imt30 Jan 2013 20:22
First quarter trading update: The announcement disappointed investors, with the share price down by nearly 5% as of mid morning trade. Management underlined a "challenging" macro environment, noting that "market trends had worsened in a number of key markets including in the European Union (EU) and Russia." As a result and given the group's ongoing investment plans, the board expects first half adjusted operating profit to be down year on year. In the EU, Imperial estimated that the legal stick equivalent market size was currently down around 5% with the legal cigarette market size down around 7%.
More positively, and reflecting the benefits of an accelerated cost optimisation programme, expectations for the full year remain unchanged. The board expects that around 55% of adjusted operating profits will be delivered in the second half. Furthermore, the company continued to highlight growth momentum in key markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, while stick equivalent volumes for fine cut tobacco grew by 9%, underwritten by strong growth in make your own tobacco in Western and Central Europe. Furthermore, in Australia, despite the recent introduction of plain packaging, the first few weeks had seen no significant change in consumption trends.
On balance, whilst the group's dividend yield (over 4% as of 30 January 2013 - not guaranteed) remains attractive in the current low interest rate environment, we believe that current favourable analyst opinion may come under near term downward pressure.