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Easing tensions in the ME helped underpin sentiment as bargain hunters returned in force seeking oversold counters. Buying the 'dips' is a popular strategy among pis just as the 500 has hit a rough patch down nearly 6% this month.
Investors sought out tech growth stocks Amazon, Alphabet and Apple all reporting this week, while Nvidia ($793) rebounded 4% from a 10% sell off in the previous session. Tesla ($142) dropped 3% as the car maker cut prices in China & Germany following price reductions in the US. The stock has fallen 18% this last month and the Q results are expected to be the worst in 7 years. Ford Motor ($13) shone gaining 6% having been overlooked recently.
On the big board GS, JPMC & Amazon led the risers with Disney, UH & Verizon propping up the laggards. Twenty five of the top (30) gained on the day.
Cardinal Health ($104) fell 5% as the drug distributor said its contract with OptumRe, one of United Health Groups divisional companies will not be renewed after June.
On the economic front March personal consumption data (PCE) nos will be released this week.....,the preferred measure of inflation used by the Fed. Expected
small uptick to 2•6%.
---------------
Nyse data
Issues 2880
Advances 2066
Declines 730
U/c 84
NH 29
NL 44
T/vol(bn) 3•8
-------------
DJ +254 (38240)
SP +43 (5011)
NS +173 (17,211)
R2 +10 (1264)
WTI $83
10ytb 4•612%
-----------
MSCI(W) +26 (3289)
Gold Bugs -11 (252)
----------------
Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $87.
Gold $2308. Copper $4•431.
Palm $1030. Silver $26•990.
$1•235. €1•259.
FF +43. DF +2.
Morning all.
Asia is mostly higher this morning as easing ME tensions lifted mrkt sentiment. Iran saying they had no intention of responding to the latest strike from Israel bouyed mrkt participants.
In Japan investors went bargain hunting snapping a 4 day 5% losing streak as the 225 moved above the 37,300 level. At the mid'day break the 225 was up 250 with exporters, financials and motors leading advances. Gains were trimmed going into the close.
Elsewhere Hong Kong and Singapore were the bigest winnerss though Shanghai blue chips edged lower in their first chance to react to new Govt measures on Friday at promoting overseas investment in China's tech sector.
However an oversupplied stagnant property sector is a constant drag on mrkts. On a y-o-y basis house prices fell 1•5% the bigest decline in 13 months (59 cities reported price falls) and sales by floor area tanked 20% in first 2 months of this year. State banks have been ordered to boost lending for residential projects.
In Sydney investors sought oversold stocks which had suffered a 7 day sell off as miners, techs and financials were pushed higher. Gold retreated from its all-time high of c.$2400 (June futures $2410) and profit taking has sent the price down to $2364 this morning. Brent futures were off 50c to $86 a barrel due to a rise in US stockpiles.
Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $86.
Gold $2364. Copper $4•510.
Palm $1010. Silver $28•010.
$1•238. €1•161. 10ytb 4•657%
FF +62. DF +96.
Morning all.
Yesterday a large diversion of opinion occured in stocks. While the Dow pushed ahead 211 with 21/30 posting gains led by Amex and Coca Cola. The 500 fell for the 6th day in a row losing 232 points to close below 5000. Gold the safe haven play in times of turmoil closed at $2391. Most analysts see further upside should the ME descend into all out war.
Nsdq stocks tumbled near 400 points dragged down by Nvida falling 10% to $762 after Super Micro Computer slumped 23% to $710 due to no pre announcement of earnings considered a negative by investors of bad news ahead.
A raft of mega cap stocks will report earnings next week starting with bellwether stocks Tesla, Google & Meta, followed by Apple & Amazon the following week. Around 300 of the S&P will report Q1 nos fully expected to be c.9% ahead of last year. Currently the S&P p/er trades well above the long'term average of 16x at around 20x annual earnings leaving little room for disappointment.
Nyse data
--------
Issues 2892
Advances 1908
Declines 892
U/c 92
NH 13
NL 39
T/vol(bn) 3•9
-------------
DJ +211 (37,986)
SP -43 (4967)
NS -356 (17,038)
R2 +11 (1254)
WTI $83
10ytb 4•626%
-----------
MSCI(W) -24 (3256)
Gold Bugs +3 (263)
---------------
Close :- Vix 19. Brent $87.
Gold $2391. Copper $4•493.
Palm $1030. Silver $28•475.
$1•237. €1•161.
Yen 154. Yuan 7•24.
FF +29. DF -4
Morning all.
MSi data week 16.
--------------
Vols and deals fell for the 2nd week as the shares tread water. They seem to be climbing a wall of worry despite the UK mrkt posting a small ytd gain and growth revised upwards for '24 & '25 MSi is down 6%. I fully expect MSi to outperform in H2.
Sp 820-840
L/y 520
H 935
L 443
7/88 113
-------
Trds 49
T/vols 32,200
Buys 13,800
Sells 18,400
Sell% 57
Av trd 657
Av £ trd 4990
-----------
Morning all.
DJ +22 (37,775)
SP -11 (5011)
NS -99 (17,394)
R2 +1 (1243)
WTI $89
10 y/tb 4•563%
------------
MSCI(W) -1 (3280)
Gold Bugs +1 (260)
---------------
Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $89.
Gold $2381. Copper $4•420.
Palm $1030. Silver $28•340.
$1•242. €1•167.
FF -81. DF -270.
-------------
Nyse data
Issues 2898
Advances 1362
Declines 1423
U/c 113
NH 12
NL 58
T/vol(bn) 3•6
------------
Stocks across the Far East are at their lows for the session led by Tokyo where the 225 slumped over 1000 points on Middle East tensions in the main. Investors withdrew to the sidelines selling into recent mrkt strength.
On Wall stocks were muted on the session with no overall bias, though Dow Futures point to a significant fall later today calling the Dow off 250 points as oil prices spike. While corporate earnings continue to surprise and the economy performing well with inflation cooling, rate cuts are on the back burner for now with some analysts saying no cuts till Q1 2025.
Morning all.
Nyse data
--------
Issues 2880
Advances 1356
Declines 1433
U/c 91
NH 12
NL 62
T/vol(bn) 3•6
-------------
Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $88.
Gold $2376. Copper $4•362.
Palm $1040. Silver $28•465.
$1•247. €1•167.
FF +33. DF +118.
------------
Losses among techs sent Wall lower yesterday the 500 fell to its 4th straight loss since setting a record 52wk high of (39,889). The weakness in tech (Nvidia down $34) overshadowed better nos from United Airlines ($48) which soared 17% as business fliers returned in force. Revs topped estimates but the company posted a 15c per share Q loss, much better than forecasts.
Other stocks of note included Travellers ($205) slumping 7% after the insurers Q nos fell short of estimates due to higher catastrophe costs.
Donald Trump's social media company fared better for a change gaining 16% yesterday as the stock continues to swing wildly in frenzied investor trading. The stock fell 14% on Mon and 18% on Tuesday. At the IPO the shares soared to $79 valuing the company at over $6bn. Current price $26.
Losses in the bond market and easing oil prices lessened investor worries about inflation as the 10ytb eased to 4•58%. Gold prices trod water as investors ponder the next flare up in the ME. As bar and coin demand surge in part due to "buy your Gold" at Cost Co, Citigroup is calling gold at $3000 by 2025.
Morning all.
Be interesting to see how Severfield performs in the next few days!
Almost at your buy in price scoredagainsteps! Bet you didn't think it was coming round so quickly.
I have added a few. On a p/e in the low single figures it would be silly not to given my time frame is longer than a nanosecond.
DJ +63 (37,799)
SP -10 (5051)
NS +7 (17,714)
R2 -7 (1251)
WTI $85
10ytb 4•671%
-----------
MSCI(W) -21 (3297)
Gold Bugs -4 (256)
---------------
Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $90.
Gold $2381. Copper $4•300.
Palm $1040. Silver $28•225.
$1•243. €1•170.
FF +24. DF +50.
-------------
Nyse data
Issues 2894
Advances 999
Declines 1801
U/c 94
NH 9
NL 118
T/vol(bn) 4•0
------------
Morning all.
Outbloodystanding!!
It's a sea of red nos across Asia this morning following the broad sell off on Wall overnight as bond yields spiked after a report showed much stronger than expected US sales growth in March.
CMEGroup's FedWatch Tool indicates a 22% chance of a 25bp rate cut in June.
Wall stocks moved substantially lower throughout the day after the steep drop on Friday. Big tech led the mrkt drops as Apple & Microsoft were sold off while Goldman, Intel and United Health led the top 30 risers board.
The DJIA fell for its 6th straight day erasing most of its 2024 gains and the 500 lost 62 points to close just above 5050 level. Finally Wall's fear index ended at its highest since the bull mrkt began in Oct '23.
Nyse data
--------
Issues 2896
Advances 454
Declines 2400
U/c 42
NH 20
NL 89
T/vol(bn) 3•95
-------------
DJ -248 (37,735)
SP -62 (5062)
NS -297 (17,707)
R2-11 (1259)
WTI $86
10ytb 4•616%
-----------
MSCI(W) -33 (3318)
Gold Bugs -4 (259)
----------------
Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $91p.
Gold $2386. Copper $4•351.
Palm $1050. Silver $28•975.
$1•243. €1•171.
FF -80. DF -30.
Morning all.
I might add its usually the CEO or MD's job to boost the share price and thus the value of the the company.
Now we know our esteemed board are getting on in years so jetting round the world punting for business might not be for them, we need someone doing the leg work and developing future relationships. Will Nicholas Bell take over this most important job if he's not already doing it?
Somehow trade volumes have to increase, this morning only 2 trades in the first hour and just 50 last week. That's never cutting the mustard even for a micro cap let alone an Aim share.
I'm not the bigest holder by a long way but I'll lay you money I have probably made more trades than most since becoming a shareholder in late 2022 (35) and counting at prices between (410 & 868).
Since January 2 (850) MSi has fluctuated between 910 & 780
currently 820 so though not especially good the sp is more or less flat on a ytd basis. And considering we have had no news the lifeblood of Aim stocks as far as sp appreciation is concerned that's not a bad result all been said given All Aim is down 9% over 52 wks.
Still plenty of time for the board to announce any contract wins of note and I'm sure we must have been awarded at least one! Expect to see the shares turn for the better in the run up to the F/Y nos in late June.
Far Eastern mrkts are significantly lower this morning after Wall fell back on Friday. In Japan the 225 is down 409 at the morning break in subdued trading vols due to rising geo political tensions in the ME after Iran escalated the war against Israel by firing hundreds of missiles at Jerusalem. Most investors have retreated to the sidelines fearing a surge in oil prices and a worsening of the ME situation developing into an all out regional war.
In Sydney the ASX200 is down 38 towards the close with losses in Gold and tech counters. Major miners Rio Tinto and BHP are better on improving commodity prices. Gold Miners are lower despite prices in an uptrend, its recent momentum may have peaked. Gold hit an intra-day high of $2449 on Friday.
Elsewhere in Asia & Pacifica most mrkts are down though Shanghai is up 36 having alternated between positive and negative finishes through the last 4 trading days. The Shanghai Composite has recovered all losses since Jan 2024 trading 3% up ytd.
The Govt has issued an unprecedented set of policy guidelines to push for transparency, security and risk management in the country's US $9tn stock mrkts. A crackdown on corporate extravagance has eroded Chinese stockbroker incomes these past two years.
Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $90.
Gold $2357. Copper $4•300.
Palm $1060. Silver $28•275.
$1•246. €1•170. 10ytb 4•552%
FF -35. DF +124.
Morning all.
US stocks fell back throughout the Friday session as a mixed start to the earnings season wrong footed investors. The 500 closed out its worst week since October dropping c.2% not helped by tensions in the Middle East which rattled mrkts when Biden said "DONT" to Iran (attack Israel).
A jump in oil prices to nearly $92 further raised worries of more upward pressure on inflation and t/bills sank while gold a hedge against fiscal excess as debt explodes worldwide sees investors hoarding gold as the only worthwhile currency. Adding to nervousness was a report suggesting sentiment among US consumers is sinking as the Fed delays rate cuts.
Banks led the reporting season, Wells Fargo ($57) slipped despite topping analyst forecasts for overall earnings and Citi ($58) beat estimates for Q1 revs as investment banking profits delivered better than expected nos. The bank said it would be shedding 7000 jobs this year.
JPMC ($183) the largest US bank fell nearly 7% on a poor guidance outlook and having to pass on higher saving rates to depositors for the first time in years. BOA, Goldman & Morgan report next week.
NYC data
Issues 2886
Advances 449
Declines 2388
U/c 49
NH 64
NL 60
T/vol(bn) 3•9
-------------
DJ -475 (37,983)
SP -76 (5123)
NS -304 (18,003)
R2 -21 (1270)
WTI $85
10ytb 4•532%
-----------
MSCI(W) -40 (3351)
Gold Bugs -4 (263)
---------------
Close :- Vix 17. Brent $90.
Gold $2343. Copper $4•316.
Palm $1060. Silver $27•970.
Yen 153. Yuan 6•90.
FF -65. DF -22.
Morning all.
Really not much point in commenting on the weeks trading suffice to say the bears are in control and the stock is in need of spiritual support.
That's highly unlikely. Having had plenty of opportunity to buy investors, are in a quandary, and on the off chance the F/Y nos underwhelm they are primed to be sellers of the stock.
But having been a die hard bull for nigh on 2 years I see no reason to desert the company on short sellers outpacing buyers on one weeks evidence.
I think investors have been caught in the headlights and refuse to press the up switch for a clearer long-term view. I'm a buyer and remain on the bull tack come what may!
Wk 15
820 - 840
L/yr 520
High 935
Low 443
7/88 113
-------
T/trds 50
T/vols 33,000
Buys 12,150
Sells 20,850
Sell% 63
Av trd 657
Av trd £ 500
------
Ytd
Msi -5%
100 +3%
250 u/c
All +4%
Aim -1%
---
Gold +15%
Oil +17%
Palm +22%
---------
Morning all.
Big tech pulled the broader mrkt out of its slide yesterday led by the Nsdq hitting a record close. Apple and Nvidia were both up c.4% and were responsible for most of the mrkt gains which totalled $300bn in added value to stocks.
Earnings growth for companies in the 500 is expected to jump 11% this year. Eps growth for the 500 are up 47x that of the broader mtkt over the last 17 years and since 2004 the S&P has nearly quadrupled where the MSCI is up 48%. No wonder overseas companies want to list in NY.
Globe Life stock slammed 53% on Thursday bounced back 15% yesterday. The stock had been sold down on a report from Fuzzy Panda Research who alleged multiple occurrences of insurance fraud. Morgan Stanley ($86) dropped 5% on news Fed regulators are probing how the bank vets clients who are at risk of money laundering through the banks sprawling wealth management division.
The producer price index came in below estimates providing some relief however NY Fed President dampened rate cut hopes saying there's no need for a policy change in the near term.
The big banks will kick off the reporting season today when JPMC, Citi and Wells Fargo present earnings numbers.
Nyse data
Issues 2901
Advances 1415
Declines 1379
U/c 107
NH 47
NL 28
T/vol(bn) 3•8
------------
DJ -2 (38,459)
SP +38 (5199)
NS +296 (18,308)
R2 +6 (1291)
WTI $86
10ytb 4•575%
-----------
MSCI(W) +11 (3391)
Gold Bugs +4 (267)
---------------
Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $90.
Gold $2385. Copper 4•263.
Palm$1140. Silver $28•865.
$1•254. €1•170.
FF +35. DF +50.
Morning all.
On Wall the major stock averages remained firmly negative throughout the session falling to their lowest point in almost 2 months. Bond yields spiked to 4•500% and stock index futures fell on high inflation impacting ever changing rate cut prospects now scaled back by most analysts to September.
As US consumer prices increased more than expected in March due to gas prices and higher rents for the 3rd month in a row investors turned risk averse and pulled money out of the market particularly among the small caps. Gold which has been the star performer in Q1 slipped back but bulls of gold look to a close above $2400 as their next price objective.
In a surprise announcement the giant US big box retailer Cost Co said it had sold $100m in 1 ounce gold bars between Aug & Sept. Investors should start paying attention to the retailers gold business now thought to be running at between $100m - $200m a month with physical over the counter demand growing strongly.
The Dow tumbled over 400 points taking the index to 38,462 some 1428 points below the 52 wk high of 39,889. Big tech growth stocks and profit taking among the Dow 30, where Home Depot, Intel & Goldman propped up the laggards caused the about turn in sentiment. Walmart and Chevron led the 9 gainers on the big board.
-----------
Nyse data
Issues 2894
Advances 414
Declines 2433
U/c 47
NH 36
NL 46
T/vol(bn) 3•8
------------
Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $91.
Gold $2341. Copper $4•289.
Palm $1140. Silver $28•095.
$1•254. €1•167.
FF +22. DF +28.
Morning all.
Wall St having set multiple records through Nov to March now begs the question whether inflation is cool enough to deliver cuts to int rates.
Doubts have crept in after a series of hotter than expected reports on the economy that some are even talking about the possibility of no cuts, that's down from 6 or 7 at the start of the year. This raises fears of tipping the economy into recession should the Fed dither.
Todays volumes and trades were down on average as some of the bigest gainers in the Ai frenzy gave back gains (Nvidia et al). The mrkt staged a late rally to close near par for the day as Tesla ($177) returns to favour though Boeing ($178) fell $4 on an engineers complaint the company wilfully ignored safety issues. Strongly denied by Boeing.
Among lower division stocks Tilray Brands ($2•06) a meme Canadian cannabis stock was the big loser slumping 20% on Q3 growth nos to disapoint. Moderna ($113) a mega cap star of the covid era was a bright spot gaining 6% on news of a promising early stage drug trial.
Nyse data
Issues 2895
Advances 1615
Declines 1177
U/c 103
NH 104
NL 8
T/vol(bn) 3•4
------------
DJ -9 (38,884)
SP +8 (5210)
NS +70 (28,170)
R2 +7 (1324)
WTI $85
10ytb 4•359%
-----------
MSCI(W) +4 (3412)
Gold Bugs +5 (268)
---------------
Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $90.
Gold $2357. Copper $4•305.
Palm $1140. Silver $28•215.
$1•267. €1•168.
FF +46. DF +21.
Morning all.
Celestial events aside there's a packed diary of economic data out this week. Bond yields spiked ahead of key economic & inflation data, the release of FOMC minutes and the ECB monetary policy meetings later in the week, which could also shed additional light on officials thinking on rates. Reports on US consumer and producer inflation in the month of March are scheduled for Wed and Thursday.
Wall turned in a laclustre performance trading mostly around the u/c line at the start of Q1 earnings season led by JPMC, City & Wells Fargo. On a dull day for the mrkts Tesla provided a rare boost when Musk said the company would unveil its self driving robotaxi on August 8th. Shares added $8 to $173.
Trump's Media & Tech group valued at $9bn a few weeks ago sank another 8% as fans give up on the stock. Once trading as high as $74 the stock is changing hands at $36. His paper profits have dropped around $1•6bn to c.$3bn to date. The declines are welcome news for short sellers who own approx 5m shares.
Nyse data
Issues 2910
Advances 1665
Declines 1139
U/c 106
NH 133
NL 16
T/vol(bn) 3•2
-------------
DJ -11 (38,893)
SP -2 (5202)
NS -8 (18,100)
R2 +8 (1317)
WTI $87
10ytb 4•273%
----------
MSCI(W) +6 (3409)
Gold Bugs -3 (262)
---------------
Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $91.
Gold $2343. Copper $4•273.
Palm $1135. Silver $27•885.
$1•266. €1•165.
FF -2. DF -6.
Morning all.