Member Info for jimtheknow

Obviously it has nothing directly to do with BPC but if you think environmentalists will not seize upon this and use it in their arguments, rightly or not, then you are naive.

BPC cite the Oban deal on their website as inroads and sentiment towards a hydrocarbon economy but by applying your logic then it would have “nothing to do with BPC”. You can’t pick and choose the bits you like and dislike from the Oil & Gas industry to suit your argument, they are all intrinsic to the subject and they most certainly are to any layman.

This is the type of thing I’m talking about....

https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/09/06/equinors-south-riding-point-facility-sustains-damage-to-oil-tanks/

Lint, fair enough I suppose. I did start it off by stating “I’m saying...”.

PoC, I’m not saying this is a lost cause, I’m saying it’s going to be a lot quieter, a lot lot quieter and there will be a resultant knock on effect to things like an undervaluation of the Company, resulting in potential larger placings and slippage in dates, etc. All this is understandable. No one can argue against the fact it is now much more difficult to do business in the Bahamas, either because of the additional pressure now placed on physical constraints like airports or bureaucracy as small and limited government cope. Anyone who dismisses these issues is a fool.

No company, or individual, is going to stick their head above the parapet and start lauding with enthusiasm the fortunes of quite frankly anything, until the full picture is known on Dorian. The mood is going to be somber for some time.

Aside from obtaining permits from a government which has a lot on its plate then yes, there are probably very few physical impediments to drilling caused by the hurricane but there is now an enormous public outpouring of emotion to manage and this will mean everyone is walking on eggshells for a good period to come.

Exactly. There is no appetite for drilling or this share now and won’t be for many many months until the full extent of the devastation is known.

A poster made a valid point about potential force majeure earlier in the week. Unless you are an emergency response organisation or fellow state offering help, no one will be speaking with the government about the trivial oil drilling situation. When a degree of business normality does return, whenever that may be, we may see such a thing happen or the internal pressure from anti drill lobbyists may become so intense as they associate the hurricane with climate change that we may see a suspension of any intended drilling activity regardless of the credibility of such a link.

This share is effectively suspended for the foreseeable future and that’s just the way it is.

After his country has just received a thumping from its worst hurricane on record the Bahamian Prime Minister has just lost his brother today. Poor man, sad and difficult times for him.

Seem to recall the last time we seen a drop on the day after some slightly positive news from the Company was when the placing happened. Feels like we are seeing the effects of people second guessing a placing again.

Today’s RNS would have probably had more credibility if they’d have been able to get someone independent to update the CoS based on this and not just had it coming direct from the Company.

Keith, you honestly believe the UK would have been a better place to live without discovering and transitioning to methane rich North Sea gas? Are you mad? You think the UK was better off on Town Gas? For those even fortunate enough to have it.

Some people still appear to have a level of ignorance on what has just happened. Talk of how BPC’s project could benefit the islands I feel is a little out of taste and most certainly premature at this moment.

Just to be clear BPC have absolutely nothing as yet, not a single drop of oil that will generate any revenue for the benefit of the Bahamian people. If the government were to go out and start telling its people at this desperate time ‘dont worry, we’ll rebuild everything on the back of oil’ and then for BPC to find no oil would be utterly irresponsible and be a further kick to a nation that would already be at a low point.

Building false hope is something I know the Company have been very mindful of and is one of the reasons they state for being so quiet.

Come on, less of the self centred outlook and most certainly while the effects on any loss of life still remains largely unknown.

I think we should all be mindful in the weeks ahead of the devastation caused by hurricane Dorian and possibly others to come, and how that will have ripped many people’s lives apart.

As anyone who has spent time reading Bahamian publications will tell you, these beautiful islands struggle with even the most basic electrical power requirements, life will only have got worse having been subjected to their biggest hurricane ever on record.

I genuinely wish these people well and hope they can rebuild their lives.

Bryn, I wasn’t in any way meaning to disparage any of your postings, I was only expressing my views on that Graham Weatherford. My take on him is that he’s a very strange individual and would be better off not having anything to do with him.

What I am certain of though is that there is no way he’ll go away or be quiet, etc.... He gets far too much air time in the Bahamas. I also suspect he is out for one thing and that is himself, however he dresses things up.

I’ve been keeping one eye on that Graham Weatherford now for well over a year and I can say this, he’s an absolute grade A prat. I have resisted posting anything about him to not give him any air time as nothing good comes from him. Ever.

And every time the SP climbs it strengthens BPC’s negotiating hand with the farm-in partners as it effectively reduces BPC’s potential equity exposure and drives a harder deal.

Since the last RNS my thinking was that the time up to the AGM would have been a little breathing space for a major or independent to consider their options but every day they see the SP climb it must hurt them and maybe we will see one of them step in and stop gradual erosion of their hand?

If we got to say the mid or late 4p’s by the AGM, which is very plausible, any farm in partner is definitely going to have to stump up for a 2 well program at or very near to a 50% deal.

It is good work by the board.

PoC, putting a farm out to one side for a bit as that is obviously a completely different route.

I think you’re missing my point a bit. BPC have requested permission to issue up to 1.8bn shares and they have stated in the RNS what this mean in respect to total potential dilution. They don’t have to issue the full 1.8bn as they only need to bring to the table roughly another £26/27m for a two well campaign. They would possibly need a touch more than this to cover the coupon costs of the loan, contingency for drilling, etc but I was just painting a rough picture.

It is not a given the full 1.8bn shares would be issued and that is important for people to understand. The 1.8hm, c. 50% dilution is a worst case, we may st remember that.

A stronger share price mitigates dilution.

IK, 14.7p pre drill on full potential dilution seems a touch optimistic, that would be a £500+m company without any proven reserves. Should we find anything commercial though, that being anything above 200 mmboe I have no doubts the SP will solidify comfortably in excess of a this with full dilution.

A big topic of discussion and uncertainty has been the fear of possible dilution should a farm in not happen. I have pulled together the following figures which I hope paints a rough picture of dilution and how this would scale back if we can achieve a higher price for any large placing.

Assumptions:

£10.25m Bizzel loan.
£26.65m required from placing for 2 well campaign.
£1 = $1.22
1693m shares in issue now.
1991m shares issued post AGM. Roughly 15% dilution.

Placing Price. Placing Shares. Dilution.
1.5p. 1775m. 51%
2p. 1332m. 44%
2.5p. 1065m. 38%
3p. 887m. 34%
3.5p. 761m. 31%
4p. 665m. 28%
4.5p. 591m. 26%
5p. 532m. 24%

This is just rough and is based on the declared issues shares of 1693m now, this number may have missed any warrants or options that could be exercised.

We will have roughly an immediate 15% dilution after AGM regardless of a placing for well financing.

If we could get shared away at 3p we would only see a dilution of around 34% from today’s value. That seems very good to get this show on the road on a two well campaign and retain 100% of the oil found.

Love to hear anyone’s thoughts on this? Am I close, way off the mark? I think it’s pretty near.

My point, dilution at the right price is not that scary.

Old, I would tend to disagree in what you say that it’s not a certainty BPC will drill. Obviously nothing in life is a certainty, there is no certainty I will wake up in the morning, but it’s highly likely that they will drill now and that I will wake up.

They may not drill on the best terms possible for us shareholders but unless something fundamentally drastic happens from nowhere e.g. another Deep Water Horizon, they will drill.

Although the EA has not yet been issued, it will. The requirements BPC must meet for this are already set out in Bahamian law so all the world leading parties that have signed up to drill have to do is follow this rule book. This is what these companies do for their day job so complying will be a formality. We must remember the EA is enshrined in law and is not issued on whimsical opinions, it took a long time for parliament to ratify the Petroleum Regulations.

If the farm out doesn’t happen then funding will come from a very large placing, how large that placing we will wait and see and it will depend on the strength of the SP at the time. Ironically, should the SP rally then the smaller the placing required, it’s a bit Catch 22 on this.

Something that’s also worth discussing are the differences in the constraints that were placed on the share price when entering Exclusivity and now. In Exclusivity the major paid 3m up front so the earliest we were ever going to get a decision was some time towards the end of month 3 but as we know they opted for an extra month at that point. There are no binding constraints this time so news could pop any time. Personally I think the most likely time will be between the AGM and 11th Oct.

BPC often reference the Exclusivity period as validation of the credentials and robustness of the project. This to me now is BPC saying a major made an offer, albeit an unacceptable one. They are prevented from saying more because of NDA.

I’m pretty sure this drill will happen now, the companies publicly named are too big for this to be a charade, this is serious now. We just need to wait and see on what terms it happens for us.

Good luck.

They were both buys. A sell at that point and of that volume would easily have had it in the 2.1’s, or lower. There were sells for much less volume in the 2.1’s around this time.

Possibly someone trying to initiate a P&D or some genuinely believing in the fundamentals and getting in. Who knows?

There are so many factors in play, both tangible and intangible, that predicting an SP is a bit of a futile process, however, in the interests of having a bit of fun....

If we were to use recent past history as a guide. Under Exclusivity we reached 7.8p which roughly equates to a market cap of £140m. Exclusivity was pure hype with nothing tangible; no drilling terms signed, no drilling window agreed, no equipment requisitioned. With these uncertainties now put to bed making any drill a reality now on provision of available funds im going to say these material, tangible concerns justify a slight premium on the previous market cap, this certainty would justify a £200m market cap.

Absolute worst case dilution is 3.9bn shares and for a £200m market cap this roughly equals 5.15p/share. This is my worst case guesstimate for a fully self funded drill.

Love to hear anyone’s thoughts on this. All a bit of fun remember but I guess you have to start somewhere.

Let’s face it, we’ve all got it with this share.

We are now back in exciting times though and within the next 12 weeks are likely to know the answers to most of the things we seek, BPC related that is.

I don’t expect any major news this week but there could quite easily be and that’s what makes it compelling. I expect Malcy to give his take on it this week and that will no doubt raise its profile again on people’s watch lists.

Stew, I highly suspect now that a low percentage offer was made and probably still stands and that BPC will consider that offer the worst possible position but could if required fall back to that. That obviously isn’t BPC’s plan though and they have ratcheted up their side of the negotiation somewhat, effectively calling the Exclusive majors bluff. I think the Exclusivity major is still around, just not on very appealing terms.