Member Info for johnhume

Joeoh,

hopefully the sp will not lose the buy back equivalent on the double over coming days.

as posted yesterday you can expect a lot of volatility pending the ECB decision in coming days and beyond as the MM hope to swell their pockets. The bid price ,for instance, this evening is 9.80 and SP could be in this ball park tomorrow.

Next few days will present very good buying opportunities.

Joeoh,

Div and buy back would total 1.0920 per share - Divs = 634mill ( 60c per share) and buy back = 520 mill ( 49.2 per share)

Both BIRG and AIB have stated for last 18 months their intention of returning surplus capital to shareholders and both banks have exercised this by way of capital (share) buy back. AIB have returned 1 Bn already and hopefully BIRG will return the additional 480mill as approved at last year's AGM.

IMO dividends have only been paid from the PAT figure each year and I do not foresee this changing in the immediate future.

Joeoh,

The 2022 annual results came out end of February 23 and a dividend of 21c was declared at that time and a fairly nominal buy back ( c 12 million shares ) also announced. SP rose to about 10.75 ( I believe may have been 1 or 2 isolated trades of c €11 ) end of march / early april. The Jonah Doomster subsequently appeared on the scene and the SP nosedived 20%.

End of February 24 2023 annual results released with almost a tripling of the dividend to 60c and a 520mill buy back announced which will result in a buy back at the end of the programme in august of c 52million shares which I would consider somewhat more than a dribble. It will reduce the s/h base to about 1.006billion which is very different to 1.057 billion .The SP has recovered to 10.75 which is in line with the 2023 SP figure notwithstanding a trebling of the div payout and over 4 times the share buy back.

Market makers love volatility as it gives them opportunity to play with the SP, and make money. Markets always over react on both good and bad news. While the dog in the street expects the scissors to be applied to ECB interest rate this week I would be surprised if this does not result in volatility to both BIRG and AIB's SPs.

BIRG have publicly stated their commitment to a 40% div pay out ratio which they met this year. So you will not see a €1 div in immediate future unless PAT increases to c 2.7 Billion with 1.006bn shareholding. On the other hand if the s/h issue drops to 960 million ( applying 480mill buy back) a PAT figure of 2.4Bn will generate a div of €1, assuming distribution in form of divs alone.

Joeoh,

what you post is very true, dividends are money in your pocket.

going forward I imagine more emphasis will be placed on distributions by way of dividends once the shares in issue drop to 1 billion as this has been the share issue historically for BIRG.

Joeoh,

you may buy shares for capital gain, dividend or combination of both.Tax wise capital gain more beneficial than dividend assuming you are on higher tax rate.

You appear to buy shares ,then put them away until eventual disposal when you realise your gain (or loss). Share buy back results in less shares in issue with result SP rises and capital gain increases,the larger the buy back the greater the SP appreciation ceteris paribus.An added benefit of share buy back is that dividend amount increases due to distribution being circulated among less shareholders. Going forward BIRG will be paying interim and final dividends so income twice yearly which will suit you. My preference is capital gain so have a leaning towards share buy back.

BIRG has just paid out a solid dividend of 60c with the probability of this increasing 65c plus (interim/final)next year because of buy back.

Joeoh

I understand the 1 bn buy back took place within days of the AGM.

agreed little difference to sp but maybe sp would have fallen more if buy back never took place. AIB mkt cp still 2bn above BIRG - almost 20%.

Sloopy,

If you are in the pool don't fall over board whatever you do - no water left in the pool.

As posted already I am merely reposting what the Doomster has already posted - in which case the Doomster is trolling himself and writing garbage , a fact he has already admitted.

I am watching Ryanair SP very closely and see they are down to 17.70 this morning and my entry point is very near. Might be had for €17 on a poor day which should give a 20/25% return especially when they are now handing out divs of 40c plus. Not concerned about the Deutsche TP . Cream always rises to the top which cannot be said for IAG or EJ.

Doomster,

How can reposting your posts be "LIES" unless your posts are "LIES" in the first place.How can 1 or 2 line posts be quoted out of context ?

On 23/9/22 you post "I dont have IAG and RR.YEARS AGO I had both".

on 15.6/22 you post "Ryanair a serious risk to wealth.Much better shares (Boo) to put your money into".

on 13/10/22 you post "clear to see which a/line will recover most when bounce bacck happens -EJ up 6$, IAG up 9%,ryanair up 4.5% !!. EJ must grow 176% to reach prior high; IAG must grow 177% and Ryanair already there.

on 14/12/22 you post "imo US DC going to be major boost in a few months .Boo bargain buy at 40p and will be over £1 this time next year" !!.

2/11/23 you post "Shorts will be worrying.Once they panic and have to buy then Boo will seriously rocket.easy money to be made".

4/1.23 you post "dont worry T4G US warehouse will definitely be a game changer.This silly SP (38P) will soon be a distant memory".

As regards Ryanair Bankruptcy - in Sept 2020 IAG secured 1.3Bn by way of bail out and 2.74Bn by way of rights issue when Market cap about 2bn.Without b/out and RI totalling 4Bn IAG would be Bankrupt.

In 2021 E JET secured 1.4Bn bail out and 1.2 Bn by way of rights Issue ,without which would be bankrupt.

Ryanair no bailout and market cap never less than 8Bn.

In 1/24 you asked my BIRG prediction when SP less than €8 - I had predicted 10.5/11 and SP went to 10.75 PLUS div of 60c. Interesting that you have never returned to this prediction.

In essence , your profound recommendations have been SPECTACULAR FAILURES while your profound rejections have been STELLAR SUCCESSES.

Pocket wise it is of no concern to you ,as often posted, you dont trade in shares anyhow.

Correction ; IAG today = 172p and EJ = 457.5p

Doomster,

LIES - Here are some sample from YOUR POSTING HISTORY ;

-16 March 2020. "Keep E J and IAG but Ryanair BEING IRISH no hope at all and Mikey to cut his losses and declare bankruptcy.

4 November 2020 - "IAG best hold in aviation today"

9 November 2020 - " better day for EJ today, best business model and easy to see who will come out on top ".

22 July 2020 - " anything under 300p is a SCREAMING BUY in BOO ".

8 September 2020 - " back to 400p very soon,plenty more to come "

22 September 2020- "fwiw 400p this week for BOO , will hold FOR THE INEVITABLE 500P "

A few comments on YOUR MAGICAL PREDICTIONS ;

WHY did "your best hold in aviation today, IAG , have to resort to a Government Bailout and a huge Rights Issues to survive covid with the end result that its peak SP of 477p in 2020 is a measly 177p today ?

Why did your best business model, E Jet, haave to resort to a Govt Bailout and substantial Rights Issues to survive covid with the end result that it's peak 2020 SP of 1260p has fallen to c 500p ?

HOW did your predicted Bankrupt IRISH AIRLINE , Ryanair, become the World No 1 Airline by market capitalisation WITHOUT THE BENEFIT of any Govt Bailout and a measly 400mill Rights issue.

How did your predicted liquidated IRISH Banks rise 850% and over 550% in 3.5 year period.

Some months ago you had a laugh at my predicted 10.5/11 SP for Birg in new year. HOW COME YOU HAVE NOT COMMENTED ON THEIR RECENTLY HITTING 10.75. Is the smile on the other side of your face.

As posted already YOU are the one who mocked DT's 50p and 30p predictions . Who was proved correct and who looked the id...t !.

As you posted BOO to be a SCREAMING BARGAIN at 300p we cannot be surprised at you now posting Boo to be an absolute bargain at 34/5p as opposed to a screaming one.

I must revisit your posting history as I found my last visit very amusing.

Would also CONFIRM NO LIES IN THIS POST as I am relating verbatim your posts and my comments on EJ/IAG peak/low prices to be FACTUAL as are my Ryanair comments..

You are a beaut and a TOTAL AND UP.

Doomster,

simply quoting your 20/9/2020 post.

also for following 12 months as sp tumbled you predicted stronger rises.having posted Boo's praises for last 4 years why not continue to do for another 4. It's your money but with no profit predicted until 2026 at earliest you are on a wing and a prayer.

as was frequently posted then you had zero credibility.

note you are very quiet on BIRG's recovery to 10.75 !

Cuckoo,

you would be surprised how these decimal points ADD up to being the equivalent of a substantial number of shares in a bag of 520million.

Had a very enjoyable walk from your pad in Lansdowne Place in Ballsbridge to the RDS this morning.

Would strongly recommend you take a walk yourself as you REALLY need to get away from that rear view mirror and screen for a few hours. Do wonders for your mind. Maybe a flight to Cloud Cuckoo land would be more beneficial.

Whichever you do just ensure happiness keeps radiating from your over worked fingers.

ashton,

had long chat with p o'sullivan of birg investor relations prior to agm re 480mill balance buy back.

he advised that current buy back should be completed c 20 august but scale of buy back dependent on daily volume as their buy back limited to %age of daily volume.

also advised that buy back balance dependent on frankfurt (ecb) approval which takes months and such approval not to be sought until completion of 520mill buy back. also commented on the market sensitivity surrounding this.

probably makes sense as 1bn buy back approved at 2023 agm in may 2023 and buy back didn't commence until release of 24 results on 26 february.

nothing further of substance raised at meeting ,other than contained in 26 feb statemen****eting confirmed resumption of bi annual distributions next year.

Check your posts for 22/9/2020.

Check your post history.

Samson,

not a bully boy - just a pedantic cynical narcisstic cuckoo passing his life away looking in a rea view mirror when not nesting beside the lse board.

Cuckoo,

on 16/4 you posted "...dont sell at 10.12.another 50c to be had.unfortunately SP currently 9.55.sound advise indeed "

why the change of heart ?

" ..talk your own advise " ??

As regards GG's grammer I hope you are aware that buy back refers to share buy back with the share referring to buy rather than back. strong grammatical case to be made for 455000 shares being bought to mean buys rather than backs, which relates more to the game of football/hurling etc.

also to get your calculator working correctly the buys back today actually totals 4,845'886 rather than 4,845,750.

GG

I shall be at the agm - hopefully I shall meet the cuckoo if he can detach himself from the mirror/screen for 1 hour or so.

Doomster,

one thing is certain - when you predict a fall in ANY SP the direct opposite happens. I may well take a punt on this based on your rejection.

Doomster (U Duggie to the uninformed)

Is it not a bit rich for you to lampoon DT on the Glen. only a fraction of your IPO price of 530P. Are you not the only one on the LSE board that enjoys a perfect negative correlation with the market - holder of 2 FTSE Dogs etc.

- did you not post throughout 2020 that your favourite Airline stocks to be IAG and EJet with Ryanair to be liquidated by march 2021. Still awaiting an answer to my query as to why Ryanair's market capitalisation is DOUBLE the COMBINED market value of IAG and E Jet.

- When Boo sp fell to 400p in 2020 you predicted an immediate recovery to 500p. In FACT whenever SP fell( which was continuous) you always predicted a greater recovery. You are the one who laughed at DT when he predicted BOO would fall to 50p when prevailing sp was 70p. Similarly, when he prediced fall to 30p when prevailing price was 50p-all FACT.

- You are the one who in 2020 predicted the collapse of both Irish Banks, BIRG and AIB. Still awaiting a response to my query how both banks have grown 850% and 600% respectively since. You also scoffed at myself when I predicted back in september 2023 a SP of between 10.50/11 for BIRG in the 1st qtr of 2024. Still awaiting a response to my query how come they recently traded at 10.75 . You will also recall that when you praised BIRG back in 5/2023 I posted this to be the death knell of BIRG and they proceed to fall well over 20%. Throwing stones in G'houses comes to mind.

You are a beaut.

GG,

congrats on breaking through your 10.62 sp price.

as of today 24,909,535 shares bought back at cost of 236,612,631 and av price of 9.4988.today's buy back will go through 25mill and 240mill cost leaving 280mill to be bought back by H1 results day. with 45 trading days to H1 results day unlikely buy back will be completed by then which might not bode well for 480mill buy back by end of december.

520 mill buy back should result in shareholding of c. 1.005bn which would be in keeping with BIRG's s/h base of 1bn prior to financial crash.

Additional 480mill buy back brings s/h down to c.960mill which would be big catalyst and should drive sp to 11 and possibly further. Important that BOD thinking on this be raised at agm.

Cuckoo,

i knew the sunshine would have happiness radiating from your fingertips. You will find it much healthier than looking in the rear view mirror. I suppose 1 consolation from the rear view mirror would be the image of madge looking back at you.

I could have sworn you had 14 posts on at least 1 of the 3 screens on my desk !