Member Info for johnhume

BIRG Investor Relations confirm that the Interim dividend was historically paid in the 1st qtr of the calender year (final qtr of their financial year ) as their financial year end was 31 march .The first full financial year under new year end date was 2010 and the 35c ID payable in november represents the first ID payable under the revised year end date.

Historically, the ratio between the interim and final dividends was c 34/40 - 60/66% in which case the final dividend could total 56/60c, financed by special/60%pay out ratio.

Joeoh,

correct - confusing the years 23/4. also the fact that interim div for 24 is being paid prior to publication of full year results has thrown a wobble. Interim div normally payable post publication of full year results and final div payable post AGM.

Seeing the 60c div paid out in june 2024 was final 24 div is the 35c interim div payable in November 24 in respect of 2025 ?

If not are you expecting another interim div payment to be announced in Feb 25 and payable in March/April ?

Trudemill,

as of friday 2/8 , shares in issue total c.1,012,800,00 with 89mill remaing for buy back likely to result in share holding of c.1,003,500,000 on completion of current bb.dependent on sp.

never known an interim div to be paid in advance of publication of full year results .

AIB announce on friday a further bb of 500 million shares and discussions with Dept of Finance are underway to complete this. This means AIB are distributing 2.2 Billion in 2024 whereas BIRG are distributing just 1.15 Billion - little more than 50% of what AIB have done. BIRG's interim 35c div relates to 25 and not to be included in 24 distribution.

BIRG could pay a final div of 65c 1) by means of a special div of 30/35c or 2) BOD increasing the pay out ratio to 65% from 40%.

Distribution wise BIRG are seriously lagging AIB with a lot of catching up to do which hopefully will come about end of feb or before. Both banks have identical cap ratios so hard to see why it doesn't happen. remains to be seen how turmoil of last couple od days impact on this.

AIB share BB in 24 to be 1.5Bn with announcement yesterday of further buy back of 500mill.

with both banks with identical CET1 ratio of 15.5% BIRG likely to announce a further substantial buy back end of Feb if not before. Buy back of 625mill plus current balance of 90mill should result in 70mill shares taken out to reduce s/holding to c 940mill.

High volatilty in play - 66c differential in sp yesterday. traded as low as 8 end of february recovered almost 35% in following 5 months. good buying opportunity.

Doomter

traded at 28.56 yesterday - time to fill your boots or do you think the Boo can be had cheaper ?

would not like to see a Rights Issue now with a RR Discount at say a sp of 12p.Is it likely ?

Doomster,

In the past I have referred to you as a CENTURION - the underpost by a mile on this board.

You live in a time warp.

Believe it or not The Irish National anthem was played which confirms to me the gold medal attaches to Ireland, in keeping with many other great northen bowers in the past.

Do you think he was hijacked and forced under pressure to box under the Irish Flag. Same applies to so many great rugby players. Time for you to leave the 19th Century.

See the old Boo traded today at 29 so I assume you have filled your socks as you did when they were 400p.

I mean back on 29/9/20 you were posting - " fwiw 400p this week for Boo,will hold for 500p" !!!!

I notice a few posters on the Boo board are speculating on a coming Rights Issue. Do you agree ? If so, will you be offering your R I expertise to the Boo board ?

OR, IN REALITY, seeing your deafening silence we can assume your confidence has finally evaporated.

Doomster,

another gold medal in the rowing ! with your zero gold comment bound to be more in the offing.

Doomster,

no question but you are unique. Daniel Wiffen won the 800 freestyle in Olympic Record time and if you check the race you will see he won Ireland's first Olympic swimming gold in decades since michael smith.i Atlanta.

Probably partly explains how your mkt tips are so "accurate" !

You will be telling us next that Boo hit 60p this week !

" absolute prat ".

So, Cuckoo, you are very obviously not laughing with my explanation as to why I was disappointed with the H1 24 results when comparing like with like with 23 figures.

Doomster,

perhaps a silver lining to your Boo carnage. See you are the R I specialist why not contact the Boo board and offer them your RI wisdom.

Doomster,

your sport predictions on a par with your market tips. believe it or not but a Gold won in the pool 48 HOURS BACK on TUESDAY.

Your beloved Boo DOWN at 31.5p this morning. Do you believe this financial renegotiation is root cause ? Dread to think of ramifications if a Rights Issue is required. RCF was for £325 mill . How many shares required to cover this at 12/14p a share - 2.3-2.7 bn.Could end up with almost 4 bn shares in issue. Can well understand why you focus on Nvidia and Ryanair -

Sloopy - hopefully you are enjoying another beautiful day on the island - by the pool

" ----you were disappointed today with PBT of 1.1Bn and your guess pre PBT was 1.05bn."

on 12/7/24 I posted " to complete the H1PBT prediction how about including the impairment provision figure. I have adopted 200mill "

So my pre impairment PBT figure was 1.05bn plus 200 mill = 1.25 bn.

actual pre impairment PBT figure was 1.1bn plus 50 mill = 1.15 bn.

according to my calculator 1.15 bn is much more disappointing than 1.25bn.

The ACTUAL H123 pre impairment profit figure was 1,184mill and the ACTUAL H1 24 pre impairment profit figure was 1,124mill - 60 mill less than 23. The H1 23 impairment figure was 158mill and the H1 24 impairment figure was 50 mill , giving a swing of 60 + 108 mill. disappointing would you say. Impairment charges distort profit figures.

You continue to coo about the 60c div for 23 seemingly trying to prove you have a doctorate in Pedantry. EVERYBODY is perfectly aware that the 60c div represents the total div ( interim/final) paid out in respect of f/y 2023. EVERYBODY is equally aware that the just announced interim div of 35c to be paid on 7/11/24 relates to the financial year 24 results.

EVERYBODY is equally aware , as shall the Revenue Commissioners, that all shareholders , assuming they are on the register on the relevant dates, shall receive divs totalling 95c in the calender year ending 31 December 2024.

Assuming the PAT figure for 24 continues at current levels and the BIRG BOD maintain a max p/out ratio of 40% the final div shall not exceed 30c in June 25. Nothing to prevent the BOD to declare a special dividend to supplement the final div in addition to bb.

Post 24 results I would expect div to be published at release of annual results end of feb with interim payable march/april and final payable aug/sept post AGM.

So ,cuckoo, you have now been conferred with a Doctorate in Pedantry, to add to your Doctorate in Cynicism.

"if I make 50000 a year and get paid once every 5 years doesn't mean I get 2.5mill in 28 "

Cuckoo,

any possibility you might explain the logic of your comment or is a cuckoo's brain required to decipher ?

Cuckoo,

so you are saying the 95c dividend receivable in 2024 is irrelevant. By jesus I would love to see you explaining that one to the Revenue Commissioners.

Joeoh,

BIRG have stated max payout is 40% of PAT. I have adopted the Davy predicted 24 full year div of 63/64c and with 35c being paid in November that leaves a balance of under 30c as final div in june 25. If BIRG have a PAT figure of 1.8bn ( PBT c 2.15bn) for 24 this will allow a full year div of c 70c and therefore a final div of 35c in june.ALL depends on the PAT figure and the IMPAIRMENT provision. BIRG BOD could possibly pay out a special div,rather than bb, but have not yet done so or even indicated that they will. Davy prediction are bb of 645/620/697 mill over coming 3 years. Fully appreciate that this not cast in stone and merely a prediction. But a strong prediction to put in writing.

Joeoh,

The plan is or should be to make money. imo the results / report issued today is reasonably comprehensive setting out the chief points as is normally set out in such reports. AIB come out on friday and you can examine each objectively to see where they might differ or where 1 may offer more info than the other. As posted already I find the impairment provision a bit of a lottery , all over the place with no consistency, and can have a profound effect on the final PBT figure.

If same impairment figure adopted in 23 as 22 PBT would have been 2.16Bn and not 1.9bn. H1 is 50mill and a case could be made for huge deterioration in commercial property values in last 9 months especially in office and retail.( Blanchardstown SC for sale at 600mill and sold some years ago well above 1 Bn - relatively modern Office block on quays sold few years ago for 65mill now being offered at 38mill ).

Most interesting comment for me today was the reference to share buy back and the distribution linkage to cet1 >14% with current figure at 15.4%. imo this is linked to Davy's buy back predictions of almost 2 Bn over next 3 years. remains to be seen if increased div distribution could replace share bb down the road.

Cuckoo,

agree that 23 div of 60c now historic. Also that 35c interim div applies to f/y 24. Notwithstanding that, dividend receivable in in 2024 shall total 95c which is remarkable for the same calendar year. While it is not a hard and fast rule interim and final divs generally paid in same calendar year, especially when financial yr ends 31 december. So final div for f/y 24 shall be c 30c or less, payable in June 25, which will be remarkable as I have never known a final div to be less than an interim one. The ratio is generally 1/3 for interim and 2/3 for final. The end result is that s/holders will receive 95c div in 24 and 63/64c div in 25. Perhaps BIRG may pay out a final div of 40c in June 25 and an interim of 24c in november 25. Historicall I believe the interim would be payable in march/april and final in august/sept.

Doomster,

The Boo now down at 32p.! Ryanair or Nvidia is the least of your troubles.

Do you believe the RCF negotiation is behind their latest woes. I understandthe current RCF is unsecured . Just wondering if the bankers will now insist on secured lending to cover the risk !

If these negotiations are inconclusive do you believe the BOD of Boohoo WILL HAVE TO RESORT to your favourite term - RIGHTS ISSUE. What do you think the prevailing RI Price will be - would it carry the same DISCOUNT of your beloved RR in which case the boo RI sp might be 12/14P. Mind you it begs the question - will shareholders be prepared to invest at EVEN SUCH A PRICE.

Joeoh,

Interim Div = 352mill = 40% of PAT which means PAT figure = 880mill..A H2 repeat of H1 gives a PAT figure of 1760 mill for full year. which would be well in excess of PAT for 2023. The impairment figures adopted are distorting the PBT figures for both years. In 2022 Impairment = 138mill ; in 23 = 403mill; in H1 = 50mill !!. They are all over the place and imo are being massaged for whatever reason.

The comments on divs and share bb distribution going forward in guidance with CET1 > 14% ,with current CET at 15.4% very interesting. If Davy bb prediction come to pass s/h base could drop below 850mill in coming 2/3 years.