Member Info for jimtheknow

Bon, I think you raise a very good and valid point here about will the price be above current levels. A lot of people incentivised in this process do not have sub 2p exercise clauses, therefore, in my logic even post dilution the professionals at all levels see this being somewhere north of 2p.

Yes it may fluctuate lower than 2p for transient reasons, but over the longer game (6 - 9m) the professionals outlook is that of something much further north of this. I also hear people say well they just won’t exercise their options then but to me that is like assuming this project will cease completely, there will be no drill there will be no further license extensions and I do not subscribe to this way of thinking. I think a drill is guaranteed now, if nothing else just to satisfy the license commitments and what would be the point of that if there wasn’t a realistic chance of finding commercial oil?

The CEO has stated this morning that funds are available to ensure a drill happens, that is a fact of where this company is at.

For inward investors, and continued investors who want to supplement their position, it is more a question about greed now and deciding upon an entry point they are happy with, trying to squeeze that extra few percentage out of any investment. At some point though you have to siht or get off the pot (as Malcy would say). Wait too long and the opportunity may go and for what, an extra 15 - 25% more shares? If you can even get them?

It takes no volume at all to move this sp and when news breaks it won’t hang around.

So the company have finally gave a tiny bit of insight into the other funding options and stated that there are four and that if they chose this path it would cover the cost of a well. I realise this is likely to require BPC to out more skin in the game but it does mean (almost) certainty on a drill now I’d say, the CEO can’t just make something like that up for an RNS.

I’m quite happy with that as to me it means we’re going drilling next year, they just need to work hard to try and better any financial terms with sponsors in the interim period now. The baseline is set, let’s go drill. Find it less likely to believe there’ll be any delay to signing the Seadrill contract in October now.

Good luck everyone

And let’s face it as well, they aren’t going to be able to go out and raise a huge wedge of cash without a firmed up liability to spend it on.

Yes I hear the cry’s of it’s AIM and they are all crooks... if you think like that then why invest, ever.

With all the ups & downs, twists & turns that have accompanied this share it will not surprise me in the slightest if the route to financing drilling is a permutation of something that no one has yet mentioned.

I recall back in early 2018 people were expecting something to be announced to meet license commitments and the idea of submitting the Environmental Application had been muted as a first step into offshore drilling, and this happened, but no one saw Exclusivity coming a few weeks later.

A lot of people were then played like a fiddle by the major who obviously dangled the carrot so close you could virtually smell it, only for them to go lay the ultimate business sucker punch and pull it at the last second, hoping it would crush all hope and the company would crumble. This was a cruel and calculated blow by the major. It’s (big) business.

Well the Company came out fighting and amazingly these last few weeks have been some of the most promising this company has seen for a very long time and the board should be commended on this and respect given to claw it back from what seemed the brink.

The major thing weighing on this sp now is the fact people worry they may be able to pick up cheaper shares after a placing, or they will see any investment cut by said placing. These are genuine and understandable fears.

For me I think we need to be sensible and grown up here, there’s no way the company are going to issue 1.8bn shares. There may be a large placing in the (many) 100’s of millions but it simply isn’t going to be anywhere near the full potential dilution. Any placing will be in tranches at staged prices as well I’d say.

Prior to the last AGM it was really only ever going to be a major or independent who held the keys to financing this but that has now changed and this has boosted Macquaries hand enormously. For as much as it pains us we must give respect and trust to the board and Macquarie that they know all the exit paths as we approach the end of this journey.

I genuinely believe we are now within months, if not weeks, of being put out of our misery in one way or the other and I don’t think it’s going to be over.

Even in the darkest of times for the Bahamas we are not hearing their ministers quash this drill once and for all, if they wanted to do that this is now their perfect excuse - but they’re not. People are managing this message in the best, most sensitive way given in country events. Their rhetoric is in political speak aimed to placate and not to anger. I’d say this is the best indicator this drill is happening.

Yes, BPC have the right to convert to production licenses should this be required, if this is not granted then GoB will be open to significant litigation and their fear of this and view on it was made clear back in February by the Attorney General.

I think the words of the minister for Environment & Housing yesterday were very encouraging, particularly when taken in context of the Bahamas current predicament post Dorian. To me he’s basically saying they won’t be bullied by these groups.

I know it goes against the grain of thinking but I can’t see a placing, certainly not a large placing, before the Seadrill contract is signed. It doesn’t make sense to as they might as well see whether the sp gets a boost from signing the contract. It surely can’t get any worse by signing the contract.

A delay to some contract is always possible and any leak on that would be hard to keep quiet as it would involve a lot of non BPC personnel. We all know how tight BPC are.

In the interests of the Broker doing its part for the company in trying to assist a little in maintaining a slightly higher sp, couldn’t the Broker have set a wider spread with a punitive bid price to deter selling during this uncertain period? It may have deterred some of the traders and kept people in the longer game?

....cosy attitude...

D46. At best we only have a stated Chance of Success of around 36%, no one should ever be under the illusion that if a drill happens oil will be present, there’s a far greater chance it won’t. And even if we do hit oil, with one drill it will only ever be a volume in the 10’s or maybe early 100’s of millions of barrels. The billions of barrels often quoted is across the whole acreage and would require a sustained drilling campaign to prove.

I think the assumption that because no one has got involved so far it must be a dread duck is far too simplistic. Time frames for oil operators and producers are much more relaxed than that of a junior explorer, the companies with positive cash flow hold the upper hand and can squeeze these juniors into extinction or submission should they wish for their own gains, it is likely we are seeing some of this play out. The big players can pass the time in new or less regulated frontiers where they can dictate things e.g. Guyana.

The goal posts have moved a little now though for BPC in that they have now put plans in place to isolate a major from the picture should their terms not be favourable to the company. Before BPC’s strategy was openly stated as needing to secure a farm in to unlock the door, in my opinion this was a very bad thing to be shouting from the rooftops about and it showed naivety from the board. Macquarie have obviously slapped them into shape a bit here and things are being ran more for the interests of the BPC with less of the cost attitude towards the wider industry. Something that should have been done a long time ago.

On the subject of the market knowing what’s coming, we have seen today how the sp has dropped with a relatively small delta in £’s ‘sold’ and ‘bought’, on small volume.

That to me implies the depth of the market is small and the knowledge of the market is small and subject to great weakness and volatility and that the ‘market’ doesn’t really know anything.

The ‘market’ knows nothing at the moment, there is no real market at the moment. As an individual I could contribute to a doubling of the number of shares traded today if I so wished.

It takes nothing to move this sp, it’s not worth worrying about. We just need to arm the negotiating team with the best hand possible.

I don’t disagree that companies with good assets don’t go bust, they often do. What I am saying is the company will have known what will happen to the sp by tabling the idea of a very large placing and they will have known how to shift a large proportion of these should it be required. Almost certainly not on favourable terms to a PI, but they will have known. Making these threats is of no use if they cannot act upon them. It is not their preferred choice, we all know what that is.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled....

Everyone thinks we’re going for a placing, are we....?

The company is turning the handle on its plans (plural) and anyone who takes this at face value maybe blind to what transpires.

I would partly agree, it does appear a transparent attempt to rally the SP and even more so if the perspective of that viewer is one who often critiques based on the financial fundamentals of a company and not the qualitative merits of the asset.

Although making good money is very important to this board we must remember the board of directors and the assembled oil & gas professionals are exactly that, oil & gas professionals. Between them they firmly believe there is a world class resource down there and I suspect (which is also my view) they are worried little about the short/medium term fluctuations in SP as long as they get this well drilled. If their professional assessment of the asset is correct the SP and therefore money will look after itself.

How about taking the view that the ‘fracturing’ RNS is a professional statement, if the SP rallies on back of this then great, it’s a positive, if it doesn’t then there’s nothing lost. It’s a bit of a pre ‘I told you so’.

Often on this board people assume this company is ran by idiots who don’t have a clue and not enough respect is given to the fact these people may actually know what they are doing and have thought about all scenarios. Even only the most modestly educated could figure out that if you’re going to issue an RNS that states you’re going to issue 1.8bn shares the SP is going to suffer, that doesn’t take much thinking about - it’s a no brainer.

We are often told by the company to read what’s in an RNS and they have told us other financing options are available. They will have ran the scenario of a large placing and already know their ‘out’ before proposing the AGM Resolutions.

The primary objective of the AGM Resolutions were all about removing options and leverage to the counterparty, undermining their hand. In some ways it shows how close they are in negotiations. This will have a short term negative impact on sp but the greater value of such actions will outweigh that. Hopefully.

There will be many more unforeseen twists and turns on this journey and we will all be the last to know. We are looking at a much more complex situation than a binary share placing.

Yes it is in the interests of the company to peddle the idea of a placing and look like they’ll follow through on it because at the negotiating table this strengthens their position. A major or independent has to then decide if they want a part, or nothing, of something. Something which has very strong physical attributes and indicators of a world scale asset. Don’t be sucked in by a falling SP, look at the fundamentals of the Company and asset.

Form is temporary...

Because it sends the signal that they have what is required to walk away from any bad deal during any farm-in discussions. The counterparty in negotiations doesn’t hold all the cards, the project will move on with or without a partner, albeit not on favourable terms for PI’s.

It does feel the farm-in is less likely than more likely at this point. But again I’ll revert back to a previous post of mine, a large placing is exactly the picture the company the company are peddling at the moment and it would appear to be working. Do we give the board credit for this?

Each to their own but....

This share could quite easily finnish at 1.5p or 3.5p tomorrow without an RNS, simply on the back of a small number of large value trades. There is little black and white science with the BPC share price at the moment and it is where it is on sentiment only.

I realise its sentiment that ultimately drives the prices based on news flow but as many have pointed out we have been much higher on a lot less concrete news so it is only the fear of a placing holding this back. If word were to break on one of the other financial proposals on offer which substantialy mitigates or negates a placing this share will be off.

As I have said in other posts, the fear of a placing is what the company are peddling at the moment as this suits their negotiating hand and they will not deflect from this picture however much it hurts existing shareholders. In effect we have to hold our nerve and not blink in these negotiations just as much as those sat around the be table.

Good luck with your short and if it comes off I won’t be too bitter as it will mean we are likely one step closer to drilling and I’m not being greedy here, I just want us to drill.

I find it hard to believe any financial exchange allows that type of exposure on BPC, it’s a hefty risk for them if it goes against them and they’d be closing accounts left, right and centre if it goes for them. Stocks like BPC are too susceptible to a P&D to allow true market forces to work properly and therefore short positions are rarely possible.

Plus, we’ve had many on this board over the years make claims about short positions, at the end of Exclusivity last year this board was crawling with antagonists with that rhetoric and not once was I able to find an exchange to corroborate ones story, including anything on offer with IG.

I agree with you about the 6p placing but other than that I think you’re full of siht.

Who lets you go short on an illiquid volatile stock like BPC where only comparatively small volumes move the SP by large amounts?

Yes we all want to see it climb and it is without doubt frustrating and disheartening to see it fall. However, maybe some small solace can be taken from a falling share price, by that I mean....

If you wanted someone to negotiate for you on your behalf you would like them to have the strongest hand possible and shareholders have facilitated that by passing all resolutions. This means little though if your opponent(s) doesn’t believe you’ll go down that path. SP is a good reflection of sentiment and with that languishing where it is it seems to me that the market overwhelmingly believes a large placing is coming and the company are allowing that picture to proliferate as it serves a purpose at the negotiating table.

The placing may well happen and if so who cares, we get to drill. If we get a farm in we drill. Ultimately all roads should lead to a drill.

Form is temporary...

I’m not so sure the major not opting to strike a deal is what is putting others off. How about thinking about it another way, how about the major was interested but made an unpalatable offer and that these majors are all sticking together now, as thick as thieves, effectively trying to strangle BPC out the game?

For those of us who work in Oil & Gas we all have first hand experience of how virtually every project is split between the many companies, the badge you see is just the one who has the majority share. It mattered little who paid the Exclusivity money, it could have been one of five majors. After all these ‘Sisters’ stick together.

They paid their money, they had a good look, they liked what they saw, they made an offer knowing it would be refused and they have thrown BPC to the dogs hoping they will eventually fail.

Well BPC have come out fighting and however painful and drawn out this process is it looks like they’ll survive, albeit with a massive bloody nose but they’ll scrape through.

If a change in tack doesn’t happen then a global scale opportunity may evade those who are thwarting the process. Or they might have the last laugh if a duster is drilled?

I think an independent may be waiting in the wings but BPC has chosen this path to increase the tension for all involved and see what gives. At the end of the day they are no worse off for attempting this tactic even if it is fruitless.

https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/09/17/stb-lesson-to-be-learned-from-equinor-oil-spill/

Ignorance in its many forms can often be many things to many people.