Member Info for jimtheknow

Having followed this board today I think people so really read the Resolutions tabled for the AGM before writing about things they think they know.

One thing is clear in the AGM, for this to get through the first hurdle and be on the path to succeed the Company will need to demonstrate they have sufficient funds for 24 months working capital, note this is not well financing capital. We currently only have at least 12 months working capital. This gap will need to be closed before the Bizzell loan can be drawn upon.

People should not be surprised if a ‘small’ placing happens for working capital even though we are informed we are fully funded, the goal posts move under these proposals.

We’ve made the Nassau Guardian, the profile of this and news releases for the reminder of 2019 is only going to increase. It’ll be interesting to listen to the views of Bahamians now the certainty has increased.

https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/08/22/bpc-to-drill-well-with-or-without-farm-in-partner/

Ti, when it comes to offshore rig costs I’ve never understood why they were so far over inflated. I think a ‘bad’ day rate deal in the current climate for a drill ship would be $350k/day, some deals are coming in around half this. However, if we took this ‘bad’ rate, multiply it bad an over exaggeration long duration, say 60 days, that’s only c. $20m. Where on Earth that initial figure came from?????

Ti, I agree that a well and the ability to extend becomes a factor now for others, even though a very costly one for BPC. A drill of any sorts would mean the licenses could technically be put out of reach of any major for another 4yrs. This may also influence anyone’s thinking in putting in a sensible offer.

Obviously 500m shares at 2p bags them their other £10m, but that would just be a single well campaign and it looks like they want to go for the two.

Well we eventually got some news that we’ve craved and for the large part I see it as very positive. The risk is still high but we are a lot more credible now, if it weren’t for the fear of a potential big share placing we’d have kicked on more today.

Personally I wouldn’t see a big share placing as a total loss. We need to remember, farm in partner or n farm in partner, if we don’t find commercial oil it’s game over either way. No super major or national oil company protects us from that. So, what’s the real downside of another 75% shares in issue or a major taking 80%? At least with the dilution option we get to keep 100% of any find, that would be areal game changer.

It’s absolutely clear to me now that interested parties have only been willing to offer a low percentage and BPC have now clearly set the entry point at something closer to 50% and I suspect will settle for retaining something close to 40% to get their preferred outcome.

With all this positive news though it’s very easy to overlook our contemptuous boards attempt to protect themselves from any dilution and this is what they are proposing. It appears to me that in the resolutions they have put forward they will see themselves collect all of accrued deferred share options now, which I believe were previously contingent on successful financing and they have set up an incentive scheme for them to receive the same again as progress is made, this completely shields them from pursuing the dilution path should that occur. It leaves a bitter taste.

However, it is always better to have a part of something rather than all of nothing so let’s hope they make as big a success of that something and that’s better for everyone.

This obviously puts the ball back in any suitors court and it will make them think hard now on how much they really want it. I think an offer will come in now we can be taken seriously.

Good luck everyone and remember not to get too gready. This will happen now, just like the Attorney General said.

Looks like it’s going to be either the West Jupiter or West Neptune that drills it. Eventually the planets are aligning.

Looking good. Where will we go from here?

Here is the Deputy Prime Minister on record stating there is overwhelming support from the people of Grand Bahama for the Oban oil refinery.

https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/08/16/turnquest-despite-concerns-gb-wants-oban-energies-deal/

We must be pretty close to getting an RNS this week or next, if only to set date for AGM.

Bryn, I’m not sure there would be an obligation to inform us if the multiple party discussions ended, it’s not like there is anything firm on the table. If they didn’t treat their shareholders with utter contempt and had a bit of business acumen about them they would tell us but we all know the answer to that.

I still believe we will get some type of deal this year though but it is not going to be announced anytime soon, however, we’re now about in the window of when news is expected to come so it could very well happen at any time.

We just need to remember that the Bahamian government earlier this year had “every confidence” (their words) BPC would drill and that in country environmental factors are not favourable for drilling until at least November at the earliest. It’s not that hurricane season prevents drilling, it doesn’t, but a bad spell of inclement weather could temporarily suspend drilling and that adds unessary duration and cost. This is exactly what occurred when hurricane Barry impacted drilling at Bulliet for Talos & Otto. Otto’s share of costs were expected to be around 9m and the delays due to suspension and difficult down hole conditions are quoted as increasing this by another 6.5m - 7.5m. That’s an over 70pc increase.

Unfortunately I can’t see anything being completed before any AGM and I would be extremely surprised if anything of interest came out of the AGM, whenever that will be this year.

I believe the news people crave will go all the way to mid / late December, I simply don’t think the company will draw any unnecessary attention to itself unless it is in a position to act and we all know that will be in 2020.

On the positive side I see no reason why everything required to prepare for a drill, that being the supply of materials and vessels, could not happen outside of any announcement. I obviously don’t know this is happening only that I think it feasible. People often say something like this would need to be put in an RNS but while there is no commercial agreement in place between BPC and another party then I would say not. If another other party has accepted the technical aspects of the drill and was always going to shoulder the financial costs then these were liabilities they would have always incurred and therefore their exposure is minimal.

I think the Talos / Otto farm in on Bulleit is a reasonable example of how things could unfold; farm in announced late March, spudded late April, encouraging results encountered May.

Copy and pasted from EOG’s RNS. It would be nice if our board could do similar to this. It all sounds like a very similar situation.

As previously announced, we have negotiated farm-in agreements in respect of FEL 4/19, FEL 1/17 and FEL 3/13 with the NW Europe division of a major oil company (the ?Major?). Europa is in regular contact with the Major and continues to await a final investment decision from the Major?s head office. However, owing to the length of time it has taken to complete the farm-in agreement, we have continued to market the licences to other potential partners, resulting in a number of other major oil companies expressing an interest in farming in to FEL 4/19. We are focused on being in a position to drill Inishkea at the earliest opportunity and farmout discussions are ongoing with a number of parties, including the Major.

“We have negotiated farm in agreements... with a major oil company. However, we have continued to market the licenses to other potential partners.”

https://mobile.offshoreenergytoday.com/ireland-europa-oil-gas-converts-inishkea-into-frontier-exploration-license/

So that sort of thing does happen in the industry. Blows the theory of greedy oil companies wanting 100pc of the action out the water.

Deal incoming I think.

Some wise words Trek.

I still believe it’ll come good, just not in the time we’d all like.

Some of the big things for me are still the Attorney Generals words and also I think the extra month option that the major took cannot be ignored. An oil major does not elect to exercise an option for an additional month if its just about flogging a dead horse for a bit longer. They have the ability to call on highly paid industry experts who would have called this a day at the end of three months, but they didn’t.

We have also been told by the company to read the RNS’s exactly as they are and for me the one about not opting to continue to pay for Exclusivity is exactly that and they never walked.

My strong view now is the major was happy with what it viewed but it didn’t have a rig available in the immediate weather window and was not prepared to be held at short notice ransom to get one. This resulted there being a clash with license term, which required resolving. This is now resolved. The major is happy to share costs and risks when the next drilling window opens if another company is interested. The drill ship is booked. Drill strings and casing will be on order very soon. No commercial terms are agreed as Macquarie have until the next weather window to find another partner(s). If no one else interested by November/December they’ll seal the deal and drill Q1 2020.

Simple.

And wait for the little chunky buy later in the afternoon?

IK, I wasn’t accusing you of a potential P&D, just that someone could be building a position to attempt one.

IK, I would tend to say having taken a keen interest in this share for some time now it does appear there’s been a little a bit of strategic buying is going on recently. But I guess all buying is strategic in that it has the aim of making money.

We have seen so many times though over the years how this share is susceptible to a pump and dump and this is normally planned to occur around a time news is expected. Someone could well be building a pot for that very purpose now.

I can’t see a big single buy coming in though triggering one, surely everyone is on to that with this share now. Maybe a flurry of buys will be what try’s to trigger it this time?

We’re not even in the stated farm-out window yet as per the companies March statement, still a good month before that period opens. And no one ever does things early so any announcement is more likely to be mid to late term rather than earlier. Good few months left before this plays out.

PI, you sound like a right royal potato.

On a serious note. The horrible parasitic people you talk about were here in their droves during Exclusivity and will be back again given half a chance. Like a lot often say, you are dreaming if you think anything posted on here affects the share price and I almost 100pc agree with that. Their keyboard warrior efforts are therefore largely futile and that is comforting to know.

The exception to the rule is if you drop that little nugget of factual information like Linton did for the Attorney Generals comments. Those comments had been in Bahamas press for a reasonable time before word spread and the SP spiked, I think the post on BB’s got that press article noticed. The SP would probably still be a lot higher now if it wasn’t for the Media Speculation RNS and subsequent placing.

And if all else fails there’s always the filter button.