Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Not the problem with assets, other AIM companies in our sector have far less in terms of asset quality and value but a far better SP & MCAP.
it’s the fact that the share register has been used as a “Dusty Bin” for the last 3 years. Every rise is met with a cavalcade of bucket shops from nightmare fundraisings past running for the door. Add that to PIs who occasionally throw in the towel and you can have some pretty aggressive downdraughts from time to time.
It’s a buy, but only when the warrants (or placing) has cleared in early May.
JD
Going back to our conversation a couple of days ago re: the possibility of a TR1 Distressed Seller, it wouldn’t appear to be the case.
Kibo’s Website has only today (20 April) been updated and it’s showing Sanderson Capital Partners has jumped from 245m to 275m in holdings, so they have bought-up another 30m or so shares (NET) in between any notification to the market and gone over from 10% to 11%.
Sanderson owned a large chunk of the 442m Warrants to be taken up by 3 May, so I think they have probably taken these up and possibly offloaded a few of these at higher prices (guess)?.
Anyway, I think it lends credence to the idea what you are seeing is the warrants being “washed” out into the market by the 3 May, IMO you will see all Warrants (including the BoD’d 50m odd Warrants) taken up on or by 3 May.
https://kibo.energy/index.php/about-us/share-information/
Once we get by 3 May if this is just the Warrants being washed out we I think we will see a jump in SP IMO once all of this is notified to the market of the warrants being taken up and the cash on the books.
JD
I think the new waste to energy declaration and the timing of the new Tanzanian President are related IMO. How much was MCPP worth under Magafuli? How much is it worth under a new more pro external investor President?
This gives them an opportunity to extract maximum value out of MCPP and move on to waste to energy if they think that is where the money is better utilised, and I’d be glad to see the back of Tanzania, the UK is a far better place to plough money into for investments and will have a better premium attached to any share price.
Looking at the waste to energy, I think any start up to get 2 / 3 projects up and running using MAST as a case in point would cost some £10m - £20m IMO. That money can only come from one of three sources, a IPO (like MAST), a sale of assets (like MCPP) or through a massive placing. DYOR.
JD
https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/renewable-energy/two-power-pools-gamble-with-sustainable-growth-in-africa-irena/
Considering the immediate Energy Gap about to unfold in Africa and a Project like MCPP just sitting there idle despite being ready to go at the base of the new EAPP / SAPP Interconnector, I’d expect MCPP is either a go in the next 3 / 6 months under the new Tanzanian President or its sold to someone who can make it happen quickly (the Chinese).
I think we are close to it being sold, personally.
JD
Speaking to a division in my work who have previously delivered Waste-To-Energy Projects (I work within a large Tier 1 national Contractor) and it opens the eyes here to the size of the challenge before Kibo.
It’s not cheap as Energy goes (it has very high technical and environmental requirements), it costs anywhere from £4/5m to £7/8 million per installed Megawatt of Capital Construction Costs (CAPEX) to build / install, the new £300 million Redcar Energy Centre was stated as something that just had planning permission granted and that is a 450,000 tonne facility diverting waste from landfill which will generate 49.9Mw to the grid, so we are looking at £6 million per installed Megawatt of CAPEX. It gets cheaper the bigger the plant you build (economies of scale), so small plants will be more expensive per installed Megawatt of CAPEX!
Even at Mast Energy Size Offtake Agreements of between 5-10Mw’s (with Statkraft), you could be looking at up to £40 - 60m CAPEX costs!
There does however appear to be real investor appetite in the sector and has large local and national government buy-in, funding is apparently ready and available if the investment case is there, ranging anything from a 10 / 90% Equity / Debt splits for particularity high return investment cases, up to 30 / 70% Equity / Debt splits for less attractive returns. So on the face of it Kibo would need serious up front capital to make a go of this if they will be taking on planning permitted / “shovel ready” sites.
Of course, after this when you google the large providers of this kind of technology and kit that goes into these plants the name “AB Impianti (AB Groupo)” doesn’t take long to come up and comes up with over 980 systems / 795Mw previous installed and over 875 systems current maintained and managed around Europe and beyond. So you can already see where LC is going with this, this is the same AB Impianti (AB Groupo) that is providing the engineering systems and funding under a Joint Development Agreement (JDA )with #MAST! It’s safe to assume this is a Statkraft / AB Impianti (AB Groupo) rinse and repeat number:
https://www.gruppoab.com/en/biogas-and-biomethane/
It’s got interesting this, using the same arrangements established at MAST, we could be on to something here and they could get it up and off the ground quickly!
JD
SGB, I think that’s right, a waste to energy business that will be set up with a guaranteed offtake off of Statkraft. No one will touch / invest in this unless the business is 100% ring-fenced and free from non-stop exploration and development costs, that’s why MAST worked. The only other option to that is if they got serious cash from the disposal of either Botswana (I doubt the cash exists there) or more likely Tanzania and they could take a large development figure forward to do a “MAST” but keep it 100% in KIBO. Moz will 100% be kept and developed.
Part of me is leaning on Tanzania being sold (maybe Botswana too and make the company smaller and more focused), because where else would you get that start-up capital here? Waste-To-Energy is a great sector to be in, it’s very popular in government circles because it also deals with Local Authority’s waste issues, but it’s technically very challenging and capital intensive.
JD
Being AIM, expect and be prepared for any scenario!
My own view is it’s the Warrants being washed out prior to the 3 May, don’t think just because the current SP is under the execution price of 0.40p (warrant strike price of those 442m shares that expire on 3 May) they won’t necessarily still be taken / executed. Who knows what myriad of complicated deals and financial structures are going on here with the share register, this company has previous, lest we forget…
I agree with Eyeguy on this, these warrant where repriced in September last year from 0.8p to 0.4p, I fully expect this was done on the understanding with whoever owns them (we can all guess who that is) that they will be taken and I don’t expect there to be a placing to undercut whatever deal is in place.
JD
SS,
It's a perfectly reasonable and plausible scenario. A massive sway of shares here are owned by bucket shops in one guise or another and if it does transpire to be true it's just another drawback of the last three years where uncontrolled confetti has been thrown out without a second thought to the future consequences.
MAST, Moz and dare I even say a MCPP comeback? On an operational basis we could be in for some real movement here but sadly it's all held back by in the short to medium term by offal errors and the wild west fundraising.
JD
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/946590
You know, it's almost exactly 4 years to the day our MoU was announced for MCPP. The Minister who signed off our Mining Licences is still in place, wouldn't it be something if this came back alive?
100% owned and ready to go...
JD
1. Placing on way?
2. Warrant holders forward selling the shares (my favourite);
3. PIs throwing in the towel (probably a bit of this).
The three most likely scenarios, take your pick. Further funds will be kept back until the dust clears on or after 3 May and the first tranche of Warrants expire (or otherwise).
Coetzee here has somehow managed to create a scenario here where we have one single listed asset standing at double our MCAP, remarkable really!
Get out and enjoy the Spring sunshine.
JD
I just filter them all, whenever Lurker (or whatever name he comes back as) reappears I just block him. I just ended up feeling sorry for him, he’s a guy in his mid-70s who’s retired and spends all day every day slamming Kibo / LC on the bulletin boards across different platforms, he can’t have much of a life.
JD
SS, great to see colour come back into your investing face (so to speak) :-)
Ditto, through corrective surgery I can see real light at the end of the tunnel here and my cash (plus a profit) returned to me in the short to medium term.
Once through early May and the immediate Warrants we should be instantly in a better place and SP here.
JD
Some 800m shares churned between LSE / Aquis over the last 5 business days, and today was the biggest single raw share dealing day in terms of shares traded in Kibo History. Some brokers are working like hell to get these 442m shares placed by 3 May, and I’m assuming most are now probably pre-sold now, we should in the next few business days get a deluge of warrants taken which have in effect been pre-sold long since.
If MAST have another 20%+ day tomorrow, our 55% of MAST will in effect be worth north of 100%+ of our own MCAP, ****ing mental, but that is what happens when you have desecrated your share register for the previous 3 years, sooner or later the piper gets paid!
JD
Don't thnk it will take 2 weeks, I think they will announce the first 9Mw Plant going live with an RNS tomorrow / Friday IMHO. From their website:
“This site, which due to contractual conditions precedents may not be identified pre – IPO, is a production – ready site which will enter production immediately once the IPO is completed. This site will add 9MW installed capacity reserve power to the MED stable. This site will create an opportunity to for accelerated commissioning of the Bordesley reserve power project.
POWER GENERATION READY
Freehold site with established infrastructure including 9 MW grid export connection and several world-renowned OEM operating units in situ and live
Permitting in place, G59 commissioned and live, Gas kiosk commissioned and live”
https://med.energy/projects/project-2/
JD
To the original post on this thread, it was me who said "18p". What I actually said:
"18p close. Close in a couple of weeks time? 32p per share. It's a £60m MCAP Company if it funds and delivers it's first 71Mw IMHO, then who knows what it has up it's sleeve"
I'm standing by it...and I'll update you at 4:30pm.
JD
At least 85% is locked away here, between Kibo, St Ant and it’s CEO, how much else is locked away with other investors? When it moves on news in the next few weeks it will move in a fashion IMO.
Of course for balance, illiquid stocks can do that in both directions.
JD