Member Info for Isengard7

you always here the cliche of seek professional advice or seek financial advice. Blackrock an investment company endorses this strategy. http://www.blackrock.co.uk/content/groups/uksite/documents/literature/1111079349.pdf

my research suggest a recession 1 every decade on average. July 1981 – November 1982: 15 months July 1990 – March 1991: 8 months March 2001 – November 2001: 8 months December 2007 – June 2009: 18 months Maybe another one in 2017 lol

I would argue its not quite the same averaging down. if you would invest 5k in a lump sum. at say 10p. with PCA your investing the 5k in a 12 month period. With lump sum investing you would invest 5k in one go. and then attempt to average down with additional money if the stock plummets. Pound cost averaging is just drip feeding regardless of how the price moves. so you buy more shares when the price is down and less when the price is up. so it helps to provide smoother returns. But I i can't say how effective this is. I am experiment with small money with Fitb.

That's why I switched now to pound cost averaging instead of lump sum investing. Because timing the entry and exit is not an exact science so easy and more effortless to just do pound cost averaging. Just trialling this with FITB. if it works out I could be doing it on all my investments going forwards.

i took the NAV at face value based on August 14 accounts. when I saw all the "warners" for a lack of a better term. I thought how can they be de ramping a share with the NAVPS of whatever it was. it just didn't make any sense so i shrugged it all off. and i knew crude slump was cause the company to tank. but i invested on the basis of it being a recovery share. but then when i made a big loss i didn't want to sell it thinking i can recover my losses if I hold on longer. before you know it it spirals down then its suspended lol.

GG, your right on the finance and numbers post. Problem is that I have realised now is that oil companies including Afren were overvalued in the first place. The crude oil slump facilitated a market correction for most oil companies in the form of massive impairments. What I didn't realise at the time was that Afren figures may have looked great back in August 14 but in the end turned out to be absurd valuations.

might as well try and find a buyer for Ebok. bought for $300m I recall. might get $30m for it we're lucky?

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx bad time to go into admin. off-topic. but in some petrol stations you can purchase diesel cheaper than unleaded.

GG, you might be right. But for sake of my holding I am anticipating that there is a chance they could come out of admin. worst time to go into admin with the crude price so blood* low.

its a learning experience. you learn a lot from the losses. And if Warren Buffett can hold his hand up to say he made big mistakes. Then I should be capable of dusting myself off and try win my money back on other stocks taking this experience with me and improving etc.

GG, i didn't dig deep enough in to the corporate governance and the history. I am a finance and numbers guy. I have a dangerous habit over overlooking the words in favour of the numbers. I knew it was highly leveraged but it seemed normal for the industry. And the figures looked good in August 14 and October 14. and the stuff about the payment scandal I thought that would have just been a blip. and underestimated the impact of crude slump. but I have learnt from this and won't be falling for this trap again lol

Also planning to make my money back on other stocks going forwards. I was a newbie when I invested in Afren. I have learnt a lot from it.. http://fortune.com/2015/02/28/warren-buffett-my-100-billion-blunder/ Interestingly Warren Buffett said he made a $100bn blunder. sort of makes me feel better LOL Going forwards my investment journey should be more lucrative.

The seplat offer was below the debt level according tot he microsite. the seplat offer so was just as bad as a No vote. lol

i think most of the shorts are closed........

Hi GG, I am drip feeding into FITB. I am in VOD for dividend reinvestment. Compounding etc. Afren turned out to be big disaster. for me. I should have listened to the people warning on here but I shrugged it off thinking they were shorting he problem was that I should have asked why they were shorting. lol I didn't realise how bad the finances were as the interim results on the 31st October 2014 or August 14 accounts didn't look that bad lol But you had many warning on here back in Feb. You also had tom winnifrith, Waseem Shakhoor and Mould etc But I guess I got caught up in the hype. Still a chance it could come out of admin. Some companies do survive admin. Alstom comes to mind is an example albeit not an oil company lol

cheers.

Agreed.

Boxerdog would still be crying in his pillow.

Peteb It was also in the 19th June debt restructuring RNS So the company already knew they would need it ages ago. and could have done a rights issue back in June. or even back in March. its very easy to poke holes like this but its a shame they won't be transparent about it.

looks like they weren't bluffing. looks like they've given up on Afren.