Member Info for Jim800

All nice and steady here just earning dividends and watching SP settle into its new range.
Only news is Abrdn increasing its holding to over 5.4 % - come on institutions buy em up for the divi.

TP3 I know the theory. It just doesn’t seem to work in raising share price or enabling an increased dividend. It might tweak financial ratios and get the directors a bonus but I haven’t seen one yet over the last 5 years that benefits shareholders as much as a special dividend or investing in a profitable acquisition.

Shell have just announced a £4bn buyback (an admission they don’t know what to do with the money in my opinion). Why aren’t they looking at partnering with AIM greenies like EQT? A fraction of a fraction of 4bn and some project management expertise would accelerate pipeline massively.

And out at 2395.

See you all again at XD or after WFT announcement.

GLA

Looks like my 2395 sell order is going to be tripped. I liked investment in gas fields, not so sure about throwing £4bn away on buybacks (surely there are green start ups Shell should be buying or partnering). WFT2 to be announced next month, how can the Govt resist public opinion at present?
I’ll buy back in around £21 as I still think long term story is good.

Perhaps Shell can sneak a decent dividend rise in whilst they focus on the headline of “profits down.”

And today’s buyers seem to agree with JP Morgan!

Robleo, think you missed the point. Your capital may be the same amount in a savings pot but it is worth 10% less every year if inflation is 10%.
If you get interest of 4.5% your spending power has still reduced by 5.5% (same as a loss of capital if inflation was zero.
Saving at 5% when inflation is 10% does not preserve your capital.

Surely if inflation is 10% and your interest rate is 4.5% as you suggest, far from having secure capital it is depreciating by at least 5.5%. Not so attractive

Because Aviva share price is always the top consideration in a nuclear war!

All those things were in place in Jun 22 at the 52 week high!
Only difference now is WFT the sequel.
BoD scared to raise divi (probably due to press optics) so what’s going to get better than June (other than some cold weather)?

52 week high is 2450 ish so I think people will be baling at or about 2400 unless there’s a significant dividend rise.
My sell order set at 2395!

Pan, you may think it’s a great little company but it’s been mis managed down from a market cap ten times bigger.
Nothing more than a one trick pony gamble with a decent div at present.
Impact of Iranian military strikes into Kurdish Iraq? Unlikely to be positive. My dividends going elsewhere until arbitration settled, KRG politics more clear or there are more geographically diverse reserves.

Or: potential investors look at a buyback and think the BoD hasn’t got any clear strategy over what to do with the excess money.
Surely spending it on acquisitions to increase income is the way to go. If there are no decent acquisitions and they don’t want to pay down debt just give us a special dividend and let us decide what to do with it.
Tinkering with financial ratios doesn’t do much for me.

Although there are numerous examples to show that despite the theory, the share price doesn’t always increase.

Seav, I fully understand the theory of buybacks I just don’t think the theoretical benefits to shareholders ever get back to us. Shell, Aviva, HSBC etc etc I’d rather have had a special dividend then I could choose whether to buy a bigger stake in the company or invest elsewhere.
But as you never know where the share price would have been without the buybacks I guess we’ll never know for sure.

Northfork- your logic seems obvious but experience seems to indicate that share prices are more driven by emotion than logic.
I’ve watched years of Shell buybacks and can’t identify any positive benefit. No obvious short term impact on share price, nil increase in divi (over the planned 4%). Overall share price down about 40% on US equivalents who maintained their dividend with excess profits.
However, given DEC’s already significant divi and exchange rate advantage (as per Trek’s post) perhaps this buyback will have tangible benefit.

I’d say the impact on share price is felt on the day of the trade, not later at cancellation.
My logic would be that the buyback is just creating extra demand against a normal supply hence a price rise.
The bigger question is “is this rise sustained or just limited to the days when buybacks happen?”

I’d say that’s great news. If the Iraq Federal Court is over ruling Iraq Govt decisions, KRG must be laughing all the way to the bank.
Time to re-issue those BB PSCs and either cut Genel back in or compensate us.

Isn’t there a chance she’s right? 5.7M of the population on benefits, about 15% of those of working age. How long can a Govt just keep collecting more money from a decreasing working population to fund an increasing number of benefit claimants and pensioners?
Something has to change.