Member Info for jedclampit

JEFFERIES CUTS PREMIER FOODS PRICE TARGET TO 41 (52) PENCE - 'BUY'

So good progress made this week just how long will it be before we are back over 50p?

What's going on here, you would have thought that with the ftse well up approx 150 points Saga would be moving back up to 18p+ .
All the signs are good , so why are we not?

The whole market started off well today with ftse up about 50 point ,250 & 350 were also up well but now most showing big falls and ftse only just about. So could be a bit too early to hold any gains.

It doesn't always pay to buy shares in the first few mins, just look at some of the spreads out there today they range from 0.5% to 10% which means many prices may not be stable to hold up. Let's see what happens to the sp in the day today.

Funny how all the supermarkets were saying they were up 10-15% for end of March first week of April, now tesco's and others are saying they are down 10% and want us to go back shopping in the stores.
I think many / most consumers have been buying the must to have products but have been leaving lots of impulse lines where they make all there profits. Will be interesting to read pfd's take of it in a few weeks.

So far the dow is down some 500 points, at this rate it doesn't look good for the Ftse on tuesday in which case we could see AA down a bit or a lot !

I am not saying they don't have a good long term prospect I am just saying it may not be within the next few weeks / months.
The Ftse had a good few days last week and AA went higher but with the death toll of coronavirus now running at about 1,000 a day and could be for the next week or so, the likelyhood of a futher shut down for another 3 weeks is looking all but certain.
Therefore many companies will have less income and profits this year than first thought, so I think it is very possible that the markets could have another fall this week including AA.
Nothing is for certain here and if a number of you still think this is now only going one way up I hope you all load up on Tuesday and make lots of money.

Long term you should be right, all I am saying is nothing is for certain and the sp could still be very unstable in the next few weeks with another drop next week. But if you are 100% sure this is going up next week then I guess you will be loading up on tuesday regardless, I hope you do well.

Many on here think the sp is now only going up, but although the ftse had a good few days last week and AA push forward to 20p it all depends on what happens next.
Many are hoping that the stay at home restrictions might be lifted next week and hence the normal business could start to recover pushing the stock market even higher, but we had a bad day yeasterday with almost a 1,000 cases of corona and if we continue with that rate over the weekend with say another 3-4,000 the government will not lift any restrictions and the market could take another dive with AA going back down.
Nothing is certain so it might be better to keep your powder dry for a few days next week.
I also hold these with an ave of about 60p , before i bought more at 15p ish so not trying to deramp as a none holder.

And that is in Billions, although most of it is in bonds , but a very long way to go so maybe the sp is not that far off considering all the debt.

NET DEBT
Year ended 31 January 2019 £m 2018 £m
Total net debt 2,715 2,684
AA plc Trading EBITDA 341 391
AA Intermediate Trading EBITDA4 337 393
Net debt ratio5 8.0x 6.9x
Does this help

Look we have all been there, we have all followed a share for a long time to it's lows then when it's starts to move and we all think NOW is the time to load up, but we all know this is a gamble like any share is and although we all think this will go up more next week the market has the art to come back and bite us all in the bum when it shouldn't.
Good luck if you do, but I would spread it.

It's not the end of the day yet !!

Nice to see the sp going up to 20p today but now I think we will see it drop back to about 17p on profit taking.

Goodness me what has happened to you, you have posted on here for years and always seemed to be a sort of even stevens poster but within the last few weeks / months you have changed to a very negative poster. I am not sure if that is just for AA or is it that over the years you have lost good money after bad and turned very negative about most shares. Or is it that you are just having some fun with others emotions.?

I have been in these for 8 - 10 years and every time we get near to the yearly results everyone starts to say pfd should have done well and we should start to see the sp going back above the 50p price at least.
But every time we get the results out there is always some reason why they haven't made the progress they should have made and after a build up in the sp to the results we always see a drop back to a lower level with the same old talk ( it's a good time to get in on the ground floor).
Is this going to be any different?

I think there has ben some selling today because it's the end of the fin year, 5th April etc.
Next week we could see this start to move back up to 40p+ no trouble.
The people that make the bet call now are the ones that will benefit in the months to come with some very good profits.

Looks to me like they have the debt sorted and are NOT too worried about it.
The AA has proved resilient through previous economic downturns and the steps we are now taking will help us maintain that resilience. The management team has successfully turned the operational and commercial performance of the AA around in the last two years and remains focused on navigating the challenges ahead.
As at 31 January 2020, the Group had cash and cash equivalents of £149m6 and an available Working Capital Facility of £50m. We remained well within our financial covenants at year end.
Trading EBITDA up 3% to c.£350m (FY19: £341m), in line with market expectations; PBT more than doubled to c.£107m (FY19: £53m)
· Capex of c.£69m (FY19: £82m) in line with guidance
· Free cash flow (pre-dividends, refinancing costs and bond buy-back) up significantly to c.£83m (FY19: £12m), in line with guidance
· Completion of the triennial review of UK defined benefit pension scheme to 31 March 2019 results in a significant reduction to the technical provisions deficit of 64% to £131m (31 March 2016: £366m). Annual cash saving expected to be c.£6m per annum year on year
· Completion of a consultation process to close the CARE section of the UK defined benefit pension scheme to future accruals reduces the pension cash costs by c.£4m per annum. The consultation has resulted in an enhancement to the defined contribution scheme being agreed for affected employees which will cost c.£11m over three years starting from 1 April 2020
· Continued proactive debt management underpinned by improving operational performance
o £32m of bond buybacks completed, A notes £3m and B notes £29m
o Average debt maturities extended from 3.3 years to 3.9 years following refinancing in February 2020 of £325m of A5 notes with new A8 notes at 5.5% interest rate

Goodness, what's going on here pfd is up when the ftse is down, could this be the brake out up to 40p?