Peter is expected two further near terms MSCs to land. 2024 will see a double figure share price. This is truly an amazing achievement for the company and transformational in every sense of the work. Well done to Peter and all the long term investors that held their nerve. GLA, onwards and upwards
Excellent day on the markets today. Almost 20m shares traded at at VWAP of 3.45p. Healthy amount changed hands as recent traders jumped off the WSG train. UK trade delegation confirmed in DRC this week with our financeers UKEF present. Once it's all signed and done SP should be well north of 6p IMV. I anticipate another MSC will follow in short order, hopefully a double figure SP heading into H2. The tide is well and truly turning and sentiment is with us once again. The perfect storm for a rerate. GLA and may our patience be well rewarded
Thank you for that Vander however this is where we are CURRENTLY at with DRC as per the most recent information we have:
"I am delighted to announce that the long-awaited ratification process is currently being completed, being the final part of the formal procurement procedure for the now 10+ year contract signed in June 2021 for security services to 5 airports in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ('DRC'), Central Africa. Arrangements are now being made for a senior Westminster team to travel to the DRC with a UK Government Trade delegation in April to hopefully finalise matters and to prepare for commencement of the project. We expect to make a further announcement after that visit."
They have dangled enough carrots believing they are imminent hence the delay in a placing. We're into the third year of no cash raise. If they get the Ghana settlement closed out, that will be a massive cash buffer and then the big contracts will give the share price a big enough boost for PF to tap the market at a higher price. IMO this is what the board is thinking. Let's see what Q4 brings.
Business is H2 weighted so one would expect Full year profitable given the HY improvement from 2022. Obviously lots of promise, we hope will come to fruition this quarter:
"Our long-standing DRC project continues to move forward albeit at a frustratingly slow pace, but we have every reason to believe this will be finalised this year. In addition, we are close to finalising one or two other such sizeable Managed Services prospects and whilst timing is notoriously difficult to call when dealing with government organisations, we could deliver on one of these near-term opportunities at any time.
Our settlement negotiations with Scanport regarding early termination of the Ghana Port operation appears to be nearing a conclusion and we are hopeful of receiving a cash payment before the end of the year."
bigears, I think you'll agree with me that this is how 99% of directors operate on the junior markets and PF is no different. It comes part and parcel with investing on AIM. It's easy money for directors so we need to tread with extreme care in order to be successful.
No i agree with you, the whole point of my post is that there is no benefit of mud slinging and name calling. Please re-read, it was sarcasm. The point is that management have a lot to prove here. History has certainly been sketchy as far as the share price is concerned. The biggest unknown remains whether the promised deals will come to fruition. IMV the share price has priced in failure. You now either believe that management will deliver and remain invested or you don't and sell. The third option is to have no faith in the company and share price prospects but remain invested, that is just pure gambling. Let's see how the year unfolds.
Is that the reply you folks are interested in? Both sides are agenda driven. Yrabs has a point from a long term investor perspective and RHT from a traders. Let bygones be bygones. The share price has bottomed it seems and a lot hinges on the promise of delivery. Neither deramping ones own stock or ramping without substance is conducive to anyone's investment. GLA, hopefully better days ahead
You're having a laugh aren't you misty? You can't have a discussion with a teenager these days. They just don't have the intellectual maturity to engage. This chap has been copy pasting the same drivel ad nauseum for months on end. He's not interested in discussion, it's probably the reason why he missed the boat at 1p. Strange world the lot of you live in. I'm not interested in fundamentals here, I short term trade based on my reading of market mechanics. I'm also not here to hold hands of blind investors who haven't got the foggiest how to interpret the markets. You lot stick to your narrative and losing cash. We'll see who is right in time. This will bag, you heard it here first.
"Vesting is subject to the Company's share price being at 5p or above at close of business on any five consecutive trading days after the date of grant, which represents over 250% of the exercise price."
Well management have some work to do to get the share price to 5p at least.
With immediate bad news out of the way, placing fears dispelled, and little/no overhang down here the price is free to move. We only have 6 weeks till the end of the year and plenty of promise. The current market cap is close to historic lows. Whilst there is a possibility that none of the three big contracts transpire it is apparent to me the risk reward is very attractive. We could hear anytime on the new MSC, MENA tech deal, DRC ratification, all worth £ multi millions. Either item of news would rerate us from down here.
By informing the market in the last RNS + proactive interview of the imminent deals the directors have managed to carve a small window for themselves to trade. They are no longer witholding price sensitive information, smart move. Management is very much aware of where they head in the short term hence no placing and why would they at such a low price when they have huge deals about to cross the line. Any one of the three big contracts is a gamechanger for the share price. Next 6 weeks are going to be very interesting indeed.
For me this isn't so much about "Pete coming good in the long term" as much as it is about me managing my investment and risk whilst making money. Most AIM share charts are car crashes over the long term, in fact even the better companies are worse off in share price after 5 years. We still manage to make money from them; that's why we are still in the game. I merely see an opportunity here at this valuation and believe the risk-reward is favourable. Yes it could all go tits up like MADE and others but I don't believe that is about to happen. FWIW I don't have a 20p target here, more than happy to see 5/6p again in the next 12 months. If, of course, that doesn't play out I would like to think I have spread my risk appropriately.
Sorry to hear of your loss. I guess it's a good thing you have sold and moved on. Once faith in management and their ability to deliver comes in to question the logical thing to do is sell and look to the future. I hope you manage to recover your losses.
Ebola, JCPOA failure, Covid-19, Ukraine war impact - I do believe they have been largely unlucky. I don't absolve the management of all responsibility however but it hasn't been easy to operate in this climate. The Iranian MSC took years to come through, it was a company-changer and then Trump came along. We wouldn't be here venting our frustrations otherwise. I would argue that management should take a pay cut at the least whilst we navigate choppy waters. I do believe we will see the promised news items come through hence why I remain invested. Wish all holders well.
There is much history of non-delivery or under-delivery and perhaps a touch of bad luck owing to the risky nature of the business and jurisdictions in which we operate. I believe this is largely priced in, market cap is at an all time low and sentiment on the floor. IF, and I concede it is a big IF, these contracts come through there will be significant uplift to the price from here. It goes without saying, high risk-high reward true to AIM. Over to Peter now to deliver a very merry christmas to shareholders, here's hoping.
When Peter wants to place he doesn't give "profit warnings"; historically he just does it. We saw that with the 4p placing, only learnt about missed forecast in the year end report months later. This time I feel he is clearing the decks of any bad news knowing how close the big news items are. Current market cap is sub £5m and on the table for the next 2 months are the following items, big disparity with valuation should either one of the three items land:
- a new managed service contract (in the £millions)
- multi million tech contract
- DRC (worth >£500m over 20 years)
The upside opportunity from here is phenomenal. I believe the share is undervalued and the price is now undergoing a long due recovery. In a conference call with Arden Partners yesterday PF ruled out any plans to place, especially at these levels, and confirmed they are on track for profitability as per forecasts. Cash will only be required to finance any big contracts for which they have already secured UKEF debt funding. Calls for discounted placings at ridiculously low prices like this is just noise. DYOR