to keep businesses viable, relaxing vat and rates and keeping the High St functioning in the face of a scared populace who see increasing infections as a disaster waiting to happen.

Some form of exclusion or lockdown cannot be far away however unpalatable. We must keep calm and carry on and it would help if the Media, fake or otherwise desisted from the daily Armageddon headlines. The next 4 wks will be crucial for all of us. Have a virus free wk/end if poss.
Evening all.

At wk 11 close the price gained $17 to $619 and ytd averages $710.55.
REA fell 17 to 106 on 28684 volume all but 5000 were sells. Ytd REA is down 60 (36%) along with other London palms. The All Share has fallen 29% since 2019 close and is in bear territory but perhaps not yet a bear mrkt.

Jump on the Dow called as Apple announce they are openning all their stores in China. Be good for every investors nerves if the mrkts can end the week on a positive note. The non stop gloom on the radio and TV is minding me to self isolate for the next 14 days.
Give it a rest for Chrissssakes!!

Reopens all their shops in China bullish for the Dow this afternoon.

My Broker on the downtown Mogadishu Exchange will quite happily allow you to short G ..... No MIFID ****** and no questions asked. Payment is tricky as FX is in short supply.

The other one to remember is...
'Let the trend be your friend until you see the bend'......

Dow called 1000+ up at open kinda good it's a Friday but as we know it's back down next week
unless covid-19 news is positive.
I have had to stop listening to the radio and TV as its non stop virus
woes that thousands are going to be infected and were pretty much doomed. I think I'll self isolate myself for 14 days. I have enuff loo rolls and alcohol to last me so should be fine.

Wk 11 the KLPL index closed 373 down at 5848, some 24% down ytd and 19% on a 52 wk basis.

Pretty much mirrors the fall in cpo c.22% down ytd. The index gained c.12% in 2019 not keeping pace with cpo which rose c.43% thanks to a H2 surge in prices much of which has been creamed off thanks to covid-19 and knock on effects.

A broker commented on the radio (LBC) that physical sells by pis were nothing out of the ordinary and that the (bloody my words) machines were responsible for the havoc! Too late to do anything about them now. I blame Big Bang.

Far East close:
TK -1129 (6%) slumped 750 in last 90 mins.
HK -276 (1%)
SH -36 (1%)
SK -63 (3%)

"Rotten in Denmark" said the guard to Horatio. A very good analogy of the corrupt London mrkts destroying every stock in sight the good, bad & Genel. It applies to the political class as well the jobsworths angling for a month off due to the virus.

Open at £66.25 (6421 traded yesterday). Pref capital (£85,000,000) 9% cum pref £1 each. Issued £72,000,000.

Your honour Mr Mayor...it's strictly a one-off as I was awake all night so, given the chaos of global mrkts which will right themselves if the past is anything to go by and as long as 'orange face' keeps his trap shut..... thought I'd pen a mrkt report of sorts.
Update on Cheltenham
Day 2
1 loser, 1 place
Day 3
2 losers, 2 places
To date
Still up... just.

Covid-19.

Total cases 134,804
China 80,814 +21
Total deaths 4984
China 3177 +8

Countries 127.
Selected
Italy 15113. (1016 deaths)
US 1762 +65 (41 deaths)
UK 590 (10 deaths)

Summary:
Total cases 134,804
New cases 248
Total deaths 4974
New deaths 10
Recovered 70,394

Seasonal flu deaths this yr
96,197.

Overnight US mrkts tanked again the Dow down 10% to 21200 just above the 21154 low. The 500, Nsdq & small caps fell similarly and are all in 'bear' territory. Everything was for sale, Gold fell $52 the 10yr t/note 0.80%, Bonds Silver etc.., as the mrkt headed towards its worst ever weekly fall since the 2008 financial crisis (-18%).
At below 21210 the Dow will set a new 1 week record drop. The great fear is the US economy will seize up as the population go on a wholesale spending strike and tip the US into recession, worried that the US is well behind the curve in combatting the virus. Gatherings, sports events, Broadway, Hollywood, Schools, Universities and Film Festivals are being postponed if not cancelled. The dominoes are falling everywhere shutting down travel, holidays, retail footfall down 60% and confining people to their homes such is the fear of catching the virus. It has truly hit Main St parts of NY are like a ghost town.

Dow futures point to a bounce (+500) today the ftse (200+). What's urgently needed is a vaccine which would rocket the Dow over 3000 in a day but probably too late now. Pending that and above all, the US must continue to work and be open for business.

Look how China has recovered since late Dec with just 21 new infections. Meanwhile in Asia mrkts followed the US lead. The Nikkei down 1556 (9%) at worst is bouncing back now 1200 above session low, HK off 1405 (6%) now 1400 above low (1% down) and China now recovering fell 3% at open now 0.8% lower as daily deaths hit a low of just 8.

Ytd SH is down 5% contrast that with the 26% crash on the Dow, 31% on the ftse. The Western economies will get their acts together for surely if China can do it?....

The nos:- Oil $33.78.
Gold $1576. Palm $623.
Vix 75. $1.254. €1.119.
FF+220. DF+570. MSCI(W) 428.
Morning all.

Overnight US mrkts tanked again the Dow down 10% to 21200 just above the 21154 low. The 500, Nsdq & small caps fell similarly and are all in 'bear' territory. Everything was for sale, Gold fell $52 the 10yr t/note 0.80%, Bonds Silver etc.., as the mrkt headed towards its worst ever weekly fall since the 2008 financial crisis (-18%).
At below 21210 the Dow will set a new 1 week record drop. The great fear is the US economy will seize up as the population go on a wholesale spending strike and tip the US into recession, worried that the US is well behind the curve in combatting the virus. Gatherings, sports events, Broadway, Hollywood, Schools, Universities and Film Festivals are being postponed if not cancelled. The dominoes are falling everywhere shutting down travel, holidays, retail footfall down 60% and confining people to their homes such is the fear of catching the virus. It has truly hit Main St parts of NY are like a ghost town.

Dow futures point to a bounce (+500) today the ftse (200+). What's urgently needed is a vaccine which would rocket the Dow over 3000 in a day but probably too late now. Pending that and above all, the US must continue to work and be open for business.

Look how China has recovered since late Dec with just 21 new infections. Meanwhile in Asia mrkts followed the US lead. The Nikkei down 1556 (9%) at worst is bouncing back now 1200 above session low, HK off 1405 (6%) now 1400 above low (1% down) and China now recovering fell 3% at open now 0.8% lower as daily deaths hit a low of just 8.
Ytd SH is down 5% contrast that with the 26% crash on the Dow, 31% on the ftse. The Western economies will get their acts together for surely if China can do it?....

The nos:- Oil $33.78.
Gold $1576. Palm $623.
Vix 75. $1.254. €1.119.
FF+220. DF+570. MSCI(W) 428.
Morning all.