Member Info for JG68

MW increased the last three days and the TR1 came out today after they increased yesterday.

Really can't imagine Cosmen telling any short fund his intentions.

The company does not appear to be in financial distress like for example PFC.

I'm wondering whether the Cosmen / Garat bromance is coming to an end, or we are approaching the endgame of the biggest orchestrated demise in a company by a major holder and CEO to regain control of Alsa on the cheap.

Wealthtransfer

Think it was obvious they were buying yesterday given the PM, guess we will know when they start again.

This seemed to plummet this morning when the newsflow about Labours plan to nationalise the railways spread.

Stockepedia did a small news feed which showed up as an alert for Mobico.

I would have thought that if he is going to make a move, he would mop up what he needs whilst in the 50s, unless we head down to 40s.

Wealthtransfer

It's making me wonder why he purchased so many millions of shares in 70s and 80s if he was truly well informed?

I hope he mops up the remaining % so we can all get out quicker than another 2 years.

Unless he's buying this afternoon, could be hammered by close today

The debt matures in stages between 26 and 31 I think.

If their ultimate goal is to gain control of Alsa, surely there's enough value in disposing of the US/UK and Germany businesses to repay the debt, speaking very simplistically

It would have to be the highest price paid in the last year wouldn't it?

Hopefully he's getting worried that the rest of the business will impact Alsa.

Speak of the devil.

Think it depends if they are in concert with Azvalor.

Between them over 26% now

I'm beginning to wonder how much / little Cosmens actually does know.

Why would you buy 10s of millions of shares in the 70/80s either side of Xmas if you had half an idea what was coming and you could buy them considerably cheaper?

Not sure I get that.

JW

Out of interest.

When you say you sold some you bought at 54 but still have a fair holding.

Does that mean for example you have a holding that is in the red, added some at 54 but was still in the red, and then sold those ones from the same holding?

Reason I ask is because whenever I do that, it reduces what it says my overall loss is, because it is thinking that I have sold those recent buys at a loss, even though say I sold them for more than what I paid.

It's confusing, similarly with AJB if I sell and buy back within 30 days, sometimes the system says my purchase price is what I sold them for ( 30 day rule) which is annoying because it's up to me to do my accounts for tax purposes!!!

Although it's always worrying, possibly it's a minor hedge against any long position, even 500 k shares can do a lot of damage with their small algo sells.

But it is a risk at these levels because any tr1 with cosmens increasing their holding will have a positive effect, you would have thought.

Like yesterday afternoon it seemed more like something in the background (possible off book buying) which caused it to rise all afternoon.

Anyone think that this afternoon was a mini short pump to sell a load in the closing auction, if that makes sense?

Back to 92 by Tuesday, this really tests your patience

End of the day wealthtransfer, if you don't need the money, SP will be considerably higher than this in years time, subject to guidance being met and things progress as they set out on Monday.

Alternatively there are external factors that could impact a lot quicker, as you say inflation / rate cuts, NA sale, Cosmens / other party buyout.

Not going to bang on about, but surprised after this latest setback that a new CEO is not also forthcoming. A lot of this started before Stamp was appointed.

We'll be OK eventually.

Or Cosmens calls time and just puts us out of our misery, takes it out, sells off the US, UK and Germany and moves forward with Alsa.

How else could he regain control of Alsa without it costing him a lot more in 12-18 months?

If that's his ultimate goal.

All I know is we were doing OK until us pre market scuppered that. Skanks.

Which is most of us JC!

My averages are now 85 and 71, but have massed a large amount of shares to get there.

Similar to you at ITV Carrington.

Eventually management will get this right, but until HY and the q3 TU, I'm taking guidance as not set in stone given the last 6 months.

Long term hold for me now until 25 at least.

Very similar boat Paadyboy.

Mine are in 3 lots.

In the isa I had 50k at 120s, doubled in Oct at 58, and added another 30k at 54 yesterday. And the other largish one has 80k at 75, thinking about making that one a round 100 which would make it 71 if i add at 55. The other is about 55 in a sipp.

So similar amounts. Then that's it.

The problem arises if/when your holdings turn green, missing out on the rich rewards by selling a load because you think you've won the lottery by being break even again.

So smokeytime you're no alone.

Too right paddyboy.

I've been winding myself for too long here , worrying too much only exacerbated by further paper losses, but I just ask myself 2 questions, do I need access to any of the money for at least another 2 years, no I don't, and do I think they will go BK, no I don't, I think it's reasonable to suggest they could sell Alsa now and completely wipe our the debt if they wanted to. Worst scenario I see is future cash raise if business doesn't improve in next 2 years and interest rates rise further resulting in difficulties when some of the debt becomes due. Not to mention the NA disposal.

I don't really get why sone people say they are living off their debt given the undrawn RCF and 284 million in cash.

I was actually at break even on my largest holding in January, didn't sell so it's suck it up time!!

Sneedway

It's not as bleaker a picture you're painting imo.

Re the Germany provisions, the cash outflow will be 30mill for 24 and 11 million thereafter.

There is an expected loss of 5 mill expected for 24 and then a return to profit 25 onwards.

A large part of the adjusted items (78 million) affecting cashflows were one off non recurring.

They still manged to oay the bills comfortably with debt stable. That in itself will result in a reduction in debt this FY 24 out of the additional FCF.

The guidance of 185 to 205 I feel is very conservative, with the lower end considered by them as very pessimistic.

Impression I got was the different divisions are at different stages of recovery, and 24 is a further recovery year, with 25 being in much better shape.

This doesn't assume a successful NA sale.

Plus come the end of this year some of these unprofitable contracts can either be renegotiated or just dumped!!

Imo for a company that is forecasting say 200 mill OP this year with good FCF to pay the bills,50 odd p is dirt cheap if you give a 18-24 month timescale.

But what do I know, I'm 10s of thousands in the red!!!

Ridiculously overpriced!!!