Member Info for jimtheknow

Those of us who see the positives and potential of this business also need to be careful we don’t open ourselves up to being easy targets for the de-rampers.

We have no oil. No oil is guaranteed. As it stands there is nothing to leverage against so any financing model that looks to future returns on production is absolutely none existent at this moment. This all changes ‘if’ we find oil and that is the conundrum. But we have no oil.

People like you come on here professing to know the ins & outs and finer details of the T&C’s of BPC arrangements e.g. the convertible loan agreements, but you are just as lazy as almost 90% of other investors and this is demonstrated in the half truths you spout for your own agenda.

What one of the clauses for the convertible loan actually says is this, and I quote:

“BPC having raised sufficient funds (to the reasonable satisfaction of BCI) to meet the balance cost of the intended Drilling Plan in full, plus the operating costs of the Company for a period of at least 24 months from the date of Completion, such funding to be secured through one or a combination of either a farm-in and/or a capital raising via issue of Ordinary Shares at a price of 2p per Ordinary Share or higher;”

The CLN actually requires a placing price of 2p or higher and this and all clauses needed to be met “or otherwise waived by BCI”.

The company will be in constant dialogue with BCI and they have deemed the terms of any placing not acceptable and the company have stated their other financing options are better than this. So no placing at rock bottom fire sale price is happening.

The loan agreement has to be finalised by 30 November.

Maybe the company will have to give away some of the asset percentage for these other options. The board may not want this but it would benefit shareholders as that would significantly mitigate dilution, possibly negating it completely?

You really are a bit of an Oddity!

Stay away from them lonely vulnerable sheep tonight on that farm, just because they can’t talk doesn’t mean they don’t like it.

Ti, I did say a couple of days ago a farm in was now looking likely and I stick by that. I said a lot of people are following the money at their peril.

This is Macquaries plan and that share prophet balloon got sucked right into it. Of course he was right that discussions on a placing were happening, because they were. The company just needed to know they can move the shares though and at what cost, they don’t need to demonstrate any more to a potential farm in partner, only that they can do it. It is this capacity that gives me the edge in negotiations.

A farm in being close is the only sensible reason for giving the impression of a very large placing.

Penny dropped yet with the ‘money men’. Laughable.

I know an RNS can come at any time but the longer it doesn’t that TW needs his collar feeling by the FCA or police. As Linton pointed out yesterday it would appear an attack on the company and if so disgusting.

If the impression of a large placing is a ruse by the company to nail a farm in then bravo.

IK, we’re about to find out in just a few minutes whether this TW is right or not.

There are a number of caveats to a raise at 1p that may become acceptable over time e.g if it results in a multiple well campaign, if the raise is significantly lower in volume than 1.8bn and it unlocks further external financing, etc. for multi well campaign.

If the raise is to put £18m in the bank this is incomprehensible as it doesn’t seem to achieve any goal fully other than to retain the licenses at an almost prohibitively expensive cost and it would be difficult to see how this is best for all shareholders.

Until I read the wording of an RNS which states otherwise I’m going to continue to have faith in the board and give them credit for not being dumb.

The reporter who posted the original story is an angry man. He reminds me of what I think that Domonic Cummins must be like, wanting to fight against the system and status quo.

He’s not going to maintain his subscriber base for very long if he’s wrong with things like this so it must be true. We will find out in the morning for sure.

We’ve seen it at 1p before but it’s such a shame to see it there again on the back of supposed progress. The people who make the decisions in this company are obviously not very smart if it’s 1.8bn shares at 1p. I’ll let them off if it’s 500m at 1p and this is dovetailed with one of the four finance packages.

Please don’t let us down (again) BPC.

No more than 7 working days left until we hear news of great significance if 7am on Friday 11th is to be the cut off.

Glide, I don’t think it’s so much that, I’m now convinced it’s purely about trying to demonstrate they can shift them. 100% convinced. This reporter who got the scoop has done exactly what they required of him, he’s just another cog in the machine.

I’m not saying a placing could never happen, maybe one will, but they don’t require the full amount so I suspect an actual placing would be executed in a much different fashion. The board and Macquarie aren’t stupid people, this is exactly part of their Plan A.

It’s another lever at the negotiating table and it’ll be exactly what Macquarie asked for. Everyone is playing Macquarie’s game now, they have devised this plan and it is now being executed. For however painful it is for us to watch this a master class in deal making being played out. It may not be immediately obvious to the punter on the street but all this will have been thought through by the professional deal breakers.

Although nothing is without risk, today’s share price offers exceptional value for those with the stomach I’d say.

I could be totally wrong here and by all means people can accuse me of looking through rose tinted glasses but the more I think about today’s ‘scoop’ the more I feel it was probably deliberate.

Raising $25m from a placing doesn’t make any sense at all - none. However, the idea that it can happen is very powerful and it is this second point I feel was the purpose of the ‘leak’. I put in a previous post that passing resolutions alone serves little purpose if they are a busted flush from the start.

If raising funds via a large placing were the intended objective then there are smarter ways to mitigate share price deterioration, having some type of rights issue to existing holders could be part of the way to manage this.

However, the company have not made any official noises on that front other than to suggest such options may be possible. Why haven’t they done this by now? For me it’s because they don’t intend to, not yet anyway, as their preferred choice is to land the farm in.

Unfortunately shareholders are going to have to suffer the short term effects of these machinations as the game is played out.

If we don’t land the farm in then I think we will see the company become more vocal on a placing that will involve shareholder buy in at more sensible volumes and in tranches. All the company need to do now is look very credible in being able to shift enough shares for a drilling campaign, however punitive that share price may appear to be.

Give the board credit for being smarter than the obvious. The greatest trick the devil ever pulled....

Be careful what you sell or be prepared to be burned. This is a high stakes game of poker being played out in front of us.

I fully realise this is not reflected in the share price but as it stands today the fundamentals of the company are in pretty good shape for a junior explorer.

As of last Friday we had a healthy surplus of cash in the bank to cover operating costs. We have frame work contracts signed with all companies required to start drilling with costs known.

With regards exploration funding, we are now able to access the £10m loan to progress procurement of big ticket long lead time items, a loan who’s terms are extremely flexible and adaptable should BPC’s circumstances change e.g. secure a farm-in partner.

We have best in class industry advisors on board progressing farm in discussions. We have potential world class assets with good hydrocarbon indicators.

None of the above is speculation or rumour, it’s all black & white facts. It really does feel this is undervalued.

Just like the disingenuous news this morning rocked it, it will take only a tiny bit of positive news for this to take off.

Great buying opportunity for people and I take my hat off to those who were not party the deceitfulness and genuinely had belief in their convictions and bought on the way down - well done.

Absolutely shows how gullible and weak people are though and believe almost anything out on the Internet. Shows how they invest in the first place and the depth of knowledge they have in what they invest in. Sheep.

Is anyone going to copy and paste the full article?

I would hope BPC are currently speaking to their NOMAD and looking to update accordingly as there would appear to be some conflicts between what Simon said on Friday and this ‘scoop’.

MysteryGuy, what makes you think there’ll be a placing, how many and to whom will they be made available to?

I agree some type of fund raise will required and will be underpinned by the issuing of shares but I don’t think it’ll be a large placing before the Seadrill contract is signed and I’m 50:50 on whether any large fund raise actually needs to happen before Seadrill given no money is required until it sails. Seadrill could possibly be shown the four funding options BPC are yet to make public to demonstrate financial capacity.

I can’t see BPC waiting until the Friday of next week to announce anything either, I think news of whatever description will come before then. Not long now before we know.

It seems to be that it could be incredibly easy to raise the other half of well costs while keeping all existing shareholders happy.

If a proposal were made to existing holders where they were allowed to buy 1 share for every 3 they hold at a discounted price of say 1.6p. Shareholders could also then oversubscribe and take up any allowance not taken up.

This would see approximately another £10m in the coffers and only another c. 633m shares in circulation. I think the share price would fly if clarity like this were provided.

I wonder if this can be proposed to the company? Spread the word and see if an idea like this gains traction.

I’m thinking this would also help if a major farmed in at a later date and any funds were redistributed to holders or there was a share buy back?

Bonum, agree.

For me the risk is now low on this share for what it is and from where it was. It’s just a greed thing from investors at the moment.

PoC, if only the world worked as simply as you put it. Again, a comparison to nearby fields...

Thunder Horse field operated by BP (75%) & Exxon (25%). Yes this field has a few more technical aspects to it than those expected at BPC, however, it is roughly claimed as a 1bn find. The operators spent $5bn developing this field.

Yes, Simon said he would be looking at an FPSO model for production but this doesn’t come free and the ramp up in production and plateau levels will be scaled accordingly. We’d be doing very well to hit plateau levels of c. 150k bpd and that is not going to happen overnight. That’s a 15 to 20yr extraction. Plus reservoir properties and characteristics can change, for better or worse.

No one is going to pay a straight fag packet calculation price for an asset, it’s going to be factored down somewhat based on the potential variables and risks. Oil may be uncommercial in 10yrs. Who knows????

If that is the basis of your investment strategy, good luck.

Stewart. 70p is a lovely beautiful dream but as it stands that makes us about a £1.4bn company and we know there is some dilution on the way, at worst case 4bn shares = £2.8bn company, after this drill? Not even the most remotest chance of that happening in my opinion.

Dilution is not so much a worry to us in these early days and in my opinion even the worst case dilution allows for a safety margin at today’s buy in price, my opinion is it is unlikely to result in negative equity at these prices should the drill happen. However, by hell it’ll put the breaks on the sp as things progress.

D74. Simple, number of shares in circulation will be what ultimately puts the brakes on.

I don’t know how many shares RKH had in circulation at the time you speak of but they only have 458m in circulation now, that being roughly a quarter that of BPC today.

One thing is for sure and this is not going to go into the £’s for a significant period of time, if ever. To make some comparisons within the industry: BP is a global ‘super major’ valued at around £100bn. This is an industry giant with a huge amount of proven reserves and producing operations. Tullow Oil is an independent valued at c. £3bn with reasonable operations and resources. Premier Oil, c.£600m company with modest operations and resources. Eco Atlantic, c. £300m, essentially an explorer with a good share of some reasonable resources.

Where do you think BPC best fit in the above then divide by number of shares in issue. I’m pretty certain we will not be a billion pound plus company on an oil find only, we would need to be in the producing game. Which is eventually possible but there are significant hurdles, costs and times to get there. And a sprinkling of good fortune will also be required.

People often ask about potential share prices and it’s often a fools game to enter in to such mystical discussions but everyone does need to have their own internal rough estimate for this or you would never know when to get out.

My view on this is always based on market cap and for this over the next 6 to 9m I think there is no better guide than to look back at the previous 12m. In Exclusivity, with no firm plan to drill and no drill bit in the floor we maxed at c. £150m.

Assuming the worst happens and we see full dilution (4bn shares) but we find ourselves with a drill bit turning, no longer hype and promise - an actual drill underway, it is not unreasonable to assume we’ll see £150m again. Assuming such scenario were to play out we would be c. 3.75p.

To me this feels like a pretty good margin for entry with plenty of head room should any situation improve. Difficult to see even with a near 100% dilution where the big worries are in an investment play of this type?

I suspect in 2 weeks things will have vastly changed here as the Seadrill contract date cements any plans.