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I imagine approval for the well will not take much time however we also have to consider the oil price: “It is expected that the well will be drilled in Q3 2020, subject to a stabilised oil price (above US$35 for a sustained period) and operating environment. The well will be fully funded by that third party in return for a share of the production from Saffron 2,” Koot said.
I assume that the outlook for oil will favourable and the well can be drilled soon. From the CERP timeline in their presentation it should take about 6 weeks to drill - less if the lessons learned from Saffron 1 are incorporated into the well design.
Hopefully we will get some log results around July 10th - this is just a guess of course.

Thanks Bamps21 - Maybe if they use larger ID casing above the fault maybe they can run an additional short string across the fault zone to isolate it better - but of course the drilling manager would have all the required information for the proper well design not myself.

Usually the well plan would be to probably use larger casing size set and cemented just above the fault in a good solid formation, then test the wells integrity and if OK then drill through the fault zone with heavier mud. This sort of approach leaves a minimum of open hole in the around the fault zone and therefore a better chance of success.

My assumption would be Saffron 2 will be drilled whatever the results from the MC tests, and assuming we get to TD on Saffron 2 and the test results confirm the commercial viability of the LC; a field development plan (FDP) would be finalised and finance arranged. I would imagine some MC development wells would be drilled while approvals and finance were being arranged - but this is just my guess and it could be off the mark.

In general if a well has distinct sets of zones with different properties (40api and 20api oil), then the usual plan is to produce from the lower zone until that peters out and then plug back and produce the upper zones. However with the big difference in depths and costs between the MC and LC producing formations separate wells are a better and cheaper alternative - given the tough drilling and much higher costs to get to the LC. So cheap easy shallower MC wells producing via larger casing sizes, and more costly deeper and difficult wells for the LC producing from smaller casing sizes (two different well designs) and if the deeper wells bypass MC zones these can be produced later.

Usually an extended well test gives information on the wells productivity along with bottom hole pressures and and wellhead flow rates and pressures etc., and these measurements are used to adjust the wellhead choke for optimum well production.

In my opinion Blue Prism will be relatively immune to the Covid-19 situation because of its strategy and business model - but we will know more on June 18th when we get the Interim 2020 Earnings Release.

Here is the link https://www.blueprism.com/news/nhs-adopts-blue-prisms-cloud-based-digital-workforce-to-accelerate-change-and-respond-to-covid-19/

"NHS adopts Blue Prism's Cloud-Based Digital Workforce to Accelerate Change and Respond to COVID-19
Blue Prism Cloud Equips Trusts with Foundation for Sustainable Transformation"

Bamps21 - many thanks for the additional information - fingers crossed for good flow rates from Saffron-2.

I assumed the graphic on page 9 is oriented easy west but now I think it is north south.

From the April 2020 update by CERP regarding the lower Cruse discovery: -

I note because of drilling problems a smaller contingency liner had to be run which CERP were unable to cement properly, and so the completion of the well was compromised - and as a result the flow rates were not representative of the wells true potential.
The well design for the next Saffron well will no doubt incorporate the lessons learned from Saffron-1 with a 7" cemented liner to test the Lower Cruse. This should allow proper testing and representative flow rates to be obtained for the Lower Cruse. I am not sure of the size of the Lower Cruse target reservoir but from page 9 it seems to be over 4km east to west and extends under the sea. So there is plenty of acreage for new wells onshore, and I imagine after the Saffron-2 appraisal development well, the FDP will be in stages depending on the oil price and available funding.
The discovery will transform the company so Interesting days ahead for CERP investors.

Hi Bamps21 - I read the report - it has all then information I required - thanks.

Hi Bamps21 - OK I will read the presentation for more information.

Lanceygeo - of course estimated oil in place and produceable oil are not the same thing, and any zone could be wet or dry instead of oil.

I have no information except from a recent post that there is water also in the tested zone.
I would prefer to see a production test which would provide better information by investigating deeper into the formation by flowing the well for a longer period.
It could be that if this zone/s has a high water cut then a free water knockout would be required and maybe production by an ESP later.

Hi Wailun_90,
my question is this - is there a local market for the produced oil and refining capacity to take all the projected production?

Although no test production volumes were given the light oil from the lower zone could be co-mingled with the heavier oil from the upper zone to give a more attractive medium blend for production.

No I am not crazy - I based my opinion on the fact that Blue Prism's operations are based online which is a growing trend during this Covid-19 plague, and their income is from their licenses not day to day sales. To me this would probably mean slower growth and maybe static revenue until mid year - but who can tell for sure what will happen?

The Covid-19 situation looking forward is still uncertain, but the sentiment in general seems to be improving for Europe. Hopefully the much talked about plateau will arrive soon and a recovery is then on the cards which will be very good news for investors.