Member Info for Jim800

In simple terms it's what they could have sold for at max price vs what they actually got at hedged price.
It's not a real number and not a real loss (could be a missed opportunity perhaps).
No difference to company metrics hence no move in share price.
We take the paper loss for the certainty of guaranteed income and security.
Interesting to note that pro active think div has increased to 4.25cents - I've been getting that since March - shows how accurate their research is.

I think you've just argued against yourself there. "No requirement to borrow....if we had a requirement to borrow."
Our production assets are declining and our production rate is declining quarter on quarter. We need more oil resources and that is either exploring / drilling money or acquisitions both of which cost -irrespective of location.
Do you not think borrowing was cheaper a year ago than it will be next year?
As a clue look at BoE rate rise today.

Alternatively, pay off the debt, KRG stop paying and we have to borrow again on worse terms!
No-one minds a mortgage if you can afford the monthly payments.

Expected news is either they’ll complete something and get paid or they won’t!
Ask Mystic Meg

Agree with your earlier post. Any current debt terms are going to be better than you could get today so retaining cash and just servicing debt leaves G ready for buying alternative resources elsewhere should they be available at the right price.
Think shareholders need to recognise this is always going to be a relatively high risk / volatile company and hence share price to match.
If you want stable, that’s what shell is for.

Suggest KRG's cashflow is such that they won't be able to pay an out of court settlement. Would also be political suicide at a local level, giving loadsa money to a foreign organisation whilst locals struggle to survive.
Similarly, who in KRG is going to admit that binning Genel for BB and planning to hook up with Russia for gas extraction doesn't look such a good idea now?
Think they'll just keep kicking the can down the road in the hope that they'll either be out of power when the bill eventually comes in or local politics will allow them to ignore any international court rulings.
Only hope is a new PSC for BB with much better terms and some cash up front for Genel - so KRG can have our expertise and experience but no more interest free loans to develop their resources.

Some interesting comments on HY Results.
From my perspective:
- continued production decline must worry potential investors - G are making lots of money but will eventually run out of stuff to sell.
- ongoing arbitration must impact relationships. How are KRG going to react if / when hit with a multi million pound settlement?
- Genel's record on new wells and new drilling isn't great. Very poor choice of words in results saying that the £75M Capex has provided "learning" - we don't want them getting cleverer we want more resources to sell.
- At least there was no write down on reserves - that makes a pleasant change.

Good Luck all - at least we're getting a decent dividend we weren't even getting that at one stage!

Leniin,
Take a look at the history of Genel Opex, write downs and relationship with KRG (not to mention KRG's with Baghdad) - although perhaps you should have done that before buying.
Although very good at pumping cheap oil we are reliant on a single country for output, a single very unreliable customer for payment and a political / legal system that makes Boris seem honest and reliable.
If it weren't for ceased payments and broken promises we'd be above the 300p or so it was when I first looked.
I

Can LSE not do maths anymore?
Bid 5.10, Ask 5.25 and last sell at 5.29.
Yet LSE say price down 0.9%
I make it up 10% on Friday's close of 4.80.
It's blue you muppets - not red.
Makes GG's assertion this will be an up week almost a certainty seeing as it's up 10% already.

MadStork is correct in implications (though you may also need a W8BEN for your SIPP - HL require me to have separate W8BEN's for ISA and SIPP).
However, a read through previous posts on here will show that many brokers don't understand / apply the above correctly.
Trek, I'd be flabbergasted if II don't withhold your 30% and then blame you for not completing the forms!

Sounds like: DEC exceed what they have agreed with multiple States but two people moan loudly to local press.”
At worst case, deals were fraudulent and wells revert back to previous owners (oh, who weren’t plugging them at all).
See my bullet 3 below on why SP is held back.

Trek,
Muted share price is due to :
- general feel that this is an income share and although dividend is excellent, SP seems to be towards the top of its 3 year range and I think it will take a US listing to re-rate it.
- general ESG concerns preventing most institutions / funds getting involved.
- occasional spoof methane story scaring investors.
- Many PIs / brokers inability to understand and manage the US tax implications and complete the W8BEN correctly.

It's all an excellent story, just that some can't understand it. If DEC were to change its name to the Diversified Well Capping and Methane Emission Testing Company the SP would fly!

ConServ was just a tiddly starter.

These are generating assets - instant bottom line impact.

Radio 5 already calling for another WFT given latest gas/elec price rises and Shell profits today.
Any huge div increase would have played into them / us, rich / poor debate.
Very simplistic but general public assume all shareholders are Victorian gentlemen with top hats and whiskers.
Careful PR still required here so guess BB is least worst option, though acquisitions (especially green ones) would have been my preference.

For April now received. Details in RNS.
Money owed for previous sales now down to 58M dollars - I didn’t think we’d ever get that money back.
Time for BoD to consider a special dividend to reward our patience perhaps.

From May 22 Investor presentation:
2021 Production figures:
Gas Production MMcf 234,643
Oil MBbls 592
LNG MBls 3,558

Revenue
Gas 818,726
Oil 38,634
LNG 115,747

Units can be ignored as ratios paint my picture. It's a;; about the gas!
Still think it's an excellent investment - even though HL are warning my portfolio is not diversified enough!

Trek,
Not sure I agree with your rationale.
In the olden days when it was DGOC oil output was higher but I'm pretty sure last time I checked, oil was now a minor by-product generating about 3% of DEC profits. The vast majority is now gas (hence the name change) so don't think there's much correlation between oil price moves or world production / stock levels and DEC share price.
A more relevant link is probably the Henry spot price for gas but as you say, hedging makes day to day changes irrelevant, though established trends should feed through to share price.

One positive for anyone averaging down is that the spread has reduced significantly from a quoted 10/11% (I know you could get it smaller than that but I'll use the LSE source for comparison purposes) down to 4/5%.
Is this a sign that MM have large holdings they're happy to sell on quickly for a small profit?

Ta Boyo,
Illustrative as usual. Guess the big jump in Oxy was US investors following a Berkshire related TR1 equivalent.

Agree that buybacks isn't the greatest use of funds, but in current political situation big dividend increases aren't either. My "green" holdings (EQTEC, GETECH and VLS) have all tanked recently, looks like lots of cheap takeover options for green technology companies out there. Shell needs to pick the best (don't think I can) and buy them up for future revenue streams, tax incentives and green points in the press.

Even if it made strategic and financial sense (and don’t think it does) then doubt it would get through monopolies and mergers.