Member Info for johnhume

Joeoh,

Interim Div = 352mill = 40% of PAT which means PAT figure = 880mill..A H2 repeat of H1 gives a PAT figure of 1760 mill for full year. which would be well in excess of PAT for 2023. The impairment figures adopted are distorting the PBT figures for both years. In 2022 Impairment = 138mill ; in 23 = 403mill; in H1 = 50mill !!. They are all over the place and imo are being massaged for whatever reason.

The comments on divs and share bb distribution going forward in guidance with CET1 > 14% ,with current CET at 15.4% very interesting. If Davy bb prediction come to pass s/h base could drop below 850mill in coming 2/3 years.

BIRG Investor relations confirm int. div of 35c to be paid on 7/11 to s/h registered on 11/10. Div payout totals 352mill - (1.005bn s/holders) confirming no further bb this year on completion of current 520mill bb programme.

"Group expects 24 distribution to comprise combination of divs and bb with progressive divs per share on earnings, and share bb with an objective to distribute to our CET guidance of > 14%." Current CET1 = 15.4%..

My read on this is next share bb announcement and implementation will take place on release of 24 full year results end of February. It just remains to be seen if this totals 480mill or Davy's predicted 625mill.

Doomster,

had you not a good day yesterday : how about last night ?

Showing your emotional side once again which is most dangerous investment characteristic,besides relying on "Bottle".

Nvidia ain't a 7 day wonder - here for the future, Like DT .adopt a little patience as essential for investment.

Likewise Ryanair - delighted to avail of exceptional buying opportunities and shall go back in once dust settles. Maybe got at close to 14. Then enjoy the profit as they head for their inevitable 25. As I am not greedy would be happy with 20.

See your Boo back in the 33s again. Probably confirms my feeling that your boo confidence is shredded as your prolonged silence is deafening. Ronny L's post of times past to yourself comes to mind ; " you are waving massive flag for Boo ever since they were £4. Now down to 33p. What does that say about your research and credibility as a poster. Totally incompetent , no conscious and zero credibility " And Ronny was only referencing Boohoo. Just imagine if he had researched your historical recommendations on IAG - EJ - and your historical rejections of Ryanair - BIRG - AIB- and your 2 FTSE DOGS !!!!

I see your predictions even continue on to the soccer pitch - afraid onlt the team is coming home !

Tuscan,

A div of 35c paid in november would be very positive giving a total div of 95c for the year. BIRG have done a u turn here as their more recent statement indicated interim div to be paid in 2025. Never known an interim div to exceed a final div but that will be the case if total 25 div is 63/64c. Was it confirmed t be payable in Nov in interim report ? You state distributions will comprise a combination of ord div and share bb. Are share bb in addition to 35c div or are they taken out of 35c div thereby leaving less income to s/h ?

A little disappointed with the PBT figure as the impairment provision is a mere 50mill - down from 403mill provision in 23 annual results. I had anticipated impairment charge of 200mill in arriving at pbt of 1.05bn. Maybe Davy's comments of a more benign impairment climate coming to pass.

Note that levies provision dropped from160/165mill to 125/130mill and BIRG have upped their annual NII figure slightly to 3.55Bn.

Agree that at this stage ncreased div rather than bb of more benefit to s/h.

Let's see what AIB deliver on friday.

GG

24 div totals 63.7c apportioned as Interim = 20c - final = 43.7c.

BIRG. AIB.

NII ; 1836M 2002M.

Other Income ; 375M 347M,

Total ; 2211M 2349M.

Costs(staff); 965m 969m.

Impairment charges; 133m 88m.

u/lying PBT ; 1005M 1163M

PBT ; 975m 1113m.

Income Tax ; 156M 167M.

PAT ; 819M 946M.

Distributions Per Share ; BIRG = 109.2(23) ; 126.3 (24) ; 129.6 (25) ; 142.7 (26).

AIB = 26.6(23) ; 27.6(24) ; 20.8(25) ; 16.6(26) ????

Some details from Davy 3 year analysis on BIRG ;

u/lying PBT ; 23 = 2023M ; 24 = 1979M ; 25 = 1833m ; 26 = 1925m.

attrib Profit ; 23 = 1524m ; 24 = 1529m ; 25=1393m ; 26= 1457m.

Key Metrics; NII 23 = 3.01% ; 24 = 2.86% ; 25 = 2.69% ; 26 = 2.68%.

cost/income rat ;23 =42% ; 24= 45% ; 25= 47% ; 26 = 47%.

Valuation ; P/E 23 = 7.4 ; 24 = 7.1 ; 25 = 7.4 ; 26 = 6.7.

P/TNAV 23 = 1.1x ; 24 = 1.02x ; 25 = 0.97x ; 26=0.91x.

div yd ; 23 = 5.7% ; 24 = 5.9e

Impairment charges ; 23= 403m ; 24 = 265m ; 25 =269m ;26 =277m.

Buy Back programme; 23= 520m ; 24 = 625m.; 25 = 625m; 26= 692m.

Divs distributioon ; 23 = 60c ; 24 = 20c + 43.7c ; 25= 63.7c ; 26 = 65c.

If future buy back programme is as Davy predict it is easy too see how they arrive at a TP of 14.6 as shareholding base will be down to c 840m giving a mkt cap of c 12bn. imo buy back will reduce once s/h goes below 1bn.

AIB Mkt value today = 12.76 Bn ; BIRG = 10.7Bn. AIB 19% greater than BIRG.

AIB value per DAVY TP = 15Bn ; BIRG = 14.675Bn ( assuming 1.005bn shares at 31/12/24).

So market values almost identical based on target prices but BIRG 19% less today.

Davy Research 23/7/24 -- " Capital generation was 1 of key highlights of Q1 across irish banks and expect this to persist through Q2 supported by income dynamics and robust irish economy which should result in A BENIGN IMPAIRMENT BACKDROP. This will support capital positions well above management targets and introduction of interim divs for AIB and BIRG. We make modest changes to our forecasts in advance of H1 results. On 24 earnings AIB trades at 7.3x,BIRG at 7x and PTSB at 21.5x. AIB trades at 1.1 x 24 tangible book BIRG at 1x and PTSB at 0.4x.

We increase ur Target Price for AIB to 6.20 ( 5.900 and leave BIRG unchanged at 14.60."

Certainly hope their "benign impairment " prediction comes to pass. If a similar impairment charge is adopted in 24 as in 23 and you might see a PBT fig of c. 1.15Bn plus.

Davy predict div of €648mill and 625mill buy backfor 2024. div = 66c increase of 10%.

Very interesting almost full front page article today on SBP given over to AIB and BIRG.

They predict H1 profits of 1.2Bn for AIB and 1,1 Bn for BIRG. I understand AIB historically report PAT fig with BIRG n PBT.

They also predict (per Davy) AIB to return 1.7 Bn by way of div/buy back and BIRG to return 1.3Bn via div/bb.

BIRG returned 1.14Bn from 2023 results so 1.3Bn next year would be massive. It means that the 480mill balance buy back at least shall be returned next year. If prediction comes to pass the shareholding base at AGM time next year shall be reduced to 980mill. Assuming say 500mill buy back leaves 800mill or div of over 80c per share payable in 2 lots.Valuing on 81c div alone , with 6% return justifies a sp of €13.5.

lets see what next week brings.

Sloopy

traded at 14.96 this am - up 10.8% in last 24 hours. The cream always rises to the top.

hope you had the good sense to buy in at 13.5 or even 13.75. not every day you make 10% on your investment.

Sloopy,

As we crack you up why the anger ? Too much sun ? the surplus weight getting to you ?Be positive and act on it.

Uncle Mikey recovered 7% today with result mkt cap now over 16.5 Billion . Now well over 5 times the mkt cap of E Jet and DOUBLE the COMBINED VALUE of IAG and E Jet.Such has been the staggering rise of Ryanair a short term correction is inevitable before the share price resurgence resumes. The 30% appreciaion of BIRG in 3 months comes to mind..The Doomster and yourself appear to be well fitted - with inaccuracies to the fore.

n 15/5/24 Doomster posts - "EJ Pilots squeezing for more dosh.same likely t happen across other airlines.All have same unioons.Ryanair renowned for low wages bound to be targeted for sure." MRE HORS....T FROM THE DOOMSTER.

11/7/23 Doomster posts - " Ryanair will lose their customers but E Jet will grow further ". Ryanair passengers pa now hitting 200 million !!!

7/11/23 - BIRG sp = 8.39 " 6 months ago you recommended BIRG at €9b but look at how much they have fallen. Lucky I didn't buy " !!

8/11/23 - " Boo certainly seem to have turned it around.what will really boost SP is when shorts get nervous .60p by next spring " ???

Doomster has certainly got it wrong with BIRG -iLast november deemed himself lucky not to have bought at 8.3 and 3 months ago deemed BIRG a STRONG SELL. Will the TAUP EVER GET IT RIGHT ? Can well understand how he is terrified of making predictions as he has never got it right. Forget the IQ and Bottle - just doesn't have it. Any hope of securing a note on his preferred A/Line to march 25 - when Boo will hit 60p - is BIRG a strong sell or moderate buy all gone for a burton.

Doomster

Ryanair PAT = €360million ; E Jet = £236mill. which is the bigger figure ? Clue = it's not E Jet

Ryanair Mkt Cap = 15.5 Billion. ; E Jet = 3.25Billn. which is the bigger figure ? clue = it's not E Jet.

Passengers carried in qtr ; Ryanair = 55.5mill ; EJ = 25.3mill.which is bigger no. ; clue =it's not EJ.

So why is Mkt Cap of Ryanair almost 5 times that of Easy Jet ??? . Perhaps it is down to those massive Rights Issues given out 3 years ago TO KEEP EASY JET AIRBORNE. Imagine the chagrin of the pre RI shareholders as they being of the opinion that such RI were to be in the form of GRANTS, with their s/h not being diluted !!.

So, Doomster, can you confirm if EJ is your a/l model to display greatest %age growth to march 2024.

Also, do you still consider BIRG a STRONG SELL ,notwithstanding their 30% growth in last 3 months. Do you think their day is run ?

Do you agree with my comments that your confidence in Boo is shredded seeing you cannot give us a prediction on when they will hit 60p , this being a far,far cry when you were shouting regularly from the rooftops of Boo hitting 500p and then 400p. !

Sloopy,

How are you this lovely summer's day. Still by the poolside shedding the kgs or are you putting them on.

Believe it or not I don't post here every day- no posts between 9 and 20 July for example.

Not much point in comparing Easy Jet and Ryanair - as posted before Ryanair's market cap is DOUBLE that of IAG AND Easy Jet COMBINED.

Delighted to see that EJ 's qtr profits just over half of those of Ryanair. and good for the industry. Just wondering if this will encourage the DOOMSTER to weigh in behind EJ as his preferred model to outperform IAG and Ryanair between now and march. Has he yet got over his SUPREME EMBARRASSMENT in recommending BIRG as a STRONG SELL when they were €8.20 3 months ago. 30% appreciation in 3 months is a steller performance. I'd imagine there is a touch of the yank in Doomster - when he fails he does it spectacularly.

His confidence in Boo appears to be shredded. Now incapable f predicting when they will hit 60p and couple of years ago was predicting 400/500p on monthly basis.He was good for a laugh back then.

I take it you are smart enough to avail of current buying opportunity in Ryanair -"don't look a gift horse in the mouth ".

Hopefully you are not taken in by the Doomster's prediction of impending liquidation -Uncle Mikey being averse to Rights Issues.

Let's see what EJ results bring tomorrow.

Doomster

Doomster's knowledge of The Airline Industry as set out in his recorded postings ;

1. My recommended model is IAG. Peaked at 440p few years ago and now trading at 160p. MUST GROW almost 300% to reach prior high. Considering the DEBT this carries and extensive RIGHTS ISSUE 3 years ago should recover to peak price in c. 15 years assuming 18% annual growth compounded !!!.

2. YOUR preferred business a/line model is E Jet.Peaked at 1270p few years ago and now trading at 426p. MUST GROW almost 300% to reach prior year high. As heavily indebted and burdened with RIGHTS ISSUES should take another 15 years to reach prior peak price assuming 18% annual growth compounded.

3. YOUR LIQUIDATED model, Ryanair, peaked at €19 few years ago and now trading at 13.62.MUST GROW a meagre 40% to reach prior high which should be achieved within 12 months, Such was strength of it's balance sheet no debt required and a meagre Rights Issue of 400mill required.

So, DOOMSTER, HOW DID YOU CALL THE AIRLINE SECTOR SO BADLY WRONG. YOUR PREDICTIONS ARE DISASTROUS WITH YOUR RECOMMENDATIONS TANKING THROUGH THE BASEMENT AND YOUR REJECTION BECOMING THE WORLD NO 1 . I have bought Ryanair at the prices you quote and shall buy again in coming days as this is a once off buying opportunity. While I am currently in the red I have not the slightest concern with Ryanair as they shall deliver in euros,being the WD No 1 by mkt cap and the joint Wd No 1 on credit risk basis.

Your 2 YEAR CONSISTENTLY LAUDED Boohoo has to grow by 1100% to attain it's prior high from 34p to 400p and yet you are unable to predict when it might achieve the lowly sp of 60p !!!!.

At a SP of €8.20 3 months ago you recommend BIRG as a STRONG SELL. 3 months later they have appreciated over 30% so where does that put your STRONG SELL 4 years ago when their SP was €1.35 you predicted their liquidation and they proceed to appreciate 850% subsequently!!!!

As regards GGp their day in the sun is not far away. How far away do you think Boo's day in the sun is ? Oops forget - you don't have the IQ or the BOTTLE to make predictions, even in the COULD form.

How does it feel being a TAUP investment wise?

PS If you undertake a study of the Balance Sheets of IAG and Easy Jet you should learn all you need to know about RIGHTS ISSUES and their Implications. This study sets out the negative side of RI -ie when corporations must resort to their adoption when debt finance not available with result existing s/h diluted. There is actually a positive side when RI adopted to expand a corporation to give accretion value to s/h.

Feel that also worth mentioning this article over 12 months old (17/7/23) and Ryanair now in stronger position today than 12 months ago - financially, passengers carried, balance sheet etc.

A SP entry point around €13.5 an opportunity not to be missed.

DT/FP,

very interesting article especially when you bear in mind these boys err on the side of caution.

Possible div of 630mill in 2026 ! at such a rate of div growth investors will also see this an income driven share, being only capital growth driven up to now. 215 mill passengers in 2025 ! Not only wd no 1 mkt cap wise ,now equal wd no 1 credit risk wise. "Short term pain,long term gain " the understatement of the week.

Sloopy appears to be very upset about my repeated requests to Doomster - most surprising from one who doesn't read my posts. As posted already, Sloopy, use your influence on the Doomster , get him to exercise a little IQ/Bootle and answer my 4 queries and no more requests. Alternatively, he can simply advise the board he lacks the intellect/IQ/ Bottle to give even his COULD opinion/prediction/thoughts on these straight forward 4 requests.

So ,Doomster, is this what you are reduced to - has so and so posted or not posted on a certain board. The level of maturity and intelligence you are displaying is mind blowing.

How about a response from you to my 4 queries - in addition to your thoughts/predictions we will make do with COULD.

The exercise will work wonders for your grey matter or it that now extinct.