Member Info for Jigger_1

ITS – aka AE, aka MF etc etc

The bad news with Nationwide - was that there was a ‘news blackout’ about Leakbot.

The latest RNS has improved matters slightly. However, only 6,000 units with their largest insurer and no more confirmed rollouts over the ‘coming months’, places the company’s near term growth numbers in serious jeopardy.

I’ve been warning about growth in this company for approx one month now.

During that period you have not recognised any of these issues and promoted the company without question.

Yet, in that time, the share price has fallen c.30%!

So, I think I may have been more right than wrong here.

These are also the other red flags still to consider, such as: 👇

- The company’s credibility - by inferring that no placing was required last Nov, then arranging one just 9 days later

- Overpromising growth\progress last December and failing to report any meaningful execution to date

- No new significant contracts signed

- Very poor news flow from the company (until very recently following a crashing SP)

- No contracts or progress updates resulting from current projects i.e. IAG, the ‘rapid’ G4S pilot etc

- Low interest from water companies i.e. Portsmouth Water

- General market conditions regarding future placings, AIM cancellations etc

- Competition from Smart Meters & AI\technical improvements

- A saturated market of other leak detection devices

- Questions regarding the delivery and execution of existing contracts e.g. Nationwide rollout in Q1 (they’re late), South West & Portsmouth Water etc

- A ‘failed’ emergency trading update - in an attempt to shore up the SP (containing no news of substance but resulting in the market dropping the SP a further 7% on the day)

- No growth numbers provided during the trading update – why the silence?

- Questions regarding another placing being required in the short term (what would new investors now demand with a falling SP – warrants, major dilution etc?)

(see my recent previous posts for rationale and relevant links)

IMHO

2PHV - Cassiopeia Services is run by Stefania Barbaglio, who is a non executive member on Ondo’s board.

Unfortunately, she’s about as BIASED as you can get!

GM – it’s the truth.

I have a low tolerance level, for deceptive keyboard warriors who use numerous alias’s to try and make cheap personal remarks.

He was asked several times (politely) to desist but continued.

Non his ‘personal details’ are disclosed on my post but his pathetic charade was.

Not a good look for a TR1 holder at all!

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Current shareholders are probably realising that the next company results RNS (due in July) may well fall far short of the expected growth targets – which for a ‘high growth’ company will negatively impact the SP significantly.

To prove the model, Ondo needs to deliver high growth and quickly. The next results numbers are crucial. They need to match or exceed the company’s previous growth rate i.e.

- Registered Customers >77% - circa 150,000+

- Leakbot Units Shipped or Sold >61% - circa 30,000+

- Revenue >24% - circa £1.5 million

If the numbers fail, the business is stalling or even in decline.

Without growth – revenue declines, confidence declines and the SP declines even further

Factoring in this with a possible placing and the risks here are very high.

Investors ‘confirmation bias’ is nice to have with a rising SP. However, it can also be a dangerous tool when trying to catch a falling knife.

Some posters have effectively argued that the company is: in fantastic shape; everything is looking great and there is absolutely nothing to worry about – even as the share price is collapsing around them!

I disagree.

I believe Ondo may be wearing the ‘Emperor’s Clothes’ and the risks of further significant SP falls here are very real.

If you can’t see this now, you may soon find that (similar to the Emporer’s condition), you could also get your ‘pants pulled down’ as well!

I appreciate this isn’t what current shareholders want to hear but ‘better to be prepared than sorry’.

“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” — Ayn Rand

IMHO

‘No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.’ – Plato

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There has been some suggestion that a bit of spread betting and some low liquidity could be an explanation the current collapsing SP.

I’m pretty sure that this wouldn’t account for a huge c.£15 million loss in Ondo’s market cap and the SP crashing circa 50% in the previous three months!?!

There are a number of worrying concerns and red flags which have driven the SP down since early January, such as: 👇

- The company’s credibility - by inferring that no placing was required last Nov, then arranging one just 9 days later

- Overpromising growth\progress last December and failing to report any meaningful execution to date

- No new significant contracts signed

- Very poor news flow from the company

- No contracts or progress updates resulting from current projects i.e. IAG, the ‘rapid’ G4S pilot etc

- Low interest from water companies i.e. Portsmouth Water

- General market conditions regarding future placings, AIM cancellations etc

- Competition from Smart Meters & AI\technical improvements

- A saturated market of other leak detection devices

- Questions regarding the delivery and execution of existing contracts e.g. Nationwide rollout in Q1, South West & Portsmouth Water etc

- A ‘failed’ emergency trading update - in an attempt to shore up the SP (containing no news of substance but resulting in the market dropping the SP a further 7% on the day)

- No growth numbers provided during the trading update – why the silence?

- Questions regarding another placing being required in the short term (what would new investors now demand with a falling SP – warrants, major dilution etc?)

(see my recent previous posts for rationale and relevant links)

Geoff - Nationwide’s HQ and customer services is based at One Nationwide Plaza, Columbus, Ohio.

So you think they would have some information about Leakbot?

GM - Sales Section in Nationwide’s Property Insurance customer services department.

Contact number is on the Nationwide website. Give them call and have a go yourself?

MF – I think you’re asking why I’ve gone from bullish to bearish.

Simple really – due to all company red flags I’ve seen recently.

I’ve shared my concerns with rationale and links (facts) but some posters don’t seem to accept them now?

Yet – when I was previously bullish, I was thanked and my research accepted as true!

Which is it – am I a liar or not?

I understand that you may not want to hear bad news about the company but that doesn’t mean that the information isn’t factual.

This is just an obscure chat board to discuss the pro’s and cons of a company. I would hope the issues can be discussed without personalising matters and concentrate on the company’s performance (or lack of it) accordingly.

I hope you enjoy the rest of your day.

GM – I’m not suggesting they don’t have a contract but that it’s not been executed in Q1 (as promised via the RNS).

It’s the delay in the delivery of the contract I’m highlighting – hence the Q’s below.

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CF stated in the Nationwide RNS over 5 months ago that:

“We look forward to making a success of the first state deployments in early 2024 and expanding from there."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ONDO/nationwide-partners-with-ondo-for-leakbot-in-u-s/16207984

The company then RNS’d a trading update on 160424 stating:

‘In the US, the Company is in the early stages of its rollout’.

What does that statement actually mean, in relation to Nationwide? I think some questions need to be asked, such as the below: 👇

Why is the company ‘in the early stages’ still after 5 months – the RNS previously stated it was happening in Q1?

Are they just talking about sending a few Leakbots in the early stages now?

Have any been shipped at all?

Is there any marketing taking place prior to Leakbot’s launch? Where is it?

Why aren’t Nationwide staff aware – is someone going to tell them? What about training? If so – when and how long will that take?

Why didn’t you provide some positive numbers about this contract on the trading update – it was a perfect opportunity to do so?

Is the company stalling for time now, due to execution and delivery problems?

It’s Q2 now! If not in Q1 – is it Q2, H2, this year?

Won’t the lack of progress here affect growth numbers and revenue forecasts?

The company will still be burning cash during any delays. Could this mean you require more funds soon via a capital raise?

I hope someone can come up with the answers soon!

IMHO

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I’ve been making a few enquiries on Nationwide’s Insurance contract with Ondo. 👇

https://www.nationwide.com/

Leakbot is not exclusive to Nationwide, who have several other products available, including alternative water leak detection systems.

I was expecting to find lots of information around Nationwide’s newly released product with Ondo.

Unfortunately, I can’t find Leakbot anywhere!

No links via their homepage, negative results via their search facility, zero marketing material!?!

Checked general customer review sites – no mention of Leakbot being supplied to anyone by Nationwide?

Conducted a general web search and there is only the initial the contract announcement (from 5 months ago) that I can find?

So I contacted their HQ in the US, who stated they ‘don’t know about it’!?!

(make your own enquiries with them if you’re interested).

The Evolving Landscape Of Smart Water Meters 👇

Expanding Meter Capabilities

Smart water meters are seeing a greater need for precision in order to meet the efficiency and sustainability goals of water utilities. Bindler explained, “The biggest trend we see is the move toward solid-state meters, whether electromagnetic or ultrasonic. These meters, devoid of moving parts, offer heightened accuracy, reliability, and durability over time, significantly reducing maintenance costs.”

Moreover, Bindler highlighted innovative trends in hardware, such as the integration of additional sensors within residential meters. “Embedding pressure sensors, temperature sensors, or even acoustic leak detection capabilities within meters is gaining traction,” he added. “This enhances the meters’ functionality and provides utilities with a more comprehensive understanding of network conditions.”

Data Demand Drives Software Developments

Metering-related software alone is expected to grow at 12.7% annually. A major driver is the focus beyond traditional billing toward proactive customer engagement. Bindler elaborated, “Smart meter data can be leveraged to build more proactive relationships with customers. Utilities can analyze individual water usage, identify potential leaks, and provide customers with personalized tips to reduce their water footprint.”

https://www.wateronline.com/doc/the-evolving-landscape-of-smart-water-meters-0001

I believe there are a number of similar systems out there and improving rapidly, via the application of AI.

You may find the links below helpful 👇

Siemens data platform helps Northumbrian Water to tackle household leaks

The water utility is undergoing a major rollout of smart meters, which report data back to the cloud on an hourly basis. The Siemens Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solution will allow NWG to analyse this data to identify household consumption anomalies and alert customers of potential leaks on their properties.

https://press.siemens.com/global/en/pressrelease/siemens-data-platform-helps-northumbrian-water-tackle-household-leaks

https://www.siemens.com/global/en/products/energy/grid-software/energyip-meter-data-management/energyip-water.html

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That’s why Portsmouth Water are ordering miniscule amounts of Leakbots over the next 5 years 👇

Portsmouth Water Resources Management Plan 2024

‘We are now confident that such devices add value to the customers of Portsmouth Water, as bulk buying provides a discount rate. Recognising that smart water meters will eventually provide universal leak and high usage alerts we will contain the deployment of these devices to the first 5 years of WRMP24 (AMP8) and offer the devices out to customers at a rate of 500 per year, meaning a total deployment of 2,500 in the period, a 150% increase on AMP7.’

https://www.portsmouthwater.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/10B-rdWRMP24-Appendix-10B-Water-Efficiency-Strategy.pdf

Only 500 a year for the next 5 years – not good!

Portsmouth Water supply a population of circa 700,000. That equates to an annual penetration rate of less than 0.01%!

Water companies have been directed through regulations by UK Gov and are already committed to the huge rollout of smart meters nationally (throughout AMP8 and for at least the following 5 years).

If the water industry takes the same view as Portsmouth Water, Leakbot will just become a temporary PR gimmick for them and supplied to just a handful of customers!

IMHO

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Bladey – it could affect Ondo in two ways, as follows:

1 - Smart meters will perform a similar function to Leakbot (albeit with less sensitivity). Subsequently, this reduces Ondo’s ability to sell and market Leakbot to the water industry.

2 – Smart meters would enable the water industry to deal directly with the Insurers and do their own deals i.e. cut out Ondo. This could directly affect Ondo’s core business model of providing a water detection device via the insurance industry.

This isn’t just my view, Portsmouth Water have come to the same conclusion, please see below: 👇

Portsmouth Water Business Plan 2025 to 2030

Benefits of a smart metering programme…

… ‘We’ve opened a dialogue with insurance companies, some of whom already offer leak detection devices (such as the ‘Leakbot’ already mentioned) in return for lower household insurance premia. Smart meters would perform a similar function, avoiding the need for new devices.’

https://www.portsmouthwater.co.uk/downloads/pr24/PRT01-excellence-in-water-always.pdf

So, Portsmouth Water are now looking into marketing Smart Meters to Ondo’s core insurance market, as a potential alternative to Ondo’s Leakbot.

BandB – well we’re 8 years into the ‘best product’ on the market and even the original parent company gave up on it in 2020! 👇

Leakbot has been in existence since 2016 and was subsequently written off by its own parent company Homeserve, due to demand being “slower than expected”.

Homeserve writes off £15 million leak detector as a pipe dream

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/homeserve-writes-off-15m-leak-detector-as-pipe-dream-zjzsjwgvm

After 8 years on the market, you would expect Leakbot to be widespread – unfortunately, it’s not?

ITS – I don’t think dealing with small keyboard warriors, who then start crying about it, fits the definition of cyber stalking (following several polite requests to desist)?

The offence of cyber stalking is a criminal offence involving repeated threats and harassment (Protection from Harassment Act 1997).

If you actually believe anything that you’re saying, I would urge you to report the matter to the police and ask them to investigate it. Please let me know how much of their time you waste and the result?

Again - ‘Argumentum ad hominem’

Anyway, back to the real world and the company.

I hope you enjoy the rest of your weekend.

ITS,MF - Thank you for engaging with me and for your personal opinions about the company’s ongoing issues.

I don’t agree with most of your rationale for several reasons (which I’ll try to reply to later when I have a bit more time).

However, can I respectfully request you consider the below, regarding the specific comments about me please:

‘Argumentum ad hominem’ – a type of argument or attack that appeals to prejudice or feelings or irrelevantly impugns another person’s character instead of addressing the facts or claims made by the latter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktxlGccmSjY&t=54s

My motives are to make sound investments decisions based on research (sometimes bullish & sometimes bearish). I assume most other investors, also prefer to hear both sides of the debate.

If you’re seeking ‘confirmation bias’, you may wish to participate more in the other closed chat group you have referred to (there is still plenty of that bias continuing over the last couple of days).

I’m sure anyone reading posts on here, is more than capable, in deciding whether to ignore the information or take it into consideration (no matter who it’s from).

If you feel able to stick to the company issues without resorting to ‘Argumentum ad hominem’ in future posts, I would be very grateful.

I hope you have a pleasant day.

“When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.” – Socrates

Just one example below of more competition for Ondo. 👇

‘H2know takes measurements from your pipe every second and uses our patented technology and machine learning approach to translate those signals to accurate water flow estimates, leak alerts, and water insights.’

https://conservationlabs.com/

- No plumber & no pipe cutting required

- Significant Investors & Insurance Partners

- US based with recent $7.5 million funding

With regards to your point on Smart Meters – you may find the below interesting 👇

Smart meters, AI and a saturated market

It appears that Ondo may suffer from the ‘law of unintended consequences.’

Portsmouth Water Business Plan 2025 to 2030

Benefits of a smart metering programme…

… ‘We’ve opened a dialogue with insurance companies, some of whom already offer leak detection devices (such as the ‘Leakbot’ already mentioned) in return for lower household insurance premia. Smart meters would perform a similar function, avoiding the need for new devices.’

https://www.portsmouthwater.co.uk/downloads/pr24/PRT01-excellence-in-water-always.pdf

So Portsmouth Water are now looking into marketing Smart Meters to Ondo’s core insurance market, as a potential alternative to Ondo’s Leakbot.

Obviously, Leakbot and Smart Meters are different devices. In my opinion, Leakbot offers a far superior service and benefit to households in water leak prevention.

However, your average retail householder won’t know the difference and won’t be bothered, providing they think a (any) device detects leaks and it saves them money on their home insurance.

(Just google ‘water leak detection devices’ and look at the products list. There are thousands out there!)

IMHO