Member Info for Jim800

Given the EU haven't yet imposed Oil and Gas sanctions on Russia and are still buying from them, it's difficult to see who they would tax. Certainly not O&G companies domiciled outside the EU; eg in the Middle East, UK or US.
EU far more concerned about supply issues than the UK. Getting all 27 Countries to agree will be nigh on impossible.

As per previous posts, nice and steady linear improvements.
Production up, year end exit rate up, hedging prices up, dividend up.
Never quite get the following bit as it doesn't seem to impact real numbers and think it's an accounting convention to cover hedging activity. Can anyone elaborate?
"Net loss of $325 million (2020: net loss of $23 million) inclusive of $485 million (2020: $181 million) tax-effected, non-cash unsettled derivative fair value adjustments."

Steady as she goes!

https://ir.div.energy/us-press-releases/detail/128/final-results-for-the-year-ended-december-31-2021

My point was only that the massive spread is a disincentive for buying shares full stop. Doubt day traders or scalpers can play with this.
I’m trying to increase my long term position but would not buy on a 14% spread, especially as it does drop back to 4 or 5% at times.
Like it or not that spread will dissuade some investors.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Schedules-First-Oil-Gas-Licensing-Round-In-2-Years.html

But when there are other shares available at a spread of less than 1%, that inevitably impacts decision making.

A few years ago a 5% rise would have caused:
- a new Big Surge Day thread.
- Bunks promising champagne all round.
- Boyo producing a new chart to prove it was still all between trend lines but did give a new SP/OP ratio.
- a new list of reasons to be cheerful.
Now it’s just tumbleweed…..

Fully agree with negative impact of huge spread. I had intended to buy more early last week but couldn’t get it below about 7% so didn’t bother. Think my initial buy was about 4% above sell price, even that was a bit off putting. 14% is ludicrous.

Not so sure current shareholders will be buying back in. That’s another load of stamp duty and transaction charges incurred. You’re almost better off buying more now and accepting you’ll get some cash back without costs later on.

Think the UK Govt going to have to let Shell and BP start up all sorts of North Sea operations again irrespective of opposition views. Think environmental concerns will be less of a vote winner than energy security and lower prices in the short term at least.
Hopefully oil companies realise they have the upper hand for once and can get some fair treatment and recognition as being helpful to UK PLC rather than pariahs.

Is the Hogwarts Sorting Hat a well known charting pattern?
Do Quidditch patterns indicate a likely rise? Does JK Rowling have an Investment Fund we should be aware of?
I’m guessing Char and Licker are 2 of the mysterious creatures looked after by Hagrid.

RedTom, your view mirrors mine exactly. I’m not in DEC for excitement, a steady share price and 10% dividend does me fine.
The business model will always hold back massive SP gains as it is buy up old assets with limited reserves and extract more efficiently.
Current reserves are known and finite and new buys are going to be expensive this year until gas prices fall away again.
Hedging limits massive upswings in profits but more importantly ensures consistent income.
Safe and steady here.

A couple of worrying paragraphs, where predictions were incorrect (but guess that's part of the exploration risk):
"In 2021 Sarta was a key focus of our investment. While initial production has not reached the levels that we hoped it is a pilot project, and a profitable one, and we have made substantial progress on the appraisal programme required to understand the asset.
We remain rigorous in our management of capital expenditure. Qara Dagh drilling did not lead to the result that we wanted, but it is a measure of our discipline that the correct decision was made to halt drilling at the appropriate time. "
But I'm glad to see they recognise that diversification is required:
"We are committed to our material dividend, and to illustrating to investors that it is sustainable in the long-term. As such, we are keen to replace the cash generation that will be lost once Tawke override payments end and add diverse long-life cash generative production. We continue to consider potential acquisitions that fit our business model and aims, and will remain highly selective and opportunistic in this area." Hopefully more at the Investors Presentation on the 17th March. Total reliance on KRG, whilst in dispute, until Somaliland is up and running looks a bit risky. Wonder what Genel will do if KRG try to restart the PSCs with them now Russia are out of the game?

The Enterprise Value looked all back to front to me, adding debt and subtracting cash. So I looked it up.

Enterprise value (EV) is a way to measure the actual value of a company's business operations, without regard to its capital structure or cash on hand. It’s a more holistic way to value a company than by just looking at its market capitalization. Essentially, enterprise value is a company's market capitalization adjusted upwards for outstanding debt and adjusted downwards by its balance of cash & equivalents.

A company's enterprise value can increase or decrease based on its financial activities and its performance in the stock market. Enterprise value will move up and down in step with changes in a company's market capitalization, except where changes to cash and debt balances occur.

Because enterprise value is a more accurate measure of a company's actual business value, it is typically used to estimate its true takeover value. For example, if a company has a market cap of $22 billion, but holds $3 billion in cash, an acquirer who buys all outstanding shares at the current market price is essentially paying only $19 billion for the business. The acquirer will use $22 billion to purchase all the outstanding stock, but then inherit the $3 billion of the case.

As per figures below (apologies for formatting) Capex started reducing in 2014, it certainly reduced more quickly post covid but was already going down. 2019 was almost half 2013 expenditure.
Capital expenditure of Royal Dutch Shel from 2011 to 2020 (in million U.S. dollars.

column chart
Characteristic Capital expenditure in million U.S. dollars
2020 16,585
2019 22,971
2018 23,011
2017 20,845
2016 22,116
2015 26,131
2014* 31,676
2013* 39,975
2012 32,576
2011 26,301

Not a great article but last para tries to give the rationale for change.
“NREL, which is owned by UK power producer Bioenergy Infrastructure Group and Wiltshire-based waste management company The Hills Group, blamed Brexit and a lack of supply chain commitment for a fixed-price project using the system.”
Guess burning seems to be cheaper, less risky and quicker to get going.
Not saying any of that is right but guess local journos probably don’t understand the differences between potential technological solutions.

Generally as expected. Production shows a slight decline, dividend up 20%.
Cash flow looks excellent but bloated by recoveries from previous years so not directly comparable year on year. Huge write downs for BB PSC and reduced reserves.
Production expected to be flat next year.
Nil signs of increased profitability obvious in the summaries (other than due to OP rises) come on Genel you need to have a plan for the future. Hopefully it’s in the text which I’ll get to later.

Thanks, lots of buyers seemed to like the RNS.

Text from bbc article.
The global energy market has been suddenly upended by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but one energy boss says the US could step in and help shore up global supplies.
Toby Rice, who runs the US largest natural gas producer EQT, told the BBC the US could easily replace Russian supply.
"We've got the ability to do more, the desire to do more," Mr Rice said.
He estimated the US has the potential to quadruple its gas output by 2030.
Mr Rice's declaration that American companies could play a bigger role in providing gas to Europe, comes less than a week after US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm urged the country's fuel industry to pump more oil.
"We are on a war footing", Ms Granholm said. "That means you producing more right now, where and if you can."

Capex was slashed long before covid as oil prices dropped and even went negative.
Current profits are not due to good management, they are due to geo-political events outside the control of oil companies.
Nothing to do with your other points about benefits.
Historically, windfall tax in the USA in the 80s was due to profits deemed to be excessive as a result of OPEC price rises. In the UK it was on utility companies after the Govt decided they had been privatised too cheaply.
I’m not saying i think it’s a good idea (greater North Sea Capex providing energy security or spend on green projects would be far better in the long run).
But, politicians only think as far ahead as the next election and what makes good news stories for the majority of the electorate (Shell shareholders are a minority, even including pension fund holdings).
Just because Shell shareholders don’t like it doesn’t mean it won’t happen here or in the US. As per previous posts I think this will need some creative accounting by shell to avoid “massive profits” “huge dividend” type headlines in the press.