Member Info for Jim800

15th day or 15th working day
Arabic days or Western days
Our definition of committed or the KRG's? Think their definition of committed is "a word to get what we want which will last until it becomes slightly inconvenient for us, at which point we'll renegotiate (oh and by the way we hold all the cards).
But hope your quote proves to be true.

Have the recent "similar" trendlines for G and RDSB now diverged purely due to GEnel retaining their divi and Shell cutting theirs by 66%?
Seems to discount any geographical risk, size of company, certainty of payment and even POO.
Have bought more RDSB to match G holdings - though I fear it may be too many eggs in the oil basket!
Still at least I've got my IAG holding (which was supposed to be a hedge against low oil prices).
What do you call 2 hedges that both fall at the same time?

Containers now worth more than their contents!
Nordic American Tankers up 19% yesterday.
If only I hadn't given all that Tupperware to the charity shop years ago.

He's an eternal optimist, missing most of the facts! His comment on Genel following recent RNS:
"Genel has received payment of invoices by the KRG who have proposed a payment structure whereby all payments will be made in due course."
No mention of late, delayed, postponed, yet another change to payment schedules, impact on cashflow etc etc
Surprised he can read or type with those rose tinted glasses on...

Concur with Boyo and Hasiba - think an RNS actually telling us what is going on is a positive (far better than previous rumour and speculation).
KRG realise they are dependant upon oil for any form of civilisation (hence managing last payment even with missing Lebanese money). This latest is just a reflection of the current economic realities of low oil price and potentially COVID 19 (impact on KRG not really known and likely set to get worse).
A positive attempt to deal with the situation in a pragmatic way and being open and honest about it can only help SP in my view. Genel have had lots of opportunities to cancel dividend and not taken them (hence my question about cashflow yesterday) they obviously think they can manage to pay it and still function under new payments arrangement.

Lots of clever / knowledgeable people on this BB. Has anyone tried to track or forecast Genel's cashflow? We knew the position at end of last reporting period (real position for payments received, not money owed), we know what the payments have been recently and we should be able to work out monthly cash burn (assuming production remains constant - it'll be last years operating expenses plus capex divided by 12) we know what May's dividend is going to be.
This would give an indication of ongoing viability with or without KRG monthly payments (though these should be more likely given resolution of Lebanese bank issues). Anyone clever with time on their hands?

Jessell - Thanks - keeping the faith (may as well now as I'm so far down) but was hoping averaging down was a way of getting some money back. Looks like not topping up was correct call for today, let's see what tomorrow brings.

Jessell - nope still in but at an average price some ways North of current SP. Tempted to average down but if Directors aren't buying I wonder why not? Looking at other shares I hold in negative territory the Directors are buying in at the low prices which I take as a good sign - that sign not present here.
Lots of new posters all telling us how it's soon going to be a double / triple / quadruple bagger isn't helping sensible decision making.

Hasiba - have you been in self isolation with Hawkey?
That was almost a reasons to be cheerful post :-)

Glad to see all you new to the forum rampers are so optimistic.
I wonder why the Directors aren't buying? With Trading Update issued the Directors could have piled in yesterday but didn't. Think they probably know a bit more than forum trolls.

If only I could tell you where the share price is going as easily :-)

Think they tried to diversify with Gas and Somaliland etc but for various reasons (contractual with Gas) these have not added to revenue stream yet.
Operating here is a high risk, potentially high reward strategy for Company and shareholders alike.
One day Rodney, we'll be millionaires…….

It's not just AA, its wider advice from the FCA:

Britain's Financial Conduct Authority said listed companies planning to report over the next few days should hold off so that they could better assess how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting their business.

Investors only see silence due to the practicalities of doing business in the KRG. Presumably Genel have known for a while that KRG have cashflow issues, they probably also knew about the developing situation with the inability to release funds from the Lebanese bank. However, releasing news on the financial status of a host nation is not really the best way to ensure good working relationships going forward. There may well be ultimatums being discussed but there's no way a responsible company would tell the world that and hope to continue business in that region. I asked months ago what it would take to stop production - looks like we're getting there but the story will be quiet and private so as to try to retain a working relationship with people who owe us lots of money and who control whether we carry on operating in the region or not! It's not quite the same rules as running a business in Hampshire.

Hasiba - lovely timing, looks like your decision making process has been vindicated - Congratulations. Stop loss set or holding out for dividend?

Hope time proves you correct and me as being overly pessimistic.
But as per Boyo's post - for non Genel holding investors looking to capitalise on the suppressed oil price, a choice between companies getting paid for their output and companies with a questionable / opaque payment schedule seems a fairly easy choice.
Top up Genel or top up RDS?????
Good luck to all and stay healthy.

Hasiba - I get the logic of it's KRG's only source of income but history seems to indicate they feel able to cease / delay payments whenever they like, using the oil companies for interest free loans whenever needed.
Seems like a fairly lopsided arrangement where the oilies dance to the ever changing demands of the locals, despite funding the country. For those in political power, screwing the oilies for a few years gets them short term political gains with little downside. G / DNO may reduce output, I doubt they'll give up on their investment in full. What do we think it would take to pull out - 5 years non-payment????? Run out of cash / borrowing capacity??

Whilst I'm well up for a bit of Genel ramping (we need all the help we can get) cash is still only flowing one way!

….. "maintain the dividend at a 20% yield which shows enormous confidence and strength" will hopefully be proven correct but only if KRG get round to paying their debts on diminishing oil returns whilst simultaneously managing increased health costs and associated COVID 19 costs in the KRG.
If, as seems more likely, payments do not resume shortly then it might be seen as a bit foolhardy.
I'm amazed there was no explanation for unpaid periods and no attempt to forecast when they may resume. Not even a "we're re-negotiating payment terms whilst KRG comes to terms with reducing oil revenues."

Tempted to add at this price but whilst cash is only flowing out I'm hesitant.

Enough comment on debt levels so I won't go there but surely the opportunity for greater profits is not more cars on the road but AA insured cars with AA breakdown cover sitting on peoples' drives not moving and not costing the company anything. Annual payments both made and nil claims - should be lovely!

Malcy is as bad as Hawkey - doesn't matter how cheap production is or what reserves or prospects are if we aren't being paid for what we produce. Amazing how anyone can take a blog that fails to mention this seriously. If I could produce oil for $1 a barrel but didn't get paid for it I wouldn't last long.
if G do maintain their dividend tomorrow then you have to hope it's because they see some positive sign of payment in the near future - if not it's rank stupidity as they'll soon burn through the cash pile they currently have.