Member Info for jimtheknow

Harry, I understand your point of view but I don’t agree on your timeline, there’s plenty of time to play out yet. If it wasn’t for that March fund raise I am absolutely 100% certain this share would still be above 3p after what the Attorney General said and yet we find ourselves a little despondent when really we probably need to more positive. Before the Attorney General said he knew who the interested partner was, but could not say and he said he had every confidence BPC will drill this time, we had question marks hanging over us on license end date and then money left to see us through. As we know those concerns are gone so the only thing left now is a partner(s). There’s no risk of us going under for any other reason, there is a good degree of security in that respect. We may find a partner, we may not, that has always been the gamble, nothing has ever changed with that. After what the AG said, then the Environment Minister the day after, then the Deputy Prime Minister..... if it wasn’t for that placing and subsequent hit on the SP to align it with that price I feel the mood would be significantly different. Yet we are stronger now. The power of sentiment.

Harry, it’ll take no more than 90 days to drill a well. Granted it’s not going to be 31st Dec 2020 minus 90, but to say it’s over in June 2019, with what would be just over 1 & half years of license left to run, is being a touch pessimistic. There are also other regional factors to consider as well, not in Bahamian waters but very close by, that are expected to play out in 2019. These may, or may not, add further impetus to BPC’s quest. We’re only a month on since the fund raise and only about 1 & half months on from the Attorney Generals significant words, that were followed up by the Environment Minister. I know it’s torturous playing the waiting game and I long for it to change, like most I just want an answer now good or bad. The game is still very much alive though for the foreseeable. If ever in doubt just read the Nassau Guardian article again and hopefully that’ll inject a bit more stamina. GLALTH. DYOR.

The March investor presentation said 6 - 12m for potential farm in upside, that would mean things aren’t expected to happen in anger until about August. You might end up feeling an opportunity was missed if you sell up in June. I think if we get to December with no deal then we might have a cliff edge in sight, but not quite be looking over it.

The answer to this is what we all want to know I guess. I think if we go on what we know, that being the intention is for BPC to drill in 2020 as per what is in their March investor presentation, then it depends on who the partner is I’m guessing. A big oil player may already have a rig under contract with options to move to an as yet unspecified location. Said big oil player would likely have deep pockets and therefore not be phased by any duration extension resulting from bad weather in hurricane season. A scenario like this could mean a drop dead date all the way to early 2020. An independent oil company, with less weight behind them may need something a bit more structured and planned. Such a company may require longer lead times, finite dates and durations. I think what we can say is the longer it’s left, the number of suitors reduces and our multi party negotiations and negotiating hand weakens. Not that it is particularly strong anyway.

Harry, I think you may misunderstand some of the technical aspects and terminology of oil exploration. It’s obviously not a straight forward subject but by simply encountering oil on a drill does not mean we have an oil resource down there, as daft as that sounds. To allow BPC to say it had an oil resource it would have to say it not only encountered oil but the geology was also favourable to allow extraction. This is not the only factor. We would then start to hear about what was Proven reserves, Unproven reserves, etc, etc, etc. Even above ground issues can sometimes be factored into being able to make a claim to Proven reserves. It is essentially all about what oil can be produced. If you can’t get at it and produce it because of below ground issues like poor formation, porosity, or above ground issues like political blockers, it’s not a resource that can be drawn down on. Therefore there is no resource. We haven’t even got through all the beaucracy (political/regulatory/financial/commercial) of drilling a well yet never mind proving we have a working hydrocarbon system that contains recoverable quantities of oil. If all these boxes aren’t ticked it’ll sit there for another million years - literally. We need to drill and the potential prize is huge, a prize that could literally change the fortunes of an entire nation. These structures are truly massive, far bigger than most of the things oil companies generally chase in GoM. This week Equinor have put out a couple of press releases on some wildcat wells in the Barents Sea where even though they encountered hydrocarbons during drilling (formation gas) there was ultimately nothing there and they declared the wells dry.

I’m definitely a glass half full on BPC’s outlook but I believe in balanced posts. It would appear someone took offence to my suggestion there may be the makings of a P&D going on and those posts have now been removed. Just to be clear to help inform any newbies who may decide to dip their toe in the BPC water. As yet we have no oil resources, not a drop. We have the exploration license to some offshore assets that contain underwater structures that resemble some of the biggest ever found in the Middle East. The volume of these structures indicate potential billion barrel formations. However, those formations may contain oil, gas, water or dust. We’ll only know once they’re drilled, which the Attorney General of the Bahamas is saying will surely now happen, but getting this drill to happen is the enormous challenge. We have no resources, not a single drop of black gold. This is still a very high risk, very high reward play. As always, careful of the Pump & Dump crew.

Will the Company go to the effort of letting us know this week who will be leading the company over the next 12 months at arguably the most important time ever in its existence, or, will we be in receipt of the usual contempt that is shown to us? It’s not too much to ask to let us know who’ll be running the company is it? It’s not really a secret is it? Surely this hasn’t been swooped up in another NDA has it! 3 days to do it.

No

Bryn, with SP no longer taking shares as part of his salary, AIM rules may not require any contract extension / renewal to be an RNS notifiable event.

My fear would be the Americans ‘help’ is just to provide a secure and cheap(er) source of fuel and energy. Unfortunately for us it’s no good to the Americans if The Bahamas becomes a self sustaining nation and a net exporter of energy, such a situation reduces America’s leverage in the region. Yes, the majority of tourists to the Bahamas are from the USA but Uncle Sam has limited influence on this. Short of imposing a Cuban style travel embargo which simply isn’t going to happen, the government can’t tell people where to go in holiday. US government policy has to focus on the things it can influence and it can influence big (oil) business. When Shell build the LNG facility America can export all the gas it requires, decreasing the weight of the argument for drilling in the Bahamas. I know this isn’t what I want to happen, nor what people want to hear about our prospects, but with the Bahamas only being a passenger in global superpower geopolitics, they may have very few choices.

The Americans are paranoid, almost to a point of it being diagnosed as a genuine illness, of Chinese encroachment into their ‘backyard’ but unfortunately the Americans took their eye off the ball on this a long time ago. The Chinese have invested billions of dollars in The Bahamas in recent years, the investment in the Baha Mar project dwarfs anything BPC require, even if it went to full field production development. There’s a lot of catching up for the US to do if that is their intent and there will be some casualties and big losers on that journey. Let’s hope we are not one.

The Trump thing is a tiny bit concerning, simply because nothing he ever touches comes out good. He is most definitely pro oil and pro business though, there is no question of that. I’m sure we’ll all be feverishly reading the news flows over the weekend to see what, if anything, came of it. I hope the leaders of the Caribbean nations remember though that Trump is only a temporary holder of that seat and he’s now over half way through his term with no guarantee of a 2nd. Nations economies and prosperity hinge on factors that play out over decades, not the length of some reality tv show.

But we were always told these were live documents and all the inaction pointed towards possible gaps in these documents, certainly in any EMP. I can see how an EIA could be completed without a known partner, I’ve read a few over the years. If we are now in the latter stages of discussions with a partner maybe some of these gaps are now filled? With a complete document now available the GoB now have something credible to engage B&V with?

I’d like this to be true and there is an element of plausibility to the theory but on the other hand it doesn’t make sense, more specifically the timing of the placing doesn’t make sense. If the major were waiting in the wings, why does it not just announce the deal after the license extension were granted and raise at a much higher SP? Even if the major didn’t sign in the next month we still had £1.3m in the bank on 28th Feb so that would have kept us going for a good few months, certainly enough time for BPC & major to sort contractual detail out with BPC safe in the knowledge a deal is in the bag. Especially given BPC and the major had 4 months of talks already. I’d love the theory to be right and proved wrong here but logic says we’re still a bit away yet. Potters contract RNS back end of this week. Major farm in RNS to follow after.

Also, and this is one of the more intriguing parts of this process for me. The Bahamas Petroleum Regulations, Part 1, Section 4, Clause (e) states that an Environmental Authorisation application must “include the contents of the EIA and a corresponding EMP...” It’s difficult to see how any partner involved in a drilling operation would not contribute to an EMP. This to me would fit with how the Attorney General may have come to know something about what is going on. And it would fit a bit with maybe a partner recently getting their foot in the door and completing a part of the document we have always been told is a live document and this has kick started the GoB now bringing in B&V to complete a technical evaluation. Just my thoughts.

PoC, I take on board what you are saying but I wouldn’t overplay it too much that it’s an enormous undertaking. It doesn’t take too much research to know that there are GoM rigs Hot Stacked in US ports ready to be commissioned. This should only leave materials and a certain amount of logistics planning, this is not to be underestimated but this is bread and butter for these companies. A major will already have existing procedures that will need to be tailored to our requirements but there will be no reinventing of the wheel. Also, a major may exercise an option on an existing contract and move an already commissioned rig in field. Possible. I do think this will happen but it may not be imminent. News could drop anytime but it won’t be in next couple of weeks. Next RNS will be Potters contract.

Barn, I agree that farm in news is not imminent unfortunately, if nothing else simply because you can’t go cap in hand to the market then drop news that would sky rocket the SP shortly after. Not only would that be ethically wrong (I hear the laughing) but you’d just wait for the placing post news. I strongly believe a farm in deal will be done though, it’s just a time thing. My guess is around summer time.

I like the sound of all the bellow comments after mine, can’t disagree with much of it. Very good luck to everyone still holding here and are playing the long game. It’s been very very very hardwork but it feels not far away now.

The fund raise was nothing directly to do with drilling, it’s just for keeping the company going with its operational liabilities. We would need significantly more money to contribute to any drilling obligations and this would not be possible at these prices, post farm in announcement a raise could well be required. I now don’t believe the hurricane season is as big a factor as it was once made to be. Once a drill starts it’s always possible to suspend operations and if required move out of field. This just adds time on to any drill and therefore costs. It depends on the major, how deep their pockets are, their view on exposure risk, timelines, etc. The possibility of adding ‘x’ number of days onto a drill will no doubt be considered and how suspending operations also adds additional complexity and risk but it will not prohibit drilling. You have to ask yourself why would you if you don’t have to? You wouldn’t would you. The drill will be late 2019 or into 2020 now I think. A big part depends on the major. There are no doubt drilling rigs sat idle in GoM, one of the could be commissioned. However, majors often strike deals with drill rig operators for ‘x’ number of wells with options to extend. ExxonMobil have some in GoM now on drilling duty in field with other drills yet to be specified on the contract or with options for extra drills. Maybe a major will exercise one of the options on an existing contract, this feels more likely to me.

Lyn, I’m simply saying the AG is not an oil man and he is also not a BPC company man, he’s the countries top legal council - he’s a man of law. He will be privy to government goings on and his opinions and judgements have likely been sought throughout this whole process. On the other hand he’s not in the inner circle of any deal making, that is BPC and any third parties business, he therefore has no direct authority to speak on such matters. He also may not fully understand any subtleties in BPC working very closely with someone to satisfy Regulatory requirements and teasing out a framework agreement. When these are done maybe the major will sign? We know the GoB do not have spare cash sloshing around to spend on dead end causes so they will have had to internally approve any spending on B&V, they would not do this without a credible outcome. It’s a small government and cliquey community so the AG will be close to goings on so something probably is well developed (no pun intended). Whatever an AG says has gravity and he also knows what he is doing, if not the exact details of what he is talking about. As I have posted before, Carl Bethal is an outspoken proponent of drilling for oil, he has a good track recorded on this and wants to see it happen. My view is he was being a little cheeky in what he did and was knowingly sailing close to the wind. I think he is trying to move all this along and force a situation after years of inactivity on this front. We’ve always been told to read what is in any RNS and in the one put out for Media speculation I thought the words ‘as yet’ were a leading choice of words, to me it was as if something was essentially agreed in principle but not formalised. This might be what the AG is trying to cement, intentionally or unintentionally.