It would depend on how long poo is at $100, and how much of our production is being sold at this price - 70% of production is hedged, but how much is hedged at a ceiling price ?
SLT, good point, and in the future it looks like it will 'bail ins' for the struggling banks. As for poo, the last I saw was that TLW had hedged 70% of production - how much of this has a ceiling below $70 ?
The market is forward looking and most of the good news was expected. The fact that Kenya was being reworked, strongly indicated that the new valuation was going to be higher than the previous one. And we had the unjustified rise in the days before the update. Some on this board predicted this.
Deeko, I see your point, but about a year ago the SP increased by around 17% in a day for no obvious reason, and the following day good news dropped and the SP hardly moved.
I mentioned on here recently - that if the SP moves without justification it could be due to 'leaky news' either good or bad. Kenya news is key for me.
In the last 18months we have seen significant price movement the day before good news was released - will be interesting to see what happens in the few days before Kenya news is released.