Member Info for jimtheknow

IK, the regulatory frame works exists in the form of the Petroleum Regulations (2016) so no issues there. The projects have no real connection to each other at this stage either. Different story if one of them succeeds maybe.

My point was more aimed towards at how everything operates at a snails pace, that there is a lack of transparency for everything, nothing seems to pass without controversy.

The Oban situation has no bearing on BPC’s situation other than it involves the same intermediary, that being the government. It does give a feeling of sentiment though about this type of industry, which they appear to be for and that can’t be a bad thing.

Personally I think the Oban situation is such a farce and mini scandal with people pretending to be who they weren’t, signing others names on MoU and general credibility of Oban personnel it’ll never go anywhere, certainly not fast. Anyone who thinks the BPC board are shady characters just need to look at that bunch.

The Oban Energies thing still ticking over in the background.

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/jul/24/oban-weve-not-gone-away/

Trek, but that’s the point. As per the February ‘Media Speculation’ RNS they haven’t yet agreed “commercial” terms for a farm out. We have always been told by the Company to read exactly what is stated in an RNS. They don’t have a commercial farm-out agreement and therefore they don’t have to say anything. Anything else they can hide behind an NDA.

They could have quite easily agreed the technical aspects of any drill and the oil major could have “commissioned” the service provider and/or drilling materials vendor. This fits with what the Attorney General stated, which the ‘Media Speculation’ e-mail was trying to put the breaks on.

They are now just waiting for the weather and drilling vessel availability window to coincide, which will be Q1 2020.

Unless a leak occurs prior to that.

That should say ‘H1 2020’!

Unfortunately for us any announcement will be as close as possible to actual drilling, I can easy see how it could be as late as December or even January.

What’s for certain though is that the partner(s) who are going to carry BPC will need to be pressing the button on ordering drilling materials pretty soon if the desire is to drill in H2 2020, it’s around a 6m minimum lead time on this.

I strongly believe an agreement or understanding is in place but the officialities and legalities of a binding commercial agreement are being withheld to ensure a low profile and detract from any unwanted and unessessary attention which may thwart the process.

I’m guessing that by Winterbotham Trust Company championing the addition of the World Oil System Fund to the BISX then they must believe there is sufficient interest and acceptance from the populous who can put money through BISX, in oil and gas activities.

Also, I wonder if the World Oil System Fund would ever take a position in BPC? Probably not at the moment as there is no business, no end product or return on investment but should they announce a drill partner the case for investment may change?

https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/07/16/new-mutual-fund-lists-on-bisx/

As with everyone, we all crave good news, or any news for that matter. However, this single share trade rubbish that gets spouted on boards, or any other mystic number that people attach meaning to, is absolutely nonsense.

People who attach anything more to it other than the fact it is a single share that has been logged as traded, need to seek psychiatric help.

Laughable.

It takes approximately 2 - 3 weeks to cross the Atlantic under sail (sail not engine!). BPC’s mystery partner(s) has/have the drillling rig booked to start early January 2020. If the Rainbow Warrior (a wind powered sailing ship) remains moored around the Straits of Gibraltar I’m going to guess the BPC bombshell RNS will drop close to 20 December 2019, with drill results returned by mid April 2020.

All fun speculation on my part of course.

It wouldn’t surprise me, given that the drill will be in early 2020, that we will need to wait all the way until Nov or Dec for the deal news.

I think the drillship is booked already with materials now in the design / procurement process with all these costs being shouldered by the mystery partner at their own risk. I think all parties involved are pushing the absolute limits of reporting obligations by having informal ‘understandings’ but nothing leagally binding.

Everything will be worked out behind the scenes and then a button will be pressed and it’ll all happen in a flash to minimise outside influence. The ball will be firmly rolling with no way of stopping it.

These people aren’t stupid, they know exactly what coverage this will get in the press and the tide of resistance it will face.

There’ll be reporters stood next to pigs swimming in crystal clear waters questioning the morality of the project. The second news comes out the captain of the Rainbow Warrior will put down her cup of leaf tea and point it straight towards the Cuba / Bahamas maritime border and order full steam ahead! Whilst burning gallon upon gallon of chip fat fuel.

Make no mistake, a BPC deal will dressed up as the pinnacle of what is wrong with climate change and no big oil man with a sniff of a multi billion barrel potential will risk that at all.

But it will happen, the Bahamas Attorney General, Environment Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, all said so.

I hear what you say Trek and it’s all understandable but I think for those who have hung on this long with the incredible patients that takes, to reduce a position now with a view to buying back in is something that could be seriously regrettable. If moving out, to then move back in, was the game plan then that needed to be done in the months since February-March.

For those still here they must have a tiny ounce of belief this will happen and therefore you have to believe that the 6 - 12m window that was stated in the March presentation will be about right. We are now almost in that window.

I think politics and government policy is 100% what has held this back. It’s difficult for a government to express concerns on climate change, on an archipelago of islands that would suffer hugely from a 3m change in sea level and then openly promote oil exploration. However, nothing the Bahamas will do will prevent them from effects of climate change and it’d be better from them to try and manage that with a chest full of money rather than nothing.

I strongly believe the words of the Attorney General and then the Environment Minister and Deputy PM in March are the truth in that they have an oil major lined up and they will drill this time. Why would government officials say otherwise.

Any news on a deal will be announced as late as possible to the commencement of drilling to minimise the impact of those wanting to thwart the process. For timelines to spud, drill and get results I think we’ll see something like the Bulliet well by Talos Energy with BPC spud happening in Q1 2020.

I’m goibg to disagree with you there IK, I think it will be 5 months max. The big question, and further torment for any LTH’s will be is when to exit from this if anticipation does build in the run up? Taking guidance from the near 8p this sp got to during Exclusivity, that would indicate this share is comfortably good for something in the early to mid 10’s. Loose words from the Attorney General got it to 4p. Words I still believe to be accurate and true. However, look where Exclusivity ended up so there’s nothing guaranteed and a lot of us a worn down so thin with this. Would someone be happy walking away at 4p and live with themselves if it hit 16p????? I am more convinced than ever now though that those Attorney General words were correct back in February and he was repeating what will have been said to him when BPC were looking for the extension. “I have every confidence that they will drill...”

Degsy, Ironic.... what other crack pots have we had on here?

PI, I’m more confident than ever we will hear news before the year is out and the first well will get drilled in 2020. Who knows, it may not even be a one well drill campaign next year either.

Last years AGM was September, it’s possible, maybe not credible, that news is out before this years.

Molokai, I have to agree with spiritefan here. The P&D crew are a law to themselves and the herd mentality and FOMO fuels it. This company is that squeaky tight on information I’m not even sure the people in the same office talk to each other. On my earlier speculation on the drill ship, obviously there won’t be any ice near our well but an arctic spec ship is unlikely to need to put anything overboard like sewage, waste fluids, etc that a lot of ships do when on station. It should be self contained, good environmental credentials. Overkill on capabilities maybe, but strong on protecting the environment it’s operating in. P.S there’s no shorting going on with this share, it’s too illiquid, low price, vulnerable. I agree with your comment about this when taken in context to the greater markets, it seems there’s little interest now in investing in companies for what they do for the long term and it’s all about what anyone can get now, at any cost, low morals and ethics. A product of a parasitic society.

After years of over promising and failing to deliver you can’t help but feel they will be cautious on the dates they put out and it will be much better for them to under promise and over deliver. So, it would not be a complete surprise if something came out earlier. It is going to come though this time I feel. They are so tight on any news they release that it’s likeky going to come without warning, I can’t see this company being a leaky ship. I also feel like it’s possible the Stena Ice Max drill ship that was drilling off Cyprus which has been booked for an unnamed client for the first three months in January 2020, has as good a chance as any to be heading for Bahamian waters for that contract. Christmas period out the way, new year, hurricane season at a low point, plenty of time before next hurricane season starts, 6th generation rig with modern arctic environmental capabilities, probably over spec for this first BPC well so therefore comfortably within its capabilities for such a sensitive first outing in new frontier waters. Deep water drill ships don’t just become available at the click of a finger, something will need to be pencilled in soon. Even if the contract is non binding.

October, give or take a little, for the big RNS I’m going to guess. But i feel it will come, no endlessly hopelessly waiting this time.

I don’t think it’s as simple as that to do an equivalence to share price, linking the two is a much more complicated process and you’d need to factor in the asset value would be realised over time, it’s not an instantaneous thing. It’s value may also grow over time as well. However, the company can leverage an asset that has value in ways to move forward. They most certainly can’t leaverage nothing. It doesn’t seem beyond imagination that BPC couldn’t come to some sort of agreement where they can’t buy back a bigger percentage at a later date. You see a lot of farm-in deals going this way. They should relinquish 90% now with full free carry with an option to buy back up to say another 25%. They are never going to be the Operator here so let’s look at business models that actually work.

Some very very basic, worst case and overly simplified math. 10% retention. 250m barrels of recoverable oil. 20 pounds banked per barrel produced. 0.1 x 250m x 20 = 500m pound asset to BPC. Or, 50% of nothing = madness. Take your pick.

Page 22 (I) Future funding requirements. “...the Group will retain a significant equity interest in the licenses.” It’s a futile game of bluff for the Company to persevere with this strategy, if this really is their red line. Let’s just do a 90/10 split with full carry and get the ball rolling. If they need to limit farm-in share damage only do it for ‘x’ number of concessions.