Member Info for johnhume

Very mixed messages about re BIRG. 15 analysts cobering BIRG have top of €15.6 -median of €12.80 and low of €10.40. very rarely do you a SP at almost 10% below it's forecast low price.G Sachs have raised their TP to €12.72( 11.65) ,as have JP Morgan to €11 (10.5)and Barclays have dropped their TP to €14.20 ( 14.7).What are Davy/Goodbody TPs )

Same 15 analysts are expecting a div of 52c for coming year.

M O'Grady stated at interims release that divs to rise to 33.3% of statutory profits in coming year, from 25%, and the current performance supported plans for another share buy back. 2.15 Bn PBT probably about 1850mill PAT to allow c600mill for div.

Joe33,

prior posted in error. just saying that applying their EPS figures and their P/E ratios and forward prices can be calculated which are as follows '

; 2023 - EPS = 1.47 and P/E ratio of 6.43 gives SP of €9.45 .

2024 = EPS = 1.56 and P/E ratio of 6.1 gives SP of €9.516

2025 = EPS = 1.53 and P/E ratio of 6.15 gives SP of€9.41.

They have given constant revenue figures of €4.2 Billion for each of the years 23-24 and 25.

At year end of December 22 the EPS figure given as 87c and P/E ratio = 10.1 and SP trading in €8.8/8.9 range on 30/31 December 2022. The EPS figure just for 6 months trading to 30 June = 97c and an EPS figure of €2 for whole year of 23 very probable. So are we to expect a P/E figure of 10.1 as at 31/12/22 to reduce to a P/E ratio of 4.755 ( 9.51/2) as at 31/12/23.

BIRG peaked in 3/2008 prior to finance crash. It appears that the projections for PBT and EPS in dec 2023 could be 17% in excess of the top figures achieved in the peak of 3/2008 when the SP was at a level of €18/19. appreciated that we had lost the run of ourselves at that time with possibly unrealistic growth factored in to valuations. Having said that find it very difficult to accept CF projections especially if you have an EPS of €2 or thereabouts a dividend of at least 50c plus share buy backs with 23 results. Either one of Jan/Feb SP or CF figures way out of sync as both just not consistent.

Joeoh 33,

CF have not given a TP or TPs going forward but applying the

CF report revenue to be static at 4.2Bn for each of the years 23/24/25.

H1 23 revenue in interim figures stated to be 2.2 Bn.

GG

seeing that H1 PBT = 1050mill and BIRG Mgt expect H2 NII to be modestly higher than H1 would be confident that f/y PBT will hit 2100mill.

Cantor Fitzgerald have a note this am following a call with BIRG mgt and have come up with foll figures which are polar opposite to what was reported from interim figures.

EPS ; 23e = 1.47 ; 24e = 1.56 ; 25e = 1.53.

P.E ; 23E = 6.43 ; 24E = 6.1 ; 25E = 6.15.

Div yd; 23e=5.29% ' 24e = 6.76%; 25e = 7.48%.

If M O'Grady is to be believed EPS 23 should hit €2. CF also appear to be assuming a constant earnings figure for 24 and 25 as the share buy backs would explain the marginal increase in their EPS figures.

Their P/E figures appear to be very conservative considering BIRG hit over 11 early in 23. With the drop in the ratio to 6.1 in 24 they are predicting a SP drop as earnings assumed constant.

Also have never known div yd of Irish Banks to hit 7.48%. Are they expecting interest rates to continue to increase through to 25 - everybody else is predicting a fall next year.

3/2008 PBT should read 1,794 mill.

Doomster,

you enjoy (used to )giving SP predictions so what is your BIRG SP prediction for 31/12/2023. To assist you have a look at the following when BIRG hit it's all time high for y/e 31/3/2008 prior to finance crash.

PBT 3/2008= 1,1794 mill. EPS = 174.6. Div paid = 63.6c ; NII = 1.66%. SP c €19 ;

PBT 12/2023F = 2,150 mill. EPS = €2.03 ; Div poss = 66c ; NII = 2.9 %. SP = ?

Looking forward to hearing from you in next few weeks- do not leave it until new year's eve 2024.

Goodbody comments today on results;

" we estimate fy23 u/l PBT consensus will push up 10% to €2,160 mill and we also see a positive revisin to distrbution estimates which should position BIRG well in the context of the Board's distribution of surplus capital.

While BIRG has said nothing new on surplus capital return Investors will be heartened to see a cash dividend accrual of 280million which suggests upward revisions to fy23f distribution estimates."

BIRG today v it's peak y/e 31/3/2008.

3/2008 underlying PBT = 1,794mill. Basic EPS = 174.6c. Div = 63.6c. NII = 1.66% ROE = 21%.

Cash Dep = 86Bn. Loans etc = 136Bn. Total assets = 197Bn. loan/deposit ratio = 157%. Cap Ratio = 11.1%.

I believe the SP peaked at around €18/19 with a mkt cat of c.20Bn.

Looks like the 3/2008 PBT will be well exceeded - likewise EPS - and hopefully a div of 63.6c plus.

Birg today v it's peak y/e 31

Market is strange. 2022 PBT = 1.1 Bn. H1 2023 = 1.025 Bn. BIRG predict H2 to be marginally superior to H1 so one can assume a PBT 2023 figure of at least 2.1Bn to give an EPS of at least €2 as Joeoh 33 posts. A SP of €10 gives a P/E ratio of 5 whereas early 2023 the ratio was over 12 !

Doomster,

BIRG reported H1 2023 figures this am.

H1 2022 PBT = €419 mill. H1 2023 PBT = €1.025 Bill.

How did this come about from a Bank heading for liquidation in 2020 ?

AIB PAT H1 2022 = €477 MILL. H1 2023 = €854 MILL.

BOI PBT H1 2022 = €419 MILL. H1 2023 = € ?

Any predictions ?

€775 Mill.

Doomster,

Sorry if the detailed Broker note confirming your "rejected" airline to be the Wd No 1 LCC upset you in any way. However, the following may be more difficult for you to digest.

AIB this morning released their results for the 1st half year of 2023, confirming their PBT figure for the half year to be 11.6% GREATER THAN THEIR FULL YEAR RESULTS for 2022. Also reported that the combined PBT 2023 figures for AIB and BIRG to be in excess of €4.2Billion with both banks expected to distribute over 1Billion each to shareholders in 2023. 40c per share and 250mill in buy backs for AIB and 66c per share and over 250Mill in buy backs for BIRG. BIRG to report on monday.

You must agree these to be mind boggling figures for your "rejected" Banks.

PAT for first 6 months 11.63% greater than whole of 2022 with NIM running close to 3%. PBT of 2.2Bn as previously reported now looking likely with over 1Bn for distribution. Surprised that SP up only 4.5% on such news.

similar results for BOI on monday should copperfasten a SP over €10.

DT,

detailed broker note issued this am on the Wd No 1 LCC.

It appears a div of €400mill to be paid out in coming year- 3.5c per share.

Earnings/Rev to increase from 10.7Bn to 12.9Bn in 24 and 14.2 Bn in 25. With current oper costs at 9.2BN and projecting 10% growth in costs should allow for a comfortable PBT of over 2Bn next year.

current div yd of 1.16 to increase to 1.32 in 24, 1.71 foll yr and 2.25 thereafter.

Last year DFA spent just under 4mill in security on immigration facility housing 40 persons in Ballyroan.

looks like they should relocate facility to O'Connel street.

Most unlike you, moniman,, to be so indicisive - you should try smoking the same product as Enrico - when you establish location of his cave.

According to this report looks like both banks will have operating profits of c.2,2Bn each. AIB PAT in 2022 was 765mill and BOI PBT fig was 1.2bn. AT 33c div and 200mill buy back AIB will distribute c.1.05Bn for 2023 which would be c 50% of operating profit. Considering no of AIB shares in existence would have thought the proposed buy back ratio of c 25% would be higher.

If above figs materialise for BOI a div of at least 50c looks very conservative.

Moniman,

any particular reason you are reaching out so passionatley to Enrico ;

16.17 @ 14.53.

17/7 @ 13.49.

17/7 @ 15.34.

18/7 @ 10.21.

18/7 @ 16.25.

19/7 @ 10.56.

20/7 @ 11.11.

20/7 @ 16.49.

are you looking for location of his cave to join him with goodwill messages and outpourings of love!