Member Info for Jim800

Blimey Boyo, a rant and considering Genel. Must be having a bad day. I’d read Baghdad’s latest policy on foreign oilers in KRI before you re-enter.

He's doing the rounds today telling everyone how he'll freeze energy cap and then get the energy companies to pay the bills for everyone in the UK.
Hopefully today's share price reaction will reverse once the general public realise that companies need to make a profit in order to continue, never mind to carry on finding new resources or transition to greener ones.
If Labour were to pass laws banning all price rises then we'd all be fine wouldn't we - or might there be some unintended consequences??????

Kier has always had plenty of contracts.
It was the great forward looking order book that tempted me in about 4 years ago.
Unfortunately, they need contracts they make a profit on, not the old ones that lost them money.
Hopefully new estimators are doing a better job and building in a decent level of profit nowadays.

Beginner,
So are you thinking positively or do you just wish to? If the former great, if the latter then you aren’t but it will take some evidence to change your thinking from not positive to positive.
We all wish to think positively, that’s why so many people lose money.

Not sure you can apply normal metrics to Genel.
They don't really have a FCF - they have a random cash flow depending on KRG priorities, receipts from Baghdad, latest political whims etc etc. Look at RNS over last few years and ask yourself why this year's cashflow is being boosted by money from previous year's sales.
Baghdad's latest on banning international oilers from operating in Kurdistan is unlikely to make monthly payments more reliable.
Not saying it's doomed, but there are numerous risks - hence the price vs "normal" metrics.

Think there are many sentiments out there:
- current holders who believe that the company is headed in the right way and average down when they have the money.
- current holders who are concerned about company finance / governance but who are sitting on losses so don't want to sell but won't buy more or sell up until some projects close and price starts to rise.
- people who are watching EQT for some sign of uptrend / good news
- people who have no idea and won't act til there is big news and share price rockets.
All of these likely to act at differing share prices.

You normally are :-)

Perrins,
You'll never get a consensus on future share price movements. The market works on matching buys and sells - if there aren't both then there is no market.

Lots of them but most pretty small, only one I can see over £5K - whilst the individual sells are bigger.
PIs just moving small amounts around rather than anything institutional I think. Don't get your fingers burned.

And do the opposite!
His “this share will never reach £15 cos it’s just like Vodaphone” still an all time classic on here.

If Tawke is up but overall guidance not changed, should we assume something else has or will go down?

Even more interesting they all chose to buy at the same time and not at a low price. Do they know something we don’t? (Well obviously they do but wonder what it is).

Repayments due to commence 5 months after initial loan, so 29th Aug (I think at 1/7 of £5M plus 7.5%) in 7 monthly instalments.
Do we think this is factored into cashflow predictions or do we need to borrow the other £5M to repay the first? Given we've already paid the 2.5% commitment fee on the £10M and 7.5% is not looking too bad now, why not?
At least we haven't triggered any share price performance clauses.

Can see both sides of the debates here:
AIM growth company will inevitably have growing pains and need to borrow. Similarly there will be "unknowns" which trip up project timelines.
Financial planning has been poor (seemingly optimistic and short term) whilst project execution has failed to meet promulgated timelines.

As an alternative illustration, Aviva results out this morning and a 10% uplift in SP - not for any new information but they have come in on target for profit, debt reduction and dividend. Today's market rewards accurate forecasting but doesn't seem to believe your promises until you deliver on them.
There may be a significant lag between the health of the company and the SP reflecting that.
I'm holding but not adding until we complete a few things and sort out loan repayments.

I'd seen an earlier version of Whitehat's link a few days ago - doesn't read at all well. Until you realise the following:
- KRG have pretty much ignored all Baghdad instructions / policy over the last 8 or 9 years, to prove to locals how autonomous they really are.
- Baghdad don't really have the means to enforce what their letter says. I doubt they'd risk an all out civil war.
- what this will turn into eventually is a debate about how much oil KRG can sell and how much Baghdad reduces the amount of money (rom taxes etc) it transfers to them.
Iraqi politics all about saving face, gaining power and tribal factions - very little to do with making the country a better place or establishing prosperous international ties. Hopefully all a load of smoke and mirrors to speed up financial debates between KRG and Baghdad.
However, if I'm wrong I hope Genel are planning a quick special dividend to all shareholders to totally wipe out cash reserves and leave debts with loan companies who will have a better chance of recovery in the various arbitrations this will inevitably result in.

I share the opinion that buy backs are far less attractive to shareholders than a special dividend but also get that they improve company metrics so BoD look good. Whether or not this influences potential investors and raised share price doesn’t seem to be proven. For some companies (like Shell I feel it’s more an admission they don’t know what to do with the money, but following consolidation aviva seem set on reducing number of shares in circulation as a strategy.
As always, time will tell.

Seav, you say “excuse” others might say “reason.”
Given your repeated posts don’t seem to have influenced the BoD, isn’t your best course of action just to sell and buy BP?
Or do you really think BvB reads this for his managerial ideas?
Personally, given EON’s profits today, everyone on 5 live and radio 4 is after more WFT so optics remain essential, I’m guessing that’s why there hasn’t been a special div.

Ace
You omitted the acquisitions. DEC policy is clearly stated as acquiring further assets. I'm happy with 10% return and continued acquisitions from (or mostly from) free cash flow.
Safe and secure or volatile and perhaps more profitable next year - individual choice but 10% and a gain from mid 90s to 120s for my holding suits my needs. Would I buy at high 120s? Probably not.

Boyo - are you inferring that missing your stop limits and then holding on and hoping for the best isn't a sound investment strategy? :-)

The RNS is a bit disingenuous (but factually correct) referring the increase by to 2Q21 .
The pro active comment with no reference to other Qs, just an increase, is factually incorrect. But then I guess if their researchers understood shares they'd all be millionaires, not researchers.