Member Info for johnhume

Loopy,

any chance you might encourage the Doomster t give us his y/e SP predictions for BIRG and AIB in coming week.

Jolly decent of you to confirm you are a boring,monotonous .........

SS,

are you taking the p..s or do you require a very urgent appointment with Specsavers ?

Sloop John B,

were you the best in the class for originality ?

do you really have to continuously repost the same monotonous ......

Ispania,

according to BOI Investor relations BOI SP peaked at €18.65 at end of February 2007 with shareholders in issue of 1,025,549,226 giving a Mkt Cap of c.€19billion .While the company achieved it's best financial performance at 3/2008 market conditions had deteriorated to such an extent it's SP stood at €8.55 on the day prior to release of 3/2008 results on 21 May 2008.

Italian Bank Stocks Recover-

"Ital Govt has capped impact of surprise windfall tax prompting recovery in Financial stocks following a rout in previous session. Analysts at UBS said tax would have aggregate impact of 1.9 billion whereas the impact was measured at 3 billion prior to clarification "

Appears the 40% tax too be applied on "excess" net interest income growth arising from rising ECB rates. capped at 0.1% of Bank's assets. expected to have a 19% impact on banks nett profits this year.

not affecting analysts opinions on BIRG/AIB for coming year. Goodbody raise their AIB TP to 5.6 from 5.3 and expect bank to return surplus capital to s/hs in early 24.They expect BIRG u/l PBT to increase 11% in 23 and 6% in 24 and see strong SP performance in year ahead. CEO expects to return surplus cap it early 24.

Davy report that strong cap positions and attractive capital generation,further distribution capacity reinforces their outperform rating seeing significant SP upside from current valuations.

Govt cried wolf last year re taxing energy companies excess profits .

Fall off started from opening trades this morning while Moody news only hit this afternoon from US.

windfall tax in Italy/Spain /Hungary is 40% which ,together with Corporate tax, results in PBT being more than halved in arriving at PAT . So rather than 1.8Bn PAT you are looking at 950mill PAT and div of 325 mill.

Analysts will be reviewing their TP s.

UK Bank yields are 5% plus. BIRG yd 2.08% yesterday and 2.14% today. Yields vary industry to industry with higher risk carrying higher yields.

see Italy have followed Spain and Hungary in imposing a once off windfall tax on super bank profits. Bank SP s down sharply today With the outcry here on low deposit rates would not be surprised if something similar imposed here unless banks act on deposit rates. Difficulty with this is when taxes imposed here they tend not to be later removed and become permanent.

BIRG may have a 2 billin PBT fig for 2023 but what will the PAT fig be ?

Div growth of 50% looks ambitious but may be achieved by increasing the pay out ratio to 50% from 33% in coming years.

SP doesn't determine the div payout - Earnings/PAT what matter.

€3 div would require an EPS of at least €6 per share assuming a 50% div pay out ratio. SP would probably be over €60 at that stage and you would be up over 2200%

Ispania,

as already posted -BOI closing price on 7 July 2017 = 24,6c, BOI agreed to reverse split/consolidation exchanging 1 new share for 30 old ones with effect after friday market close and as a result the SP opened on monday morning ( 10 July 2017) at €7.38 -24.6c by 30.

7.38 after the split gives you 24.6c before the split ! These were the actual SPs after and before split. Really no idea where your 22euro comes from.

Wilbur Ross acquired a 9% stake in BOI in 2011 at 10c per share. Sold part of stake in 2013 at 33c and balance of 1.8Bn shares in 2014 at 26.5c, tripling his return .

Ispania,

The records show that a reverse split/stock consolidation comprising 30 old shares for 1 new share took place on the 7 July 2017. The share price on the friday was 24.6c and on the following monday morning traded at €7.38.

Cannot confirm what the SP was in 2007 but confident they peaked around €18 in 2008. Following the crash they slumped to a lowest SP of 8c. I believe W. Ross took a large stake at a SP in the region of 10c and subsequently sold out at a price well in excess of €8.

BOI peaked y/e 31/3/2008 with an u/lying PBT of 1,794mill and an u/lying EPS of 150.3c and a div of 63.6c.

Can they reach a SP again of €18 ? If their 12/2023 figures surpass those of 3/2008 they should be well on the way but markets are markets and are a law unto themsselves.

Ispania,

apologies for PBT/PAT figs at start of previous post- relate to BOI Mtge Co..

the 2006 and 2007 figs for BOI as follows ;

2006 - u/lying PBT =1,393 million. u/l EPS = 118.5 ; Div pd 52.5c = 44.3% pay out. NIM= 1.79. No of shares =1,175,527,426.

2007- u/lying PBT = 1,700 MILLION. U/L EPS =144.6; Div pd = 60.4c=41.7% pay out; NIM=1.77.No of shares =1,175,656,984.

IMO the difference in shareholding numbers -119 million- can be attributed to share buy backs in the intervening period especially with the state buy back.

Applying a SP of €18 to the above nos gives a Mkt cap of 21Billion to BOI at it's peak which ties in with my recollection and AIB at 22mill or thereabouts.

interesting to note that NIM in those years at 1.77/9 and now above 2.7%

Doomster,

you omitted to mention that night restrictions at Dublin Airport could result in a number of weekly cancellations.

Lo and behold the SP finishes today up 2%

Not forgetting the Wd No 1 LCC carried 175 million passengers in year ending 31 July.

Your silence on BIRG and AIB is deafening. Would be very surprised if even you are not drolling over such spectacular results.

Still awaiting your BIRG SP prediction for 31/12/2023- don't keep us in suspence for too long.

Ispania,

Having looked at the results for y/e 31 March 2006 I learn the following ;

PBT = 87 Million ; PAT = 76million. Div per share paid in September 2005 = 7c.no further div paid.

No of shares = 534,000,000 after allowing for an allocation of 90 million shares during preceding year.

I cannot comment on a SP of €315 in December 2006 which would put a market value of €16.87 Bn on BOI on a PAT figure of €76million. If M O'Grady is to be believed the PAT as at 31/12/2023 will be over 24 TIMES GREATER.

As posted already, my recollection of BOI as at 31/3/2008 is that they posted PBT of 1794 million and EPS of 174.6 and had a Market Capital of c.20 Billion with a SP of €18/19 ( possibly €20) reflecting shareholder numbers of c 1billion which is more or less the same as today. So ,imo, we are comparing like with like with the shareholder numbers to all intents and purposes the same. As at 31/3/2024 the remaining variables of PBT/PAT/EPS can be calculated and the SP , whatever it will be at that time , will give us the P/E ratio.

Hypothetical exercise I am encouraging is to determine a present/future hypothetical SP, assuming MO'Grady projection of 2.1Bn is fulfilled which is 17% greater than the 3/2008 PBT. As already posted ECB and mortgage rates etc are in line with those in 2008.

Ispania,

are you suggesting the historic SP of 18/19 be multiplied by 3 to give an equivalent SP of €57 ?

To my recollection the market value of the old BOI peaked at c 20 billion in 2008 with a SP in the 18/19 region - it may have hit €20 - to indicate a shareholding in the region of 1 billion -very similar to today's. I also seem to recall that AIB peaked at a marginally higher figure of c.22 billion ,again with a similar s/holding no to BOI.

If my memory serves me right IL and P ,together with Anglo I B , each had peak market values of c 15/16 billion plus the Irish Naionwide -EBS-ICS BS ? to be added to the mix.

Did the Govt Bank bail out total c.65 billion ?

Assuming M O'Grady comments come to pass and BIRG achieves PBT of c.2150 mill (PAT c.1850mil) is it reasonable to compare this with the 3/2008 figures of PBT 1794 mill and EPS of 174.6 which are historic peak figs for BIRG.

In summer 2008 ECB refinancing rate was 4.25% -same as now. Mortgage rate here in 7/2008 was 5.5% where we will likely be next month with the ECB rate/mtge rates slipping back at end of year with arrival of financial crisis.

with a peak SP of 18/19 in 2008 BIRG P/E ratio was c.10.5. As p/e was 11 plus in early 2023 can we assume a p/e of between 7.5 and 10 in early 24.

Ashton,

imo 33.3% (600mill) to be allocated as div with buy back to be added.

In 2022 div totalled 225 mill with 125 mill added as buy back. 225 mill very close to 25% of 2022 profit figure with 33.3% to be applied in 23 which will total c 600mill assuming PAT figure of 1800/1850 mill. As BIRG's highest historic PBT was c.1,800 mill will be interesting to see reaction if exceeded next year.

I believe BIRG buy back objective is to bring shares nos back to close to 1 billion which has been it's historic figure and are about 50 million adrift of this - achievable in 3-4 yrs .