Member Info for jimtheknow

Bahamas government are more visibly embracing fossil fuel i.e. LNG, and not just the Shell deal. It’s all a bit slow but it does feel there is a step change taking place in the Bahamas with regards dragging the countries infrastructure forward, certainly something more akin to modern nations power generating capabilities. https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/06/03/firms-expressing-interest-in-providing-lng-fueling-solutions/

This article is an interesting read. Gives a bit of insight as to how things work behind the scenes in Bahamas and some of the dates of happenings in this saga may or may not coincide with the BPC Exclusivity period. Not saying Shell were the Exclusive company but it has been speculated they were. https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/05/24/shell-deal-cost-us-our-jobs/

PoC, I would tend to agree with your post about all blockers being removed but we don’t know for a fact we are in detailed negotiations that will come to anything or whether the company are playing with words by merely making a factual statement saying they are in discussions, if they call Mr Shell, Mr BP, etc once a month asking if they want to kick the tyres again then I guess this is true. Also, a lot think they are hiding behind NDA’s that only serve as an umbrella for activities previously gone, activities that are no longer active. The company treats us with contempt without doubt. Or, are you really Mike Proffitt and are the comments on this BB the only way to circumnavigate any NDA and give us a little nibble of what is going on?

PoC, a lot of us have all spoken to Ben over the years via phone or email, you are not gleaning anything new there. Ben appears to be a very nice person, he’s very upbeat, positive and very accommodating when it comes to giving up his time for people. However, he is a Company man and his rhetoric is of that nature. To be fair to Ben though he’s not afraid to say this is a binary bet, it will either come good or fail. Also, even though Ben may be a perfectly qualified and competent individual in his own right there are question marks that surround his appointment with shades of nepotism, just google Mike Proffitt, but surely you know this? He’s not an ‘outsider’ appointed from a vast list of other unknown suitable candidates, he was undoubtedly ‘known’ and has direct connections to those who’ve gone before him. The gravey train rarely comes off its tracks some would say. The credibility in what you say would immediately return if you really are Ben, which some have speculated, but that is certainly something you would not put out there. I think it’s highly unlikely you are Ben as he seems like a smart individual and wouldn’t jeopardise a lot of serious things, including a career, by commenting on this BB. I can’t imagine the FCA would think doing such a thing would be one of his best moves if he was. If Ben is the source of your confidence I’ll reiterate what I said earlier, listen to your own advice and pack up and move on. You’re absolutely wrong in not trying to find other sources of information and discrediting news outlets. For those that have followed this for years this is not a Company issue per se in getting this well drilled, it is it’s location and everything that that brings which is the problem. If structures like BPC’s were on the UKCS or any other established O&G play there’d have been a drill bit ran right through the heart of this by now but there obviously hasn’t and trying to find out what these blockers are is the puzzle we’re all trying to solve.

PoC, I still think you’re a little bit flakey if I’m honest, great sound bites and I’d love to believe you but you are low on substance and therefore credibility. You need to start supporting your claims and pointing us towards Company publications is not the answer as everyone knows. Show me a Company that says it doesn’t have a plan and they are unlikely to be successful when they are out to the market asking for money. One thing I can absolutely assure you of is I do one enormous amount reading and research on everything to do with the Bahamas and BPC looking for that crumb of information that may give the tiniest bit of insight as to whether we may be successful or not. I would also share my knowledge in a heartbeat for the greater good, it wouldn’t cross my mind not to put it on here as you seem to have an issue with. At some point everyday I usually read at least two Bahamian online publications cover to cover, this not only includes all the main subjects being reported but all letters to editors, etc. I read their government website and I usually read regional publications e.g. Jamaican, T&T, Florida, etc. I also make sure I’m as up to date as what I can be about Cuban prospects. Very little of what is significant that goes on in the Bahamas passes without me having an awareness of it. Im well versed in Bahamian Petroleum Regulations and I have read the (substantial) EIA submitted by the Company and any associated documents. I also search most well known industry publications not only for things that maybe directly related to BPC but greater regional and international goings on. I have no doubts I’m not the only one, Linton must also put some good effort in as well from seeing his posts in the past e.g. the AG comments which gave rise to the last rally. To tell me and probably others to read Company and government releases is a bit embarrassing and if that is the basis of your authorative, confident statements and is the only thing you base your investments decisions on then I think you need to take some of your own advice and sell up and move on. Come on, let’s have something at least reasonably substantive out of you.

PoC, I can’t knock your positivity but a broken clock is right twice a day. We’ve been here before though with you, you speak with a degree of authority and certainty but then fail to back it up with any facts or snippets of news. This just means they are your opinions and when we read baseless opinions passed off as facts we become tiresome and credibility is lost. By all means add to the party but give us something more than just your opinions, demonstrate that you’ve done some research or give us the examples of why you say things will come good. Do you really have that inside edge on information? One day you may be proved right and BPC may come good, however, as it stands I fear that will be for no other reason than your clock is broken....

Wonder in what context the US plan to partake in ‘collaboration’ with energy investment projects and how far this will extend? http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/may/21/minnis-holds-talks-us-investment-group/

After the PM address to the nation about subjects such as government energy policy?

Could those 20k buys that have been showing up just be people sorting their ISA out for this year? They may have sold either recent to those purchases or a while a ago and been monitoring the price to see the if they were going to get a better re entry price. I’d absolutely love them to be the first indicators of something bigger going on behind the scenes but I’ve been around too long now to start to blindly believe in leprechauns and fairies. That said, whether it be fresh money or recirculated money, people are still confident enough to put not insignificant sums into it at 2p. No one throws good money away. We will get this drill, eventually.

This is effectively what BPC have to organise now. Absolutely everything is in place for them e.g. license, regulations, government desire, oil price recovery, cash reserves to see them through to end of current license, etc. If they don’t it will be very embarrassing for those involved. And very infuriating for those who’ve been waiting for it.

People often talk of timeframes for drilling, especially with regards awarding of contracts, time to mobilise drill ships, etc. There is no immediate direct comparison out there to our new frontier play in a highly sensitive natural environment but maybe a recent example of where there are several similarities is the Otto Energy / Talos farm-in to the GoM Blulleit discovery. The farm-in deal for this was announced on March 29th, with Otto retaining a minority’s (16.67%) share in the play. The farm-in will see Talos as the Operator (50%) with the other 33% going to Enven. Talos are due to spud the well any day now with a drill ship that was already contracted to them, they had contracted the Noble Don Taylor in early November 2018. 42days expected drill time, comparable water depths to BPC. https://mobile.offshoreenergytoday.com/talos-set-to-spud-gulf-of-mexico-well-using-noble-drillship/

It’s true, the writing is on the wall for oil, a day willl come we (as a planet) will not factor it in as a major source of energy. However, for as much as our developed, usually rich Western nations, start this journey away from oil there is a good 65% of the world who are hooked on it for the foreseeable. It’s all well and good predicring the end of oil from a s****y office block in New York or London, not sure you’d get the same overwhelming answer from the equivalent people in Beijing or Delhi. If you need evidence the end of oil & gas is some way off just look at the investment levels in oil exploration equipment, (deep) sea drilling, floatels, FPSO’s, Tankers, onshore power stations, etc. The end of reliance on oil and gas is a lovely idea. It won’t significantly happen in the next 30yrs and as it gets less the price will go up for the commodities.

I’m very happy we have maintained the circa 2p status and I feel it is encouraging for the future, times in the recent past we have witnessed the dribble towards 1. I don’t though think we will move to a new range e.g. 3+, in the short term unless a snippet of news drops. I feel it is only the placing though that has dented our overall sentiment after the unprecedented news that came from senior Bahamian government officials saying they knew a major oil company was on the scene, who it was and that they were confident a drill would happen. Without the surprising placement I feel we would still be in the late 3’s to 4 region. With probably good volumes being traded. The frustrating agony of being in an information black hole continues I’m afraid. We all know should a deal be announced this will easy rerate to multiples of now.

I don’t know how much of this is of significance to BPC, if anything at all. It certainly doesnt go to the lowly levels of discussing nano cap O&G stocks. It may though give an insight into market sentiment on the appetite for O&G deals, new ventures, portfolios and acearace. I guess in some ways it’s like a housing market chain, that being one thing doesn’t move without something else moving, it’s about whether the industry is interested in maintaining a steady state or the appetite is there for growth and change. It’s a bit of a long read but it acknowledges Q1 2019 as being quiet in the industry with deals expected to start becoming more abundant in the remaining three quarters of the year. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/energy-utilities-mining/library/assets/pwc-energy-deals-day-q1-2019.pdf

The Cuba Block 9 drill from Melbana has been put on hold today. Melbana terminated the farm-in aspect of their contact with the Chinese drilling partner due to lack of sufficient progress in the timeframes agreed. However, Melbana still state a drilling rig will become available in country for use in the 2H this year. What’s funny about it is Melbana have said they are now opening it up to other third parties who were interested previously. Sound familiar.

Now that the Trump administration have just accepted the National Outer Continental Shelf O&G leasing program has been put on hold indefinitely, I wonder if any O&G companies will take positions to explore areas immediately adjacent to American waters? This ruling by the American courts and now the acceptance by Trump that the ruling cannot be overturned for at least the next 5yrs might mean companies go for acreage in the Atlantic that is open for business, but still close to home? The Trump administration must have known there is appetite for Atlantic exploration otherwise they wouldn’t have been pushing for it. Trump must have been lobbied by the O&G industry to overturn the Obama ruling. https://mobile.offshoreenergytoday.com/u-s-interior-secretary-says-offshore-drilling-plan-on-hold-amid-court-setback/

It’s incredibly frustrating, the whole lack of any information is very difficult to fathom and it does make you think there are things going on that are simply out of BPC’s control and may be insurmountable. We are only a little over 5 weeks since the fund raise, which is hardly any time at all and although many will not like to hear this, something is likely only to happen when we get to around 6 months after placing. The company can’t go out cap in hand to the market and issue information saying they believed it could happen in 6 to 12m and then it come in in less than 2 months, unfortunately I feel it’s going to have to be closer to the 6. Personally I think today’s SP is still good value based on the Feb 28th RNS and what was said in Bahamas media at the time which forced this RNS. It’s always a risk/reward weighting game and we got to 7.8p last year on speculation of deal so I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume we will be a comfortable amount north of 10p on a deal. The price will always fluctuate up and down in short term as it gets traded but surely the greater trajectory will be tending upwards when money enters/returns as we approach/enter the 6 - 12m window. It takes hardly no volume pressure at all to move this SP because the majority of holders are locked in waiting for ‘that deal’.

Someone thinks there’s oil there and they after ours! Chinese Technology helps Cuba drill for oil http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2019-04/18/content_37459661.htm

Nothing will happen in April, or May for that matter.

....or at least happier?