Member Info for jimtheknow

I think ‘coming months’ probably refers to a period of c. 6m. What I would add though is that I can easily see how a lot of basics of locating a rig can and will be discussed with potential suitors prior to any announcement. For example, the discussion with ‘x’ major might be ‘if you were to bring a drill rig what would be your plan for; timeline, EMP, Safety Case, etc?’ Same would happen with ‘y’ major, and so on. An EMP is a required component for the Environmental Authorisation process, along with EIA, etc. This is stipulated in the Petroleum Regulations. My guess is this would leave just the detail around logistics, materials, etc to sort in the run up to drilling. Given that the GoB would appear to know more than we do I’d say it is quite possible that certain proprietary documents and processes from a major have been floated by them to ascertain levels of acceptability. The Attorney General is not an oil man and he may not quite have understood exactly what he was talking about and his comments were inappropriate. The fact it has probably got that far behind the scenes with the GoB is very encouraging, it demonstrates we have very serious suitors.

On the question of chronology of placing shenanigans, the March presentation gives a date of 28th Feb with a market cap of $70m when making its case. They obviously chose to take their opportunity and strike while the iron was hot.

We need to be clear about something here, the Attorney General knew nothing about the placing. Anyone who thinks that is from the school if David Ike. Yes, we can all speculate on the chronology of when a placing was dreamed up and then enacted upon, but there was no collusion with the Bahamas Government to pump for the purposes of a placing. Yes I can hear all the conspiracy people now laughing at me, calling me a fool but unfortunately the world is a little less boring than all that. Yes, the twin towers fell over due to metal fatigue from an intense fire after some jumbo jets hit them, the towers weren’t rigged with explosives. The timing of the AG’s comments were unfortunate and inappropriate and the company will be furious about it. Why the placing? We obviously must have needed the money that’s for sure but why after the prior RNS which stated we were fully funded? My guess is this, we were ‘fully funded’ when the situation was our licenses expired summer 2019. A few people expected money in hand divided by burn rate to see us to this point. With an extension on licenses the goalposts moved and created a shortfall - simple. The March 2019 investor presentation appears to be quite clearly depicting a well on the time line to be drilled in 2020, there doesn’t spear to be any secret on this. The question remains about how accurate the AG’s coments were that we have an agreement with a major and he is confident of a drill. My feeling is we could very well be in the latter stages of discussion with parties but unfortunately, with a well scheduled for 2020, any news on revealing a partner is not imminent. However, I do believe it will happen this year (late summer possibly) and we will drill next year.

Personally, I think this is the bottom now unless there’s a release of bad news. On the balance of what skeletons could possibly be left in the closet, it’s difficult to see what could be left. Only boredom and lack of patience from investors will trickle it lower but they do that at significant risk as we could get good news at any time.

For those who are well rounded and versed in the ways of AIM and have the patience and intellect to be able to listen and take on all points and arrive at rational meanings without the need to knee jerk and rush, today’s placing is disappointing for one reason and one reason only. Today’s placing flew in the face of a previous RNS that stated the Company were funded to complete well financing options. This shows terribly bad judgment in both the way the company is managed and the regulated words it has previously put out - this is poor. However we should remember some key facts and we should base our judgement on BPC on these. BPC generally has no revenue stream other than to raise cash through issue of shares, the Exclusivity was a striking exception to this. No one should really be surprised by an AIM company raising funds, this is often the norm. Unless some high net worth individual(s) has a hard on for a company and is sat waiting in the wings, no one is going to raise several million pounds in the drop of a hat, it is something that will take weeks to broker by agreeing a common price to several takers e.g. all the share dealing houses. These are what the last lot of filings were for in the IoM for those who didn’t check, it was just tranches of shares to H&L, ‘x’ Securities, etc. Exactly 15 days ago, before the AG made his comments the SP was circa 1.8p and immediately prior to that it was in the lower 1p’s. Unless we have viagra man floating around, which unfortunately I don’t think we have, this deal is likely to have been brokered around the time of our extension RNS, over a number of weeks at a common price relative to that time. The Company must be furious by the GoB ‘leak’ as they must know what will happen on a day like today for a placing already in the latter stages of birth. A leak they had no control of. Without this leak we’d have still been bobbling around 1.8p area. Prior to leak this placing price would seem good, appropriate and also the comparatively modest volume of placing (~7%) at a time prior to any leak with no real news, would appear good business. What were BPC going to do, go back to subscribers and ask for 30% more? We may have needed this money quickly to demonstrate to suitors we have the means to raise as a tactic, etc, etc? Today’s placing is only bad because of the leak, otherwise it sends out a strong message when viewed in context of 2019 so far. The game is still very much on. Very much. And with that leak it feels like someone got a steal. I think that 6.3m £111k was a buy as people who know see this as an opportunity. It’s how the rich get richer.

Trek, exactly. I can live with the disappointment of losing my stake, however, throwing away an opportunity to make many multiples of my stake should it come off would be a difficult pill to swallow. I’m here till we get the answer on whether a drill will happen and as always, I’m only in as deep as what I’m prepared to lose. GLALTH

Disappointed with that. Not sure though where the comparisons may be as I have certain filters applied.

I’d take Malcy’s 80:20 split all day long and always would have, that would have been a very good split in my view for a company that has little bargaining power. Malcy made one of his usual smug like comments the other week saying he knew who the major was. He is also quick to put the boot into BPC. He does seem to give himself a ladder to climb down in his latest blog if they do pull it off, almost as if even he thinks there’s a chance. Not like him. Wonder how he came to know who it was, wonder if he knows they’ve returned? He is a bit of an ‘i told you so’ type of chap. After all, correctly commentating and spotting those left field possibilities is part of why he does what he does. Predicting this one right would be a coup for his cv with all the uncertainty and time that has come to pass.

HoD, totally see where you’re coming from. There are things though that have upped the burn rate which disappointingly have not been transparent from the company. The $200k required to GoB in 2018 (last page of March presentation) was a surprise to me and other than know they are ‘incentivised’ to conclude a deal, we don’t know MQ’s overheads. I am puzzled as to timing of this, I always expected a placing but thought that would come on back of much more positive news, a farm in being the holy grail of good news. I also didn’t expect the coffers to be that low at this point in time to require it and maybe they weren’t, my thinking was something around Q4 May have been required. Maybe anyone at the table did a quick burnrate calc and although we had the licenses boxed off, they were hoping our hands might have been forced from a bankruptcy scenario. This certainly removes that risk. There are no more questions now for me other than whether the appetite is out there from a major to drill. The question to ask is, from Jan to mid Feb, would you have been happy with an SP around 1.8p. We are now in that position but we now know the answer to financial security, licenses security and political will of GoB. When we raised early in the Exclusivity people weren’t happy, we went on to better things. Some say the major left and they constructed valid reasons why that may have been. Some of the big reasons put forward at the time are now answered. If people don’t believe in our geology then they shouldn’t be here at all. Same probably applies to BoD. Why invest in a company where these boxes aren’t ticked? The political will is now clearly resolved and so is license. This is a good starting position now for a charge to the death - or the moon!

The placing is disappointing, along with BPC’s rhetoric over recent times - what’s new? However, we are now around the same price as just before the AG’s comments but with one vital difference. We are now financially rick solid until there would be no time left to drill. With the licenses secured and money in the bank to see us through till the end, whatever end that may be, we cannot now be bullied into failure, backdoor shenanigans or bankruptcy by any player at the negotiating table. This is it now till the end, there are no more uncertainties or blockers on the BPC or GoB side of the fence. It’s for someone to get off the pot now and take the bait, if they ever do. That’s the binary outcome. I feel the Attorney General, Environment Minister and Deputy PM can’t all have said the wrong thing in such a coordinated way. We’re in as strong a position as ever right now, probably more than we have ever been. Sentiment is bad today and that is understandable, but we are not in a bad place - far from it. It’s coming.

Spike, stop being silly and over exaggerating it. We now have 1.68bn shares in circulation, this won’t change the target price should deal be announced and we know now for certain that is it with regards placing until the company either gets a partner or loses licenses in Dec 2020. The path ahead is now clear for this binary outcome. This changes little.

Quite possible.

If anyone is in any doubt as to whether we now have the full backing and political will of the Bahamas government then they only need read the Attorney Generals comments from February. A man of his profession and stature could not make the comments he made without exposing the country to serious legal action if BPC were prevented from drilling in any shape or form, regardless of any environmental objections. He said the government had told, ordered in fact, BPC not to do anything and that the Bahamas would face severe damages if they did not allow them to drill. He knew exactly what he was doing when he made those comments publicly and that it would force everyone’s hand to make it happen. An AG could hardly make a case for saying he didn’t know what he was talking about and it was a mistake. Carl Bethal (the AG) is a known proponent of oil drilling as he sees and understands the difference it can make to the countries economy, in April 2018 he addressed the Senate saying time was limited to benefit from oil revenue and urged them to push on. I think he’s simply had enough and has now forced the situation. With the very recent announcement on new power generation and turbines from Wartsila which are multi fuel and can move to LNG. The MoU with Shell for further power and LNG bunkering and offloading facilitates, the many cruise ships visiting the area which all run on LNG.... this is a government not only trying to diversify its revenue with new income streams but also supporting its existing others. The Environment Minister making statements to press, same again from Deputy Prime Minister. This is no coincidence. All the pieces of the jigsaw are coming together, the information is coming out drip, drip, drip.... It’s getting to the point where people will say with hindsight it was obvious a deal was coming. We may not hear something as soon as we’d like but it’s coming, we’re not far away now. GLALTH

PoC, has concur. At 13:22 today 3.2 would have been considered a buy, it’s even possible to look at today’s intraday trend and see the kick up when this when through, a trade of such size would undoubtedly seen a little dip. Price then went on to climb to 3.38 post this trade then dipped at 14:05. Seem to recall there being a reasonable wide spread at the time, 0.3 was it????

Anyone think it plausible a drilling rig could be being readied and mobilised by a big player prior to any partnership announcement? I would have thought minimising time between any announcement and drill would be beneficial for all parties. We are supposed to be ‘drill ready’ and the outcome of any drill could be known by time any eco activitists crawl out from under their hessian sacks. Possibly by a drill ship from Seadrill, which I believe was at least once based and headquartered out of Bermuda, if not still is? Is this what the AG meant by having “already commissioned” with a major oil company?

I think Anadarko may have some slice of the pie.

Only 17 more working days left on Mr Potters contract. What will we get first, the RNS for his contract extension or one which confirms a farm-in? Last year his renewal notice came through a couple of weeks before. So.... For a bit of fun you could look at what might happen in a few different ways: 1) We are locked in showdown talks and we need continuity to the end and more. This scenario would see a contract renewal only, and a deal happening this year. Mr P then oversees getting the drill bit in the sweet spot he’s been focussed on for 8yrs and confirms the 22bn barrels. 2) A deal is done but BPC no longer requires Mr P going forward. This might mean a deal is announced before his contract is up (within 17 days), he gets his share bonus and then he leaves end of March and is not bound by any rules on notifications of selling his bumper share pot. He could then cash in 5 million shares in April of his pot @ 20p per share, netting a cool 1 million. He can then sit with his broker to plan his strategy to dump the other 65+m as the anticipation and share price climbs. 3) His contract isn’t renewed as punishment for letting the major off the hook, no deal is done. We drift on forever, aimlessly. 4) His contract is renewed as punishment for us breathing, no deal is done. We drift on forever, aimlessly. I like number 2. Whatever it is we are definitely getting an RNS on his contract within 17 days and more likely, before the end of next week. Let’s gets this done BPC as we must be close now to breaking market rules on information. It’s getting like a celebrity court injunction preventing publication of compromising material. We need that little porridge gobbler to do his next podcast from the Commons chamber in Parliament.

I’m definitely a glass half full man on this and have been since I called the joint venture possibility not long after the Cessation RNS when others were full of doom & gloom. Look back at my posts if you have any doubt, I’ve called this for a very long time. For as much as I do see this as a very positive position we are in, more so than when we were in Exclusivity, we do have to remember how the Bahamas Government has a reputation for cocking things right up. Just look at the way Oban has been dealt, it seems almost impossible that will go ahead now after a very public MoU. Although we are much more legally tight and sure than Oban ever was, a big thing that scuppered Oban was the lack of transparency in the whole process and that still continues with that project to this day. The jungle drums are saying the same again about us. It isn’t quite the same for us as I think we’re immensely more credible than the fly-by-night Oban outfit and we have been in the scene c. 10yrs, the public probably won’t knoe this though and we’ll be tarred with same brush as Oban. As always, only invest what you can afford and to lose, this is not a done deal - yet.

I wonder if the recent government gaffes have been intentionally done to serve a purpose for a favoured partner? As we all know Shell have a big presence in the Bahamas with a couple of key projects agreed to go ahead there. I wonder if Shell have a done and dusted offer on the table they want BPC to take but BPC are still at the table with multiple parties working a counter offer. The Attorney General may have been speaking of Shell’s offer and trying to rush BPC into taking this? The whole process is starting to fall foul of market rules in putting info out there to the public. BPC surely can’t stay quiet for much longer, although they are very good at that :-)

The drill may not happen until late this year or early next year but it’s difficult to see how a partner and plans to drill won’t be released very soon. It’s become a very leaky ship now hasn’t it.