The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
End of the day wealthtransfer, if you don't need the money, SP will be considerably higher than this in years time, subject to guidance being met and things progress as they set out on Monday.
Alternatively there are external factors that could impact a lot quicker, as you say inflation / rate cuts, NA sale, Cosmens / other party buyout.
Not going to bang on about, but surprised after this latest setback that a new CEO is not also forthcoming. A lot of this started before Stamp was appointed.
We'll be OK eventually.
Or Cosmens calls time and just puts us out of our misery, takes it out, sells off the US, UK and Germany and moves forward with Alsa.
How else could he regain control of Alsa without it costing him a lot more in 12-18 months?
If that's his ultimate goal.
Which is most of us JC!
My averages are now 85 and 71, but have massed a large amount of shares to get there.
Similar to you at ITV Carrington.
Eventually management will get this right, but until HY and the q3 TU, I'm taking guidance as not set in stone given the last 6 months.
Long term hold for me now until 25 at least.
Very similar boat Paadyboy.
Mine are in 3 lots.
In the isa I had 50k at 120s, doubled in Oct at 58, and added another 30k at 54 yesterday. And the other largish one has 80k at 75, thinking about making that one a round 100 which would make it 71 if i add at 55. The other is about 55 in a sipp.
So similar amounts. Then that's it.
The problem arises if/when your holdings turn green, missing out on the rich rewards by selling a load because you think you've won the lottery by being break even again.
So smokeytime you're no alone.
Too right paddyboy.
I've been winding myself for too long here , worrying too much only exacerbated by further paper losses, but I just ask myself 2 questions, do I need access to any of the money for at least another 2 years, no I don't, and do I think they will go BK, no I don't, I think it's reasonable to suggest they could sell Alsa now and completely wipe our the debt if they wanted to. Worst scenario I see is future cash raise if business doesn't improve in next 2 years and interest rates rise further resulting in difficulties when some of the debt becomes due. Not to mention the NA disposal.
I don't really get why sone people say they are living off their debt given the undrawn RCF and 284 million in cash.
I was actually at break even on my largest holding in January, didn't sell so it's suck it up time!!
Sneedway
It's not as bleaker a picture you're painting imo.
Re the Germany provisions, the cash outflow will be 30mill for 24 and 11 million thereafter.
There is an expected loss of 5 mill expected for 24 and then a return to profit 25 onwards.
A large part of the adjusted items (78 million) affecting cashflows were one off non recurring.
They still manged to oay the bills comfortably with debt stable. That in itself will result in a reduction in debt this FY 24 out of the additional FCF.
The guidance of 185 to 205 I feel is very conservative, with the lower end considered by them as very pessimistic.
Impression I got was the different divisions are at different stages of recovery, and 24 is a further recovery year, with 25 being in much better shape.
This doesn't assume a successful NA sale.
Plus come the end of this year some of these unprofitable contracts can either be renegotiated or just dumped!!
Imo for a company that is forecasting say 200 mill OP this year with good FCF to pay the bills,50 odd p is dirt cheap if you give a 18-24 month timescale.
But what do I know, I'm 10s of thousands in the red!!!
Pokerchips
Just to clarify.
Are they delaying the NA sale until after the schools bids are finalised, therefore giving potential suitors clearer future margin potential with improved contracts and inflation linked increases built in ?
Pokerchips
Absolutely agree TBH, "vomiting " my discontent on here is harmful to me and annoying to others.
I half expected a 15-20% kicking today, and now that I'm comfortable with a longer timescale and am confident that moving forward new contracts will have more protective safeguards in place, I actually feel better and calmer around this as a solid longer term investment, especially at these levels. 25/26 is just around the corner when you think about it.
Pokerchips
To add , the lower end of the 24 guidance is seen as a most pessimistic scenario considering the stated headwinds in the bridge to meet that guidance.
I guess at the end of the day, the 22-27 evolve strategy was always a 5 year plan, and even when they presented it, margin recovery was not expected to peak until the later years of the plan.
So it's been a very bumpy year but definitely green shoots as you say.
I actually found Stamps answers and explanations gave me more confidence than the CEO.
Not many questions also, none by telephone, I wonder if that RBC analyst downgrades again below the 80.
At least we know that margin recovery in the US to pre covid levels is 26 without a disposal.
Hopefully when earnings are visible after bidding in q3, possible suitors will see clearer future earnings to justify a half decent offer to buy it.
Paddyboy
I think they have 894 million unutilised, 294 cash and 600 RCF, but FCF actually increased slightly, clearly the bills can be paid, any cut in rates will help, we just have to wait it out. What's another couple of years to reap some rewards as long as you don't need the cash.