Virus..impacts etc...,15 Mar 2020 07:00
As we know mrkts move too fast for us to make accurate predictions as to what happens next. Past crashes are of no help, the backgrounds, durations and days to recovery were all very different. Suffice to say from the '29 crash to the 'one before this' recovery took on average 19 months. The longest the '07-'09 at 48 months.
The real fear is will this crash tip the world into recession? Two Qs of negative growth are deemed a recession and given what's happening in the US & Europe it's long odds on were headed that way. Even China which looks like recovering will have a lot of catching up to do and will face their major export mrkts gummed up by lockdowns, noone spending and people staying away from work.
They say 1 in 4 people in the UK have no savings so a drastic change of lifestyle will have to happen particularly if lenders see the 'virus' risk as too great. The damage on a worst case basis is unimaginable if shops, restaurants, take-aways and places of entertainment are closed and the High St becomes a ghost town as people stay away for fear of catching something. Is it happening already?
I think Q1-3 will show little to no growth and by Q4 we should be on the way back which would be quicker than the 19 month recovery average but economies are stronger than '08-'09, rates practically zero and employment buoyant so its highly possible we could turn the corner in under 12 months.
China has taken 4 months to see the virus past its peak (figs on trust) and as of today only 16 new deaths reported globally though new infections (198) cont to rise to a total of 156,807 so one would expect fatalities to increase among the elderly. We may take longer with our it'll be alright on the night attitude to covid-19, currently 1140 infections and 21 deaths.
What worries me as much as anything is were going to talk ourselves into a recession helped by an irresponsible media and a Govt behind the 8 ball. If were all stuck at home not spending imagine how that will impact the economy. I have not changed my lifestyle yet, but am prepared to hunker down and cut out all unnecessary spending in a moment. So far I intend to carry on as usual but if the facts change, so will I.
Morning all.