Member Info for Jim800

Simms,
Why do you keep insisting there is plenty of cash - most contributors here disagree due to: lack of transparency of accounts / cashflow, ambiguous RNS info, continued surprise placings, a £5Mn plus loan outstanding and an apparently inability to draw down further on the existing £10Mn loan agreement.
I have no confidence at all that we have enough cash for the rest of 2023 and would suggest that sorting out and publishing some sort of cashflow update is what is required to underpin any SP increase.

On the basis CO2 doesn’t weigh very much anyone know the volume of 300 million tonnes?
Or is there an error in those metrics?

RT - thanks for replying. Think the concern shows MF’s lack of understanding / thought / dumb writers / lazy journalism.
Vista points out one oversight in their comments, look back on here on hedging threads and you’ll see that DEC strategy is to hedge much of production years ahead so stabilising cashflow, keeping acquisition debt relatively cheap and supporting a nice dividend.
Investors and journalists need to understand the strategy then the numbers make sense.
Welcome aboard.

What are the usual caveats? DEC specific or MF we really don’t know what we’re going so don’t take this as advice type caveats?

If the report is correct and the way out of the dispute was for all KRG oil to be sold under the auspices of SOMO by Baghdad with KRG money going into a special account that sounds good for Genel. May even get Baghdad to pay us before giving the money to KRG!
Also gives us a bit more hope of getting any arbitration award.
Dealing with Baghdad got to be better than dealing with KRG.

Divi of 20.7p share price down 13p as I type.
No sell yesterday and buy back cheaper option today.

Suspect our large Turkish holders are both a blessing and a curse.
A blessing in that they might positively influence Turkey / Baghdad / KRG discussions.
A curse in that they are probably happy with continued expansion in an area they know, understand and can influence.
I’d suspect he knows things we don’t!

Nice ride into ex div. Knock the 20p dividend off share price and we might just stay above £4. Would be nice to keep that support level post dividend.

No-one care anymore?

Excellent article.
I don't see the main risk as a temporary cashflow issue, Genel have weathered those before.
The bigger issues here are the power struggles between Baghdad and KRG - a few months without oil money will see the KRG weaken. It's then a question of who the wider Iraq want to do business with - those companies that have been ignoring their court rulings or others!
Ditto with Turkey - they will determine who they think will be left standing the longest and do business with them - more likely to be Baghdad than KRG in my opinion.
Our best hope is sheltering under DNO protection and them making friends with Baghdad and persuading everyone that flowing oil is beneficial for everyone - it's just getting the local political parties to make some concessions that is always difficult. It's like Northern Ireland on steroids.
Let's hope common sense and mutual benefits prevail.

DNO have taken the brave move of ceasing production here and starting to close Tawke.
It’s now a game of nerves with KRG. How will they pay for previous months deliveries with no income?
There go yesterday’s gains. Baghdad must be laughing their socks off. Is this the end of KRG independence?

Andii, saying EQT are slightly less worse than another struggling company (VLS) is hardly a ringing endorsement of teh BoD or the strategy.
Hurrah, we haven't lost quite as much money as some other people.
Just because I'm a shareholder doesn't mean I should ignore reality.

Interesting whether it is actually dividend reinvestment that bumps the share price or just the prospect of it.
Given price was up first thing and dividends drift into accounts throughout the morning, I'd suggest that the first rise is just on the prospect of more re-investment.
Perhaps we'll get a second bump this afternoon when shareholders actually start spending the dividends.

Andii, from your long and detailed list of finance possibilities, I focus on the last paragraph.
“Biggest risk is inability to secure finance” - a continued problem for EQT (unless they dilute even more).
“Ability to invoice”
“Cash inflows we assume are uncertain.”
There may be jam tomorrow somewhere but can we afford to survive whilst we wait for it?
Don’t think you can just read the positives but ignore the negatives in the same article. I’d say the facts are more important than the aspirations / opinions and we haven’t got a good track record on facts.

Andii @ 1402 - a little loose with the facts!
The paid for research note says on page 1 they "expect" fees as they go along but no start date.
Then on page 2 it says development fees will commence in FY 24 (is that 23/24 or 24/25 or just a non specific date)?
So, as per my previous, likely money out (or at least time and staff which equals money) for next 18 months then some (maybe lots) in from end of 2024 if project doesn't slip.

It would appear that Toad, Roadrunner and myself read the RNS in the same way. A good tie up with a known company but we still have to outlay cash / time / resource and financial close is late 2024 - so it's cashflow negative until then to add to all the other negative cashflows.
I see Anndy or AAndi or however he's spelling it today cite regular payments but I didn't spot that in the RNS and have lost a little faith in BoD jam tomorrow quotes and paid brokers' notes.
Good news that someone has faith in the tech but it doesn't alter the dire cashflow situation EQT seem stuck in.

The same Malcy who recommended Genel at £14 in 2015 ish.
He’s a chimp who just regurgitates company releases and pretends to add some value. Also tipped DEC as it fell through 110 ish recently- it went down to sun 90 and is still loafing about under 95p.

If KRG are months late paying whatever they like whilst selling oil, no sales is going up have a massive impact on KRG cashflow and hence payments to DNO and Genel. Hope they are only producing into storage for a short time.
At least Turkey will have a more robust negotiation stance than Genel / DNO have had. Perhaps the wake up call KRG need,

There isn’t an actual loss - it’s an accounting complexity reflecting a potential opportunity missed. It’s negative now but still a big profit) it’ll be positive (but still not real) when spot price is lower than hedged price.
That’s DEC’s strategy to stabilise cash flows, cover the dividend and make debt cheap. If you don’t like it there are plenty of other shares out there.

Bank,
If you don’t understand the hedging and the financial accounting rules pertaining to that you really shouldn’t be investing here. Go look at all the previous posts on the subject.