The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
JDT where did you get the Binax now info from?
From Abbots data sheet I can only find symptomatic testing?
*In patients presenting within seven (7) days of symptom onset, BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag
Card achieved 95.6% (86/90) positive percent agreement for samples with Ct < 33
A cohort of patients who presented with symptom onset greater than seven days were enrolled in
the clinical study (n = 161). The positive agreement in patients with symptoms greater than seven
days was 60% (30/50) and negative agreement was 98% (109/111). Therefore, negative results in
patients with symptom onset greater than seven days should be interpreted with caution, as the
sensitivity of the assay decreases over time.
11th Nov 2020 - Intensity Therapeutics Reports Favorable Data of INT230-6 from the Ongoing Phase 1/2 Study (IT-01/KEYNOTE A10) in Patients with Advanced Solid Tumors at SITC 2020
Portage I believe own 9% of Intensity Therapeutics and it seems without other significant news that Portage mcap increased by $100 million within 30 days of that promising news.
$100 million for 9% of Intensity so the market seems to value this news at $1100 million.
Assuming similar excellent initial data for AVA6000 later this year could this be a rough indicator for this inflection point, a $1.1 billion re-rate? Sounds good to me :)
Beyond this
Intensity Therapeutics "We look forward to evaluating the combination of INT230-6 with Keytruda® as well as with Yervoy® in our on-going phase 2 studies"
Pembrolizumab (Keytruda®) is a humanized monoclonal antibody that blocks the interaction between PD-1 (programmed death receptor-1) and its ligands, PD-L1 (programmed death receptor- ligand 1) and PD-L2 (programmed death receptor-ligand 2)
GlobalData has predicted that Merck & Co's immuno-oncology blockbuster, Keytruda (pembrolizumab) is projected to be the best-selling drug by annual revenue in 2023, raking in $22.2bn by 2025.
Keytruda? Im sure we have an Affimer for that as well, AVA04 anti-PD-L1 | VbP TMAC? or Undisclosed Affimer | VbP TMAC?
Hanoi a lot of them are generic and off patent but a royalty is mentioned by AS himself, I had thought maybe its easier to simply get a royalty than setting up the contracts for manufacture, sales, distribution etc.
As pointed out by Iaintittle there will be 20 years of patent for each prodrug, thats a lot of royalties.
As for a take over, I would guess yes that would be very likely if AVA6k is proven in the clinical trials.
As you say potentially the whole chemo market as an opportunity, its hard to put a figure on that, I suppose as little as they could get away with but as much as they have to.
Cheers to all I couldn't have put it better myself and to SB yes that was the current $1billion dollar market for generic doxorubicin.
As Matt and others have pointed out it is very possible to own the entire market for each pro version of chemo drug and indeed to considerably increase that market by multiples.
If you have read the Sept 2020 interim pdf on Avactas website you will see mentioned "Conservatively assume the pre|CISION prodrug versions of these can achieve similar market sizes"
Again also pointed out that if/once the concept is proven then it opens up a whole pipeline of further pro drug versions.
"Potential for a pipeline of pre|CISION pro-drugs, some of which have already been synthesized, with an addressable market of many $bn pa.
Including but not limited to:
• preCISION Velcade
• preCISION Paclitaxel
• preCISION Oxaliplatin
• preCISION Gemcitabine
• preCISION Capecitabine
• preCISION PARP inhibitor
• preCISION PD-1 Inhibitor
• preCISION AKT inhibitor
• preCISION Balixafortide"
I believe Avacta currently have 4 of the above already synthesized (and are working on more), these are;
Drug, Market PA
Duxorubicin $1 billion
Velcade $1.2 billion (2018)
Paclitaxel $3 billion
Oxaliplatin $0.9 billion
Thats $6.1billion PA of which "Conservatively assume the pre|CISION prodrug versions of these can achieve similar market sizes"
Assume a 10% royalty just on the "conservative similar market size" that is $610 million PA
Using a typical pharma multiplier of x16.7 that alone would value the company at $10.1 billion.
All the above PreCision Pro drugs, also Affimer therapeutics and the "holy grail" TMAC platform will hopefully be fully funded by our LFT profits. (Of which I hope there will be many of course:)
When I think of all the above a potential $10 billion MCap does seem ludicrously small and IMO the catalyst to get us there and beyond will be AVA6000 pro doxorubicin, assuming it goes swimmingly of course.
I swear never to mention a $500 billion mcap again as it is a tad OTT ..but it is not impossible:)
What I was really trying to show is that the potential value here is immense and is currently incalculable.
I cant think of any other share that has the potential as this one and wish us all the best of luck for what I hope will be great weeks months and years ahead.
$30 billion market say 10% royalties = $3 billion annual royalty income.
I also believe (correct me if I am wrong) that over half the current $50 billion chemo drug market is off . Would Avacta target that as well? Well why the **** not??
So $25 billion off patent current, using the same multipliers the pro chemo version of this market could become $150 billion.
Take a 10% royalty = $15 billion annual royalty.
Take a typical pharma EBITA multiple of 16.7 = $250 billion Mcap
You could always take it a step further and license the Precision to the rest of the on Patent chemo market, sure why not double the mcap say $500 billion.
All the above thoughts are obviously dependent on very good results, if they are as good as the animal models the **** me we are all future millionaires:) !!!!!!
Porky I posted the below previously based on the first 4 Pro drugs we are targeting.
These are currently off or almost off patent drugs.
We all know Avactas AVA6000 prodoxorubicin is about to start clinical trials and if the data received by end of 2021 is positive this will allow a further pipeline of pro chemo drugs.
If AVA6000 results in humans shows even 25% of what it has shown in animal models it will be a massive improvement on the standard chemo drugs.
Avacta have 3 further prodrugs ready to go immediately on successful data.
TAM
Duxorubicin $1 billion
Velcade $1.2 billion (2018)
Paclitaxel $3 billion
Oxaliplatin $0.9 billion
Total $6.1 billion and thats a small part of a $50 billion chemo drug market that we could eventually target.
As these are generic and either off patent or about to come off patent, they are reasonably cheap (Duxorubican I think is $17 a pop),a pro drug version of these could easily be sold for double and still be a cheap treatment. Who in their right mind would want to save a $17 on a less efficent chemo drug? Nobody the whole market would be for the pro version.
Also the pro drugs will take the complete market share from the standard drug.
$6.1 billion x Double the cost = $12.2 billion
As well as this the amount of pro chemo drug safely taken can easily be doubled or tripled, lets say double.
$12.2 bllion x twice as much product sales = $24.4 billion
Again the pro drug can be taken by lots more patients that otherwise could not due to health issues such as a weak heart etc. Say a 25% increase in patient numbers.
$24.4 biliion +25% amount of patients= $30.5 bilion
There are a lot of unscrupulous charcacters on this BB that would try to make you believe that revenues from PreCision will be many years away.
Well we heard from the horses mouth in todays interview that we will have data on prodoxorubican by end 2021 and if successful that will enable our other 3 prochemo drugs to move immediately into trials.
AS also said that due to duxirubican being a well known and understood drug means AVA6000 will be ready to go after phase 2 trials, phase 3 is not needed, phase 2 will be "pivotal" and give "market approval".
Ignoring the Covid opportunities, all the other diagnostics, the many collaborations, joint venture, TMAC and god knows whatever else pops up along the way, you can see why AS mentions us in same breath as Abbott, Roche etc.
We are lucky to be in here early as the possibilities are mind blowing, obviously I recommend long term hold for gold!
PSB i have no idea how to estimate the next 6 months but I am extremely confident that Avacta will do very well.
I hate to go on about PreCision but that is what I have my hopes on far more than whatever the lift will be from our LFT.
When I do the math for PreCision platform I come up with potentially over £100 billion mcap for this alone.
Then there are the other multi billion markets our diagnosiics are targeting, the TMAC drug conjugates, the huge antibody market, our partships and JV.
The possibilities for Avacta are truly staggering and im extremely happy to be in at this stage.
PSB i have no idea how to estimate the next 6 months but I am extremely confident that Avacta will do very well.
Hate to go on about PreCision but that is what I have my hopes on far more than whatever the lift will be from our LFT.
When I do the math for PreCision platform I come up with potentially over £100 billion mcap for this alone.
Then there are the other multi billion markets our diagnosiics are targeting, the TMAC drug conjugates, the antibody market
I never really got the SAE USP, its supposed to be green energy but its just incinerating the waste pellets, I never understood the enthusiasm from the likes of Mcnulty and Richken either.
Could be wrong but I think its still 50% the emissions of coal fired.
Always fancied PHE waste solution as a better option, unfortunately sold out there way to soon :(
Goldtrig no antigen test detects antibodies??
Btw i hope all holders here do well I only posted to counter what I see as unfactual and misleading info to investors.
Gla
Tech and anyone else who does mot fully undersrand the relevance of various results please educate yourselves.
AS has been educating the masses on PPV and NPV since June last year.
https://avacta.com/how-diagnostic-test-performance-is-measured/
Also for CT and PCR comparison;
Avacta's SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen test has been developed to identify infectious individuals so that they can isolate promptly and reduce the spread of COVID-19. A recent report from the Liverpool Covid SMART Pilot Study1 indicates that individuals with COVID-19 infection had a significant chance of infecting their contacts if they had a viral load measured by PCR, called the Ct value (cycle threshold value), of approximately 25 or lower. The Ct value indicates how many PCR cycles are required to amplify the viral RNA so that it can be detected and a lower Ct value indicates a higher viral load.
The initial evaluation of Avacta's lateral flow rapid antigen test with clinical samples has been carried out at two sites, one in EU and one in the UK using patient samples with viral loads confirmed by PCR. 30 positive samples were tested with Ct values of 26 and below, with half of those in the range 22-26, and the lateral flow test identified 29/30 of these correctly as positive. This indicates a clinical sensitivity of 96.7% for samples with a Ct value below 26. Importantly, out of a total of 26 negative samples tested with the lateral flow device, the test correctly identified all 26 as negative, giving a clinical specificity of 100%. High specificity is critical for a lateral flow test for mass screening so that large numbers of false positives are not generated which would create a major burden on follow-on testing resources, and result in a significant socio-economic cost of unnecessarily isolating people
Notech that makes no sense whatsoever, you are misleading ppl with your ignorance, anyone invested in these type of shares that doesnt understand S&S, CT values, PPV etc are mugs
Mologic initial trial 28ppl 92/100 S&S unknown CT values.
Avacta initial trial 58ppl 97.5/100 S&S CT <26
Mologic CV 90/99 S&S CT <25
Avacta CV TBC bear in mind the higher CT value of 26 vs 25
Unless there is a significant change in Avacta CV versus the lab then im afraid Mologic AG LFT is blown out of the water.