The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Belated thanks for the reply and the DF link. Apologies but only just caught up.
Lee, if you are right and the US still has 8000 tons of gold, why haven’t they allowed a full audit, since (I think) the 70s?
I would be amazed if the US had anything like that amount and equally amazed if the Chinese don’t have over 20,000 tons.
No idea why anyone would buy US debt. Think I might prefer Argentinas!
MH01, it definitely is at this gold price, but I would have thought that if we get to 5000, then all p/es would explode higher. But you can halve it to 10, and it’s still a pretty big number.
It’s absolutely not a forecast. Just a bit of fun, playing with assumptions and showing the potential that some don’t appreciate.
Quite agree Speedy. You could drop the aisc, increase production via haul shaft and increase the shares a lot. Number is still over £2.50, and in some cases much higher than that. Especially if you added in a very profitable Telfer at $5000.
Quady, he did build some good roads though and looking at the potholes in Sussex we need some good roads built.
Basis aisc at 1500 and 350,000 production and a p/e of 20, and cable at 1.25, 6bn shares, I get to 326p. Well you did ask speedy.
Obviously all numbers are inaccurate assumptions, but it’s a start.
Sand, I saw 12 angry men in Brighton a few weeks back. Excellent play and great cast.
Sadly a lot more than 12 angry people on here. Don’t know why as the direction is as clear as Day to me….
Unimag, and others. There is nothing much wrong with Telfer the mine. Ok it is high cost and with a high cost operator like a major, so it may be sub economic for Newmont. But under the right operator who can strip out the fat and not burden it with massive HO recharges, it can be a nice cash cow, especially at au prices over $2,000. If you look at what Shaun and the rest at NS did to Jundee, you will know what Shaun can do to Telfer.
Anyhow it will go as a package and with the ROLR there really is only one buyer.
Steve, I suggest you run some numbers on the expected cash flow from Havieron at say $500 aisc and Telfer at say $12-1400 aisc. Mind boggling.
Tildo, actually 18months if my memory serves me. Nice to see the Sunday Roast guys getting it. Wish others would.
Goldworm, I would offer to get Antipa out of their mess with an offer for the asset, not the company, and not till we have tucked away Winu. Antipa have absolutely nowhere to go.
Ggp will have monopsony over the area.
96, it does not make commercial sense for Shaun to give a running commentary on what he is planning, nor how it’s going. He has stated his desire in the past and we should be comfortable that he is in the process of executing the plan.
I presume you know the plan?
SaS, I think the contractural obligation of the tolling agreement would be passed on with the sale. You can’t sell a company to avoid that. You would have to bankrupt it imo, and that wouldn’t necessarily negate it completely.
Ace, with respect I don’t think Ggp are in play at all. That said if ggp rises quickly to say 15p we could be seeing the result of Elliott buying.
However I am not quite sure why everyone thinks Elliott will be involved. Virtually all mining and exploration companies are on their knees, so there is a lot to choose from. Sandeep will know of many assets and mines from his time at NC and his specific knowledge of Telfer etc is now dated.
JB, absolutely. If anyone is daft enough to think that Elliott/Biswas is the answer, I dread to think what the question might be. Probably involves being bent over backwards with them holding a red hot poker.....
Anyone who knows anything about Cornford will probably expect the opposite of anything he says or suggests. If it came from a reputable source I might think differently. Just my opinion though.
I think Malva would be closer if they knocked a zero off….
MH01, you are all over this, so many thanks from me for explaining the likely direction of travel. From what I have learned today, I would say that some of the numbers been bandied about regarding the purchase price are way too high. Plus some are not thinking big enough. This is a huge opportunity and one that Shaun has been readying for, pretty much since he joined the company. From a Newmont point of view, this is more like getting rid of an expensive mine, with high costs and an ageing processing plant, plus a potential mine that has a ROLR clause embedded in it. From Shauns point of view its an opportunity to make Telfer efficient (see Northern Star's acquisition of Jundee), use the processing plant to extract cash flow while (possibly) permitting a new plant, and get Havieron in toto and get the production up to 6m tpa. A keen seller and one willing buyer. Looks like its all coming together only as Shaun could have scripted.
IMO!
If I was Shaun I would start the bidding at book value for the three assets. I would fund it mostly with debt and associated hedging. Then add in a modest ASX placing and listing and some more shares for Wyloo. This would be massively accretive, and transformational for the sp by the end of this year. IMO.
Addicknt, I think you are assuming there is a future for Solgold. I am not so sure.
At this price they should do a royalty sale and a share buyback.