Position19 Oct 2019 16:38
If you want to practice your investment skills/-analysis, this share and now is the time. The current position doesn’t rely on finding minerals or getting a mega elusive contract- the game has been set and the poker game has begun.
First. If your worried about the 2x 1 m trades, just look at the steep vertical intraday graph pre and post times of the trades. At worst they are transfers, most likely buys and at best sells that illustrate the free float is running on fumes. Yep, sounds wierd, but with recent TRa and 8.3s point to around 3m available.
Of course , you will see bid trades but some will be fake/ neutral but made to influence trading. Which makes me come to the crux- the real value of BRY as a company and the resulting likely offer in the light of value to a buyer and market phycology.
I have crunched the numbers and come with a fair value, neither excessive or low at 72p, hence fair. But therein lies the dilemma- gold, houses, oil are ubiquitous and value can be easily determined. Companies are bespoke with limited buyers so there’s no market as such. So you have to get into the head of buyers and ask how much is it worth to them ( then apply a discount if there are no other interested parties).
Best lesson in my life was a negotiation tactic course .
It involved us play acting - two peeps given a card with their position with regard to an old car that was for sale.
The buyer was told he’d been looking for this opp for ages as there were few around and so getting spare parts for his working car was virtually impossible so he was prepared to pay £3000.
The other was told he had to get rid of it at any cost as the rented garage it was in was costing him £300 a year and was a waste.
The poor second person made the first opening offer, when asked how much he said £200 thinking that’s good and the first man said yes !!
Now , opening offers for a bespoke asset mean little esp when the offeree admits they can go higher. I’ve gone on record that 50% of fair value will be achieved especially with the post offer stake building but you have to decide and assess the quality of earnings ( recurring - there’s the clue) and GP( another) and the benefit to an acquisitor’s existing operations.
Good luck all; time to see if your business acumen rather than luck can make you some dosh .
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